在崩溃后，中国市场接下来是什么？

在过去的一年中，它似乎好像中国的股票市场无处可去，直到突然间秋天。现在在疯狂的官方努力停止溃败，投资者想知道新发现稳定将持续多久，以及北京对市场力量承诺的遗体。

Panic selling erased an estimated $3.2 trillion in value from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in the past few weeks, prompting authorities to pull out all the stops to prevent a market collapse. Support measures included the creation by Chinese brokerages of a 120 billion yuan ($19.3 billion) market stabilization fund, the extension by state-owned entity China Securities Finance Corp. of 260 billion yuan of credit to brokerages for stock purchases, the imposition of a temporary ban on stock sales by major shareholders and an official investigation of more than ten institutions and individuals for “malicious short selling.” Propaganda officials even began enforcing a ban on media outlets’ reporting news of distraught investors hurling themselves off of skyscrapers after seeing massive losses in their portfolios.

这些行动至少现在停止了抛售。上海综合指数在7月9日至7月13日之间的三个会议上集中了13.2％，在7月14日才超过1％之前。在3,294人，该指数从6月12日下降了24％，但仍然近90％一年前。

然而，沉重的干预使许多中国观察员质疑政府对市场导向的经济改革和金融自由化的承诺。在一年前开始的市场反弹在很大程度上被这种措施加剧，包括允许自由利用保证金交易，或借来的金钱购买股票的举措，以及上海和香港之间的直接交易联系。

“Recent efforts to rescue the market can be seen as major steps backward for reform,” says Victor Shih, associate professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at UC San Diego. The six-month ban on stock sales by major shareholders is particularly worrying, he says. “If the government can do this to some of its most privileged citizens, foreign investors may be even more vulnerable to asset seizures,” Shih says. “The recent events show that the Chinese government prizes control and stability above all other objectives.”

Beijing’s relaxation of curbs on margin trading in recent years played a big role in the market’s rally — and sudden downturn. “There is no question that valuations were stretched, and licensed leverage levels had grown significantly,” notes Paul Schulte, chief executive of Schulte Research International, a Hong Kong–based independent research house. “But these levels of leverage by licensed brokers was within limits. However, there was a high level of curb lending that was not licensed and was not being counted and which was illegal.”

海通证券有限公司中国second-largest broker, estimates that as much as 1 trillion yuan in margin funds have flowed into the market outside of regulated channels, on top of some 2.3 trillion yuan in regulated margin loans from brokerages. On July 12, regulators moved to clamp down on shadow margin lending by instructing brokerages to review trades and enforce rules requiring the use of real names and identification numbers for margin trades.

过去一年的股票价格急剧上涨刺激了6月份市场坦克前的泡沫的警告。4月初，新加坡新加坡董事长大型市场董事长400亿美元新兴市场，中国股市在世界殴打的一揽子基准股票到七年的最高水平之后，中国股市涨幅太快了，20％的撤退是“很可能”。他指出，中国投资者开设了新的股票账户的记录数量，并将保证金债务增加至历史新高。

Last week Mobius was more optimistic, contending in a7月9日博客帖子中国股市的暴力回调几乎运行了其课程，并且他正在寻找价值。“我认为我们可能正在接近中国的投资点，”他写道。“我们应该尽快看到短期反弹，并且许多投资者在之前​​没有出去过的投资者可能会使用那种举措。然后，在市场希望恢复之前，我们希望看到侧面行动，提供估值是好的。“

私人投资公司董事长肯尼斯·托管，亚洲亚洲高盛副副主席兼亚洲高盛，回应了莫梅斯的情绪。The question many investors are asking is whether China is in the beginning phases of an epic crash, similar to what occurred in Japan after the bubble popped in 1989 and to the U.S. stock market crash of 1929, or whether the setback is comparable to the violent but short-lived correction of the U.S. market in 1987, which was followed by a 12-year-long bull market. “I would say for the moment it is more the latter than the former,” says Courtis. “That is a vicious correction within what would be later seen as a new bull market which started a year ago. The market would have to fall another 30 percent to 40 percent before we could really say this is a super-duper bear market with potentially devastating consequences.”

Others are not so sanguine. Andy Xie, an independent strategist in Shanghai, notes that the authorities had encouraged a market rally in part to help the economy digest a growing mountain of bad debts left over from an earlier stimulus program, back in 2008–’09. “The chances are that China’s financial crisis has begun,” Xie says. “The game of ramping up asset prices to cover up bad debts is coming to an end.”

Not all top policymakers in Beijing agree with the approach the government has taken so far. “This time the stock crisis will become a very bad thing for Chinese, also for the world,” says a senior Finance Ministry official who is advising Premier Li Keqiang on the crisis, and who spoke on condition of anonymity. “My team and I are angry with the method used to deal with the crisis. This way is wrong and a waste of resources. We are trying to change the way to allow for true market-driven mechanisms.”

该官员表示，中国的实验与保证金交易和卖空不会结束，但是，监督将被收紧，以便在受监管经纪房屋之外的条款外，并对非法活动施加僵硬的罚款。“休息放心，股市崩盘不会在中国结束金融创新，”官方说。“但我们将研究出错的是什么，并强加新的机制，使市场更可持续。”

跟随艾伦成在推特上@acheng87.