股市不是真正的经济。Mantra似乎被许多参与世界各地评估信用风险的人被带到心中。
一个尖锐物中国股票下降在过去的两个月里触发了一场比赛全球财务波动，将股票推入大多数主要市场的纠正领域，并引起了全球经济健康的关注。然而，根据最新的情况，全球信誉仍然非常稳定亚博赞助欧冠国家信用调查。调查中179个国家的平均评分从六个月前没有改变，44.1，以零到100的规模。主要工业化国家的评级甚至在欧元区表现出很少的运动。拉丁美洲，非洲，中东和东欧各国之间存在许多下降，但这些在很大程度上被一些亚洲评分所增加的增加。
在半年调查中，这种之曲和扎塔斯是典型的。这次是不寻常的是运动的小规模。大多数UPS和下跌不超过一两点，更像是技术校正，而不是心灵的变化。唯一的重要例外，毫不奇怪，是Greece在6月和7月与其欧元区合作伙伴的欧元区合作伙伴在违约之中前往违约的边缘。该国的评级还有10.5分;希腊现在在调查中排名第145次，夹在缅甸和多哥之间。
“Things move in cycles in geopolitics and in the economy,” says Admiral James Stavridis, “and as we come out of a period of real political turbulence, particularly in the Arab world, it’s looking like the economic drivers are going to be coming into play.” But Stavridis, the dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in suburban Boston, and Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO from 2009 to 2013, says it’s not yet clear where those drivers are propelling the global economy.
“人们正在等待和看见态度，”荷兰的rabobank经济学家Fabian Briegel说。信誉是踩水，因为好消息从未足够好，而坏消息永远不会灾难性。等待其他鞋子的感觉渗透了五个关键问题。
最大的问号是中国。它的评级仅为1.1分，国家实际上升起了一个地方，到25日，但观察者越来越担心：股票市场危机和最近的货币贬值展示了一个真正的崩溃，这是一个对世界混响的气泡的破裂？或者所有这一切都只是从超快速增长率转换到较低轨迹的国家的噪音？虽然年生长6％或7％可能意味着中国脱离类固醇，但它仍将是任何主要国家的最高利率之一。
Western Europe, meanwhile, seems to be sorting itself out, says Stavridis. In Greece the Syriza government of prime minister Alexis Tsipras came in with a bang, demanding debt relief from its European partners, but ended with a whimper, negotiating yet another bailout last month. Not only does Greece plummet in this survey, some 68.9 percent of respondents predict its rating will decline further over the next year, and 98.6 percent say it will default within two years. Despite Greece’s ongoing struggles, however, ratings for the rest of Europe have stopped falling. Stavridis attributes this to growing confidence that “the Europeans, as usual, will muddle through.”
美国，美国稳定，不确定的增长路径仍然是稳定的，不稳定的第二季度国内生产总值的修改。大问题继续旋转美联储董事会. The turmoil in China and the sharp drop on Wall Street led many analysts, and some Fed insiders, to suggest that another postponement of the first rate hike might be in order, but the message coming out of the Kansas City Fed’s annualJackson Hole symposium在8月底，指出，今年仍然在牌中仍然在牌中。调查受访者似乎有信心这次美联储不会眨眼：74.7％表示，它将在下半年提高利率;24.0％认为它将在2016年上半年搬家。
对于大多数高级国家来说，毫无疑问是众多的评分。Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Deviond International研究学院的Afshin Molavi表示，这肯定是工业化国家的案例，他是牛津分析的高级顾问。“美国正在表现出谦虚增长的迹象;欧洲正在表现出适度增长的迹象。它绝不是令人印象深刻的。这是一种普遍的香草，但人们说，'我现在会接受'，“Molavi笔记。
在其他地方，Vladimir Putin的Saber rattling不仅在俄国（-3.8分）和Ukraine(–3.6) but throughout Eastern Europe. “Putin is frozen in place because oil prices are so low, so I don’t think you’re going to see any more serious adventurism out of him,” says Stavridis.
And then there’s energy. Fracking and growing U.S. energy independence have already transformed the global energy market and depressed prices; the diplomatic agreement to contain Iran’s nuclear program threatens to knock prices even lower by unleashing fresh Iranian supply. “The石油市场is waiting to see if the Iranian deal will go through and put an end to sanctions on Iran,” says one New York–based bank risk analyst. “If it does, oil prices will stay below $70 for the foreseeable future.” Because of low energy prices, survey respondents mark down a host of oil producers, but only by a little. No countries seem to be getting marked up because of cheap energy, meanwhile. If anything, the new era of cheaper energy is engendering a surprising amount of be-careful-what-you-wish-for angst.
新兴市场continue to struggle, which explains the continued outflow of capital from EM bonds in recent months. Many of these countries are commodities exporters, and their problem is no longer just sluggish global growth and low prices, says François Faure, head of research for emerging economies at BNP Paribas. “The key issue now for all commodity-exporting countries is you have a decrease in revenues due to lower prices in U.S. dollars but also an increase in debt burdens because of the high dollar, so it is more difficult to repay,” he says. He expects 2016 growth forecasts to be revised downward, particularly forLatin America，因为高美元的双重鞭子。
“过去几个月，新兴市场叙述发生了变化，”莫拉韦斯说。最弱的链接是Latin Americaand Africa, so it’s no surprise their ratings have turned down a bit, he says, while in Asia “because of the consumption story, because of the demographics, because of the growth that’s still taking place, they’re the ones that are holding out the longest.”
Once all eyes would have been on the U.S., hoping it would expand fast enough to buy up lots of the world’s goods and boost everybody’s economy. But now the fate of many economies, and ratings, is in China’s hands. There’s a growing perception that as China goes, so goes the global economy and global creditworthiness. Not only is China now the second-largest economy, it has been the largest single contributor to global growth in recent years, overtaking the U.S. as a locomotive.
所以中国在正确的赛道上还是错误的轨道？BNP的Faure相信，货币松动和其他政策举措“将成功刺激经济。”中国澳大利亚银行经济学家John Sharma表示，中国的货币贬值“对他们来说有好处。”
Molavi说,中国正走向一个“中等着陆,but not a hard landing,” with its leaders aggressively pulling all the levers and pushing all the buttons to stop the market rout and support the economy. “The government is facing a real test,” he says. Its grade will be determined not by “how many corrupt officials they can catch but how well they can calm the world by showing that China may be in a down cycle — which can happen in any country — but it is taking responsible policy moves that don’t look panicky.” Recent policies, notably efforts to prop up stock prices, have in fact looked panicky, he contends. Chinese leaders, says Molavi, “are not doing a good job of instilling confidence in their economic management, and doing that is as important as a massive stimulus program.”
Confidence in China is critical for many nations going forward, says Molavi: “If you take a doomsday view of China, you’re going to take a doomsday view of the global economy as well.”