沙特股市开放与小粉丝很少有

上周，一个主要的新兴市场国家将其大门开设了跨国投资者。好吧，有点。

正如已有的那样反复承诺, Saudi authorities changed the ground rules on June 15 to allow qualified foreign investors (QFIs) — those that manage at least $5 billion and have five years in business under their belts — to directly buy equities on the Tadawul, the Saudi stock exchange. That access replaces a cumbersome promissory note system that had kept foreign participation minimal. With market capitalization around $550 billion, Saudi Arabia jostles with墨西哥for the No. 7 spot among global emerging markets, just behind South Africa and ahead of a俄罗斯已经通过制裁权衡了。热情的国内零售投资者在蝌蚪上市的170家公司中列出的170家公司中，推动交易量超过20亿美元。

Multinational capital did not visibly jump at this new opportunity, though. The new Saudi regulations allow foreigners to own in aggregate up to 10 percent of the market and 20 percent of any one company. No single investor can amass more than 5 percent of a company’s shares. Early responses to the market opening indicate that reaching even these limited ceilings will be a slow process.

“我们看到了很多柔软的爆炸而不是一个大的爆炸，”迪拜的中东和北非股票负责人Bassel Khatoun说，在富兰克林·坦普尔顿竞技场。一个原因是塔德瓦尔纳入MSCI新兴市场指数之前的两个年度滞后，许多全球投资者基准其投资组合。“沙特股票市场过于开发，不包括在新兴市场篮子中，”日内瓦的MSCI指数研究执行董事Sebastien Lieblich告诉了Wall Street Journal。But he predicted that would come in mid-2017 at the earliest.

The Saudis’ management of their market launch did not help matters, though. Riyadh’s Capital Market Authority (CMA), after a long period of laconic hints at a市场开放, rushed the actual process. Final regulations were issued May 15, with applications accepted June 1 for a June 15 launch. HSBC Holdings was the only broker that actually met the deadline and received license No. 1. Half a dozen others are still preparing paperwork, Khatoun says. Templeton itself is waiting for “clarification” of some thorny details, like the requirement that end-purchasers work in the kingdom through only one QFI.

投资者also may be discouraged by the CMA’s attachment to a so-called T+0, or full prepayment, regime for stock purchases, Khatoun says. The global norm is T+3, giving purchasers three days to settle trades, although the Saudis are unlikely to adopt that standard, Khatoun predicts. A steady trickle of investment may suit the Saudis’ needs, says Arindam Das, who head the Middle East and Africa for HSBC Securities Services. Domestic investors provide a ready pool of capital, but trading is dominated by retail investors whose sentiments can be volatile and who place few demands on management. The Tadawul index fell by one quarter in two months last autumn after a 60 percent rise over the previous year. The market has risen by 10 percent this year, even as oil prices steadied, partly in anticipation of foreign investors’ entry, Das says. “The main aim of the reform is not really to bring in more money,” he says. “It is to moderate herding behavior and improve governance.”

The Saudi economy promises healthy growth even if oil prices hover near their current level of about $65 a barrel, enthusiasts argue. The World Bank expects the benchmark Brent crude price to average less than $70 until 2020. The Saudis prepared for this downturn, though, with fiscal prudence over the past decade. The kingdom is paying off a national debt thatonce reached 100 percent of gross domestic product， 和has piled up $750 billion in reserves. (These have now shrunk to $686 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund.)

That hoard enables the Saudi government to peg the Saudi riyal to the dollar, minimizing the currency risk that plagues other emerging markets. The state can maintain budgetary spending for some years to come, enabling the economic expansion that could naturally be expected from the nation’s vigorous demographics. The Saudi population has quadrupled over the past generation and continues to grow at 1.6 percent a year, with 2 out of 3 citizens below age 30. The country’s per capita GDP of $52,800 on a purchasing power parity basis is more than double the $24,800 of Russia, the richest of the so-called BRIC nations, according to theCIA世界的事实簿。“沙特阿拉伯是结合规模和财富的少数新兴市场国家之一，”DAS说。

迪拜投资公司全国投资者的资产管理负责人Sebastien Henin表示，所有股市的面向消费者的股市都是那些的所有博彩，都控制了约1亿美元。“这实际上是一个健康多元化的市场，而不是由俄罗斯或巴西这样的石油公司主导的市场，”他说。（原油垄断者沙特阿美可依赖于100％的国有。）河内特别热衷于伊斯兰贷方Al Rajhi银行。他还喜欢沙特蓝芯片石化生产者SABIC，它在原材料成本中享有全球竞争对手的永久优势。

Despite these attractions, HSBC’s expectations for the Saudi stock market are modest. Das predicts $24 billion in foreign inflows by the time the Tadawul enters the MSCI global index, less than half the 10 percent of market cap that the law allows. Saudi regulators may need to open the door a bit wider to reach that target.

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