A Year After Oil Prices Fell, Supply and Demand Take Charge

7月标志着油价突然暴跌一周年，从每桶大约105美元到45美元。这一直没有普通价格下降。下降促进了全球原油市场的长期特征的变化。沙特阿拉伯去年决定追逐市场份额，而不是在传统的作用中作为石油价格监管机构Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)。

As a result, the output of U.S., rather than Saudi, producers will likely determine oil prices in the near future. The question now appears to be, How far and how fast — if at all — prices will rise?

Today’s crude oil narrative begins withAmerican shale deposits, which have allowed the U.S. to leapfrog Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. In a June research note, Edward Morse, global head of commodity research at Citigroup in New York, called this “the most politically disruptive situation in oil markets in decades.” In reaction to this change, Saudi Arabia, after decades of willingness to export less to control prices, decided instead to sell as much as it could. That decision, added to the supply glut U.S. production helped create, triggered last year’s bear market in oil prices. At times this year, production in Saudi Arabia has surpassed 10 million barrels per day, touching record levels. Other OPEC members have followed, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Without a high-output market willing to step in and act as the swing producer, as Saudi Arabia once did, market forces are now in control. When prices fall, producers with higher costs are likely to shut down operations, balancing supply and demand rather than relying on the Saudis to do so. That process is under way now. Drilling in the U.S. has declined in reaction to falling oil prices, with the number of active rigs dropping for 29 consecutive weeks and counting, according to Baker Hughes, the oil field services provider whose weekly drilling updates are the industry’s accepted indicator.

像莫尔斯这样的预测者不再是每桶20美元的娱乐思想，在2月份被认为是可能的，当时原油交易低于每桶50美元。随着德州，西德克萨斯中级和其他原油基准在过去几个月徘徊在60美元左右，市场观察人员现在正在努力确定供应是否已经足够平衡需求，或者更多需要走。Francisco Blanch纽约美国银行Merrill Lynch全球研究的全球商品和衍生品研究负责人认为，未来几个月，原油价格可能会滑倒。“有很多生活在边缘的球员，现金流量耗尽并坚持希望价格恢复将被淘汰出局，”他说。“我们需要看到这些玩家中的一些消失或合并。”

One factor likely to help that consolidation is the expectation that the Federal Reserve willraise interest rates this year他说，提高美国生产商的融资成本。Blanch认为，在短暂的下降淘汰最高成本的生产商之后，原油将在未来两年内升起，但不高于70美元的桶。莫尔斯，在他的6月研究说明中，建议价格需要保持低于75美元，以阻止高成本的生产商。

Another possible catalyst for a short-term price drop would be the return of Iranian oil exports to formal markets. If negotiations under way to restrain the country’s nuclear program bear fruit, winding down sanctions against the country in the process, Iran is likely to quickly sell anywhere from 30 million to 50 million barrels from inventory the country has stored in oil tankers at sea. That could mean a short period of excess supply and low prices. Over the long term, an Iranian return would clear the way for foreign oil companies to invest in the country. Iran has the potential to add 600,000 barrels per day to the global market in the first year after the lifting of sanctions, says Blanch. Large additions beyond that would require investment in new projects.

其他geopolitical wild cards include Iraq and Libya, which are producing below potential and could add even more competition for market share if security and political stability improve.

在价格方程的需求方面，过去12个月的原油价格下降revived consumers’ appetites。根据IEA的6月，对2014年第二季度的粗暴产品的需求触及了2014年第二季度的五年低位，但反弹了石油市场报告。In the first half of 2015, daily deliveries averaged 93.3 million barrels per day, up 1.6 million from the same period a year earlier. U.S. consumers are driving more, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration, with the total miles traveled up 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2015. According to Blanch, demand is also coming from China, where vehicle sales are rising.

Overall, the uptick in oil consumption refutes the belief, popular until the slump last year, that demand for crude had peaked. That expectation was based on fuel-efficiency gains for cars, fears overclimate change令人沮丧的使用和降低可再生能源技术的成本。The past year shows that consumers are still willing to use more oil when it’s cheap, and that suggests that excess supply in the market could be snapped up and trigger higher costs and a reawakening of drilling activity, says Jeff Bellman, North American energy analyst at TIAA-CREF Asset Management in New York. He expects oil prices to approach $90 a barrel by the end of 2016: “The oil market looks a lot better than what I see as the consensus. The seeds are being sown for a better price recovery.”