How Grexit Might Affect the Euro Zone Equities Rally

The specter of aGrexit from the eurois back. If it comes, euro zone bond and equity markets are not likely to be struck by panic but will instead “ride out the storm,” says Tom Elliott, international investment strategist at financial advisory organization deVere Group in London.

“I think the weakness, if any, will be on peripheral European stock markets in Italy, Portugal,Spain, Ireland — the ones that were in trouble before,” Elliott says. “I don’t think we need to worry too much about damaging the German DAX and the French CAC.”

Any potential shock to euro zone equities would be muted by the same force that led investors to crowd into such funds in the first place, says Elliott. And that would be the January 22 commitment byEuropean Central Bank president Mario Draghi到1万亿欧元（1.1万亿美元）的定量宽松计划。每月公共和私营部门证券购买€600亿欧元将在2016年9月底至少持续到2016年底 - 或者直到欧元区通胀向欧洲央行迁移到欧洲央行的2％的目标税率。

尽管担心of aGreek default据基于格鲁吉亚的金融数据公司的威尔蒂塔·玛丽蒂塔的第一季度，由基于格鲁吉亚的财务数据公司的普遍存在的第一季度，悬挂在欧洲经济和货亚博赞助欧冠币联盟的机构投资者对欧元区股权基金的净流量负责。将欧元区股权资产的总额达到387亿美元。单一交易所交易基金，出口商 - 重型智慧欧洲对冲股票基金（HEDJ），据Incestment表示，占第一季度的106亿美元或几乎所有的基金进入欧元区。ETF的18.2％的百分比将其归还于96个欧元区股权基金中的第1条，这是一个积累的追踪。它的三年是18.55％的回报也将其放在课堂顶部。

“如果欧元贬值进一步，我们认为欧洲出口商可以在欧洲贬值的情况下，欧洲出口商在其产品中增加其盈利，”纽约智斯智慧研究副主任Christopher Gannatti主任Christopher Gannatti总监，这些指数和创造了基于这些指数的投资产品。他的积极观点是由美国经济的持续相对的经济实力挥之不挡，与欧洲和市场预期相比，美联储将hike its federal funds rate by the end of the year, with the potential to push the U.S. dollar higher and make European exports more competitive.

据芝加哥晨星的所有资金研究人员和研究人员高级分析师和经理，介绍了一种熟悉的模式，遵循熟悉的模式。投资者作为货币对冲日本ETF在2013年和2014年起飞，以应对日本央行的量化宽松。由于欧洲央行宣布今年年初类似的举动，投资者跃入货币对冲欧元区ETF，期待类似的结果。并且，OEY说：“这是一个很好的电话。”

Since the start of 2015, HEDJ has been getting a run for its money from two newer, rival euro zone equity ETFs, according to Oey. BlackRock’s iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Eurozone ETF (HEZU) has topped HEDJ’s 16.3 percent return year-to-date as of June 29, with 17.3 percent over that same period, according to Morningstar. And the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EMU Hedged Equity ETF (DBEZ) has returned 18.4 percent year-to-date as of June 29. The BlackRock and Deutsche ETFs are market-cap-weighted indexes.

There are signs the euro zone equity rally is losing a bit of steam, though. HEDJ’s monthly net inflows peaked this year at $5.03 billion in March, slowed to $2.6 billion in April, $617 million in May and $578.4 million for the first 29 days of June. Elliott points to a swoon on the DAX that began in April as a sign of the sagging outlook. Worries about liquidity in the German Bund market spilled over into equities, prompting profit-taking by investors who had seen a big run-up in German stocks, according to Elliott. The DAX rose 26 percent by April 10 before a correction pushed it to a year-to-date gain of 11.7 percent by June 17.

Is it too late to get into euro zone equities? No, says Todd Rosenbluth, senior director and director of ETF and mutual fund research for the U.S. at S&P Capital IQ in New York, because the weak euro will persist as long as the ECB pursues its quantitative easing program. “This should give a tailwind for the European economy and thus to companies in European funds,” he says. He expects the European economy to gradually improve — but not enough to lead the ECB to wind down quantitative easing in the immediate future. There is, however, says Elliott, a chance that the ECB might wind down its bond-buying program before September 2016, if there are more signs of economic improvement.

In the case of a Greek default, expect volatility in bonds and equities in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland as investors worry which country might be next. With volatility will come tempting “standout opportunities,” Elliott predicts. Step in cautiously, he urges, and avoid a portfolio overweight in euro zone equities.

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