Ukraine Struggles to Restructure Its Sovereign Debt

当阿根廷在去年在过去十年中经历了第二个债务违约时，由于与美国法律制度一同，许多专家警告说，案件将对一些其他主权借款人产生负面影响。乌克兰即将发现这些担忧是否良好。

KYIV正在寻求与其国际债权人达成协议，在未来三年内将其未偿还债务的偿还债务支付为152亿美元。根据债权国政府和国际货币基金组织早些时候同意的4000亿美元的救助计划，要求赢得新的援助奖项所需的减少。

Unlike most sovereign borrowers that have diversified their sources of funding, the bulk of Ukraine’s external, private-sector debt is held by just four investment managers: BTG Pactual Europe, Franklin Templeton, T. Rowe Price andTCW集团。这些公司拥有89亿美元的乌克兰230亿美元的未偿还债务，已形成债权人委员会来捍卫他们的利益。他们表示，他们不愿意接受其债券价值的主要减少，但据报道，他们建议延伸到期日，并提供对利率的宣传权。乌克兰人于5月拒绝了乌克兰人拒绝申请申请担保的利息支付的提案。

乌克兰财政部长娜塔莉贾斯科于6月19日宣布，本周她将达到债权人委员会谈判有关债务重组。她坚持认为，解决方案必须涉及委托人和利率减少的混合，而不仅仅是债权人提出的延长的内疚关系。

Jaresko表示，乌克兰已在6月份达到私人债权人的利息。俄罗斯财政部官员周一表示，乌克兰在俄罗斯政府持有的欧洲欧元兑欧元兑美元汇率达到了利息。虽然Kyiv在乌克兰东部的分离主义反叛分子支持分离主义叛乱分子时，虽然似乎奇怪的是，但由于国际货币基金组织规则禁止向另一个国际货币基金组织违约债权债务违约的国家禁止救助。只要主权从事善意的谈判，就欠私人债权人的债务是不正确的。

乌克兰对欠债务减少的需求，被IMF总经理由IMF董事总经理的声明展示了Christine Lagarde谁在6月19日说，开始谈判是为了开始谈判，使得国际货币基金组织将能够通过抵押责任政策继续支持乌克兰，如果不能达成与债权人的谈判协议。

Andrew Wilkinson是一个伦敦威尔，Gotshal＆Manges的伦敦合作伙伴，代表债权人小组，告诉亚博赞助欧冠乌克兰有机会快速处理债权人，但他也警告了这个国家可能遭受的国家same fate as Argentinaif it doesn’t agree.

“阿根廷是一个模特来展示乌克兰应该避免的东西，”威尔金森在一封电子邮件中写道。“阿根廷仍然违约了多年后，它试图重组并正在处理多重诉讼，因为债权人附加资产并试图阻止支付系统作为违约的直接结果。”

Argentina’s plight stems from a series of court victories by NML Capital, an arm of the Paul Singer–controlled hedge fund firm Elliott Capital Management that owns bonds that were restructured by Argentina. U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa ruled that the so-called pari passu clause in Argentina’s original bond offering, standard boilerplate used to grant equal status to different creditors, meant that the country cannot pay bondholders who agreed to the restructuring without also making the same percentage payments to NML Capital on the bonds it owns.

Griesa’s decision, upheld by an appellate court, was seen by legal scholars as a sweeping rewriting of the rules of sovereign debt default, giving new powers to holdout bondholders. Collective action clauses in new bond deals, which set the terms under which a majority of bondholders can vote to accept a restructuring, may eventually prevent future legal actions, but Richard Kozul-Wright, a director at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, estimates that there are $900 billion to $1 trillion in emerging market bonds outstanding with the old language that could be affected by Griesa’s ruling. Ukraine andVenezuelaare just two of the nations talking about restructuring debt that they cannot afford to repay.

“We went from a world where muscular enforcement was just not a possibility to a world where muscular and disruptive enforcement is very much a reality, and that is just a very fundamental shift,” says Anna Gelpern, a law professor at Georgetown University who has written extensively on sovereign debt. “It’s the best collection device since gunboat diplomacy and certainly the most generalizable one. So I think that if you can use it, you should and you would. “

Although Ukraine’s borrowings differ from Argentina’s in some important respects — the country issued bonds under English law instead of the American law used by Argentina, for instance — there is still the possibility of a big legal fight. “I would expect either or both sides to get very aggressive or at least threaten very aggressive legal tactics,” Gelpern said.

全球合作伙伴的新兴市场领导的Michael Ganske表示，虽然今年乌克兰债券上的信贷违约掉期的价格似乎似乎似乎迫在眉睫，但CDS汇率已扩大今年年初的3077个基点是违约的担忧已经发展。

谈判复杂化是富兰克林·坦普敦的局势。迈克尔·全球债券基金经理Michael Hasentab曾在乌克兰债券上进行了巨额70亿美元，并于5月中旬坐落于3亿美元的造纸。甘克说，他认为富兰克林·斯坦普顿稳定地偿还了更多的债务，强化了其谈判职位。

“我认为乌克兰将是一个很长的过程，”米兰投资经理Arca的新兴市场基金经理Guiliano Palumbo说。“我不认为国际货币基金组织将借钱给乌克兰偿还俄罗斯或俄罗斯将使乌克兰不会偿还其30亿美元的债务。这个过程持续时间持续，不确定程度越高，债券的价格将下降，对冲基金将较近鱼类的可能性越大。“

委内瑞拉也被搁置现金，可能正在考虑重新安排其债务，但专家表示，该国比阿根廷或乌克兰更容易受到外部压力的影响。委内瑞拉是一家石油出口国，所以它在许多金融机构中拥有美元资产，因为投资者可以追求。此外，美国石油炼油厂的花旗由委内瑞拉国家石油公司所有，并将为寻求收集债务的对冲基金制定多汁的目标。

北卡罗来纳大学副教授Mark C. Weidemaier表示，阿根廷法律案例的后果可能远远达到。

“我们有可能是最显着的成功，肯定在过去20或30年里，在主权债务的背景下，在时尚友好友好友好的法律上，”威达尔说。Griesa Ruling为投资者如何利用法院对违约主权债务执行索赔的蓝图提供了一个蓝图，以及“您不需要尽可能地重新投资，”他补充道。

The Argentine ruling has been put to the test in only one other case, when the tiny Caribbean island of Grenada defaulted on $32 million worth of bonds and was sued by the Taiwan government-owned Export-Import Bank of China over its pari passu clause. But Grenada settled the suit before it came to trial.

案件提出的另一个问题是新兴市场国家是否将于美国弃出美国。作为发行场地，以避免陷入法律后果。

Rodrigo Olivares-Caminal, a professor of banking and finance law at the Center for Commercial Law Studies at Queen Mary University in London, believes that may happen. “If I am an issuer, I would think twice before going to the U.S.,” Olivares-Caminal said. “I might be more inclined to go to the U.K. rather than the U.S.”

他说，一个原因是，英国法院对债券合约的帕迪公布条款不同，而不是拥有美国法院，以便他们不太可能授予被称为可被扣除的议定书（如）对冲基金。

他指出,希腊,发布了国际al bonds under English law, chose to pay off those bonds in full rather than try to restructure them and face a lawsuit in the British courts. But less than 10 percent of Greece’s bonds were in English law; the rest were issued under local law.

With English law applying to the Ukraine bonds, the government would have to win the approval of two thirds of bondholders to amend the terms of its bonds. Because Franklin Templeton owns more than 33 percent of the bonds outright, it has a blocking vote that can prevent the government from putting in place a restructuring plan.

Georgetown的Gelpern表示，乌克兰的Pari Passu条款似乎在乌克兰法律下授予豁免偏好，似乎仍然留下乌克兰的可能性，在没有违反债券的限制的情况下，乌克兰立法合作。英国法官是否与法官统治不同，而Gresea在这一点上是一个巨大的未知。

“The irony is that muscular enforcement and disruption do not necessarily bring about money for the creditors,” says Gelpern, who notes that NML Capital hasn’t received any money yet despite its legal victories against Argentina. •

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