The Triple Threat Facing Sovereign Wealth Funds

从朱诺的门登霍尔冰川到北极圈上方的普拉德霍湾，成千上万的阿拉斯加人很快就会撕开一个白色的信封，里面装着他们每年从阿拉斯加税收部永久基金分红部门收到的分红支票，该部门从该州的528亿美元中拨款主权财富基金。

They may be happily surprised. Despite the 60 percent drop in crude prices since June 2014, each oil-fueled check should top $2,000, by our estimates. That’s up from the $1,884 each of Alaska’s approved recipients got last year and just may be the highest total since the fund began paying such dividends in 1982.

自2008年-09金融危机以来，石油附近其最低价格，薪水是纪律的证词 - 以及多元化的力量。驯服碳氢化合物价格对其投资组合的滚子效果阿拉斯加永久基金公司(APFC), like the managers of many sovereign wealth funds, spreads its money across myriad asset classes. Today the fund is invested in areas as varied as infrastructure,私人股本and plain old U.S. Treasury bonds, using strategies that range from so-called smart beta to arbitrage.

阿拉斯加人的年度薪水基于前五年产生的基金的平均收益。关键决定因素不是原油的价格而是利润。“实现盈利与投资组合中的活动联系在于，不是石油价格，”APFC代理执行董事及其首席财务官APFC·阿勒提Mertz说。

鉴于其保守指导方针，已将未来几代收益持续超过其余的一半以上的收入并将其送回公民，这一令人印象深刻的回报，在2015年6月至6月份的五年内获得约10％的年化。截至6月份的财政年度2015年30日，2014财年回报率为15.5％，该基金张贴了初步4.9％。

通过在线发布的APFC董事会会议的分钟，可以看到石油价格的主题几乎没有出现。阿拉斯加人没有对管理层的关注。默兹说：“我们没有从阿拉斯加公民的沟通，”据说。

Armageddon并非阿拉斯加永久基金或世界主权财富基金- 至少还没有。尽管如此，石油销售仍然通过艰苦的试验将基于碳氢化合物的资本汇总。许多人像阿拉斯加的基金一样，缺口通过等级，特别是历史更长，大投资组合和执行良好的多元化策略。

毫无疑问，如果今天的低油价持续了几年，情况会变得更糟。But there is little or no panic selling of illiquid assets and, with a couple of notable exceptions, like Russia’s pension fund, few blatant violations of the rules on disbursements of funds to governments, even as jurisdictions like Alaska and Norway are depleting their oil reserves.

The meltdown in oil prices isn’t the only challenge facing sovereign wealth funds. In a corner of the financial world known for gradual, almost glacierlike change, the state-owned investors are suddenly being forced to grapple with a host of what may prove to be transformational developments. These include a spell of wild currency swings, including a 13 percent drop in the euro vis-à-vis the dollar over the 12 months through late August. The Norwegian krone is down 25 percent and the Russian ruble 48 percent. “Sovereign wealth funds are increasingly focused on the impact that currency moves can have on their investment portfolios,” says Joseph Konzelmann, senior sovereign strategist at Goldman Sachs Asset Management in New York. “As long-term investors, sovereign funds have taken these moves in stride.” A June survey by Invesco found that 57 percent of sovereign funds now use foreign exchange hedges to either safeguard their portfolios or try to turn a profit.

上海和深圳证券交易所泡沫的崩溃促使政府招募了7467亿美元的中国投资公司中央汇金投资子公司，以购买汇款资金的股份，以升高的烟草价格。最少的骚动在CIC和其他国家投资者在中国的金钱，如新加坡的1939亿美元淡马锡控股。The sell-off also raises the question of whether the market upheaval will derail President Xi Jinping’s economic liberalization efforts and prospects for continued growth — long an article of faith among state-owned investors.

抛开市场波动，一个雪球趋势是治理，一夜之间受到媒体，非政府组织（非政府组织）和国家立法机构的审查。挪威的877.4亿美元全球政府养老基金（GPFG）是一个大目标，也许是因为它的透明度，也因为它屈从于议会（Storting）的奇思妙想，即使由保守派统治，议会也有社会倾向。挪威最近禁止了与煤炭相关的投资，一个非政府组织希望GPFG出售其可口可乐公司的股票。

Allegations of corruption, as well as conflicts at state-owned investors, are also in the klieg lights. In April the金融时报国际石油投资公司的详细房地产交易是董事总经理Khadem al-Qubaisi，他很快离开了663亿美元，基于Abu Dhabi的基金。韩国投资公司首席执行官首席执行官宏川·艾恩（Hongchul Ahn）被举行的议会反对党委员会被指控违反内部基金规则，因为他在洛杉矶道奇队棒球队购买了19％的股权，后来中产了。Ahn否认不法行为，并表示将计划放弃847亿KIC与任何批评无关。

八月，纽约梅隆公司银行同意支付1480万美元以解决美国证券交易委员会的民事指控国外腐败实践法案该公司聘请了一家主权财富基金高管的无资质亲属作为实习生，但该基金并未透露其身份。这家银行没有承认或否认有不当行为。银行发言人拒绝置评。

“有一些资金已经在治理前面采取了下巴，”弗莱彻财富和全球资本的弗莱彻·苏娜（Patrick Schena）帕特里克·桑纳（Patrick Schena）帕特里克·桑纳（Patrick Schena）表示，在波士顿以外的塔夫茨大学堡垒学院。“他们感受到了压力。媒体审查当然存在 - 国际媒体，也是当地的。对反对派的兴趣在政治上。“

不过，石油仍然是主权财富基金的大问题。尽管油气价格暴跌，全球各地的资产仍在堆积。按资产计算的25只最大的基金亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者的主权财富中心，在2015年的排名中监督5.64万亿美元，比去年5.06万亿美元。十大资金占绝大多数总数：2015年的每年4.72万亿美元，去年4.17万亿美元。

The assets of Norway’s GPFG drop to $877.4 billion in this year’s ranking from $893.2 billion in 2014, partly because of sharply lower inflows, but at the oil-rich Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, assets rise to $621.2 billion from $589 billion, according to Sovereign Wealth Center estimates. At the Kuwait Investment Authority, assets also have increased, totaling $592 billion, up from $386.1 billion last year. And at the Qatar Investment Authority, assets hit $334.1 billion in the 2015 ranking, up from $304.4 billion, based on estimates by the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

油价下跌的最终影响取决于其深度和持续时间。能源看跌者将崩溃视为一种范式转变。”我认为，从宏观角度、财政角度和主权财富基金角度来看，这是一个游戏规则的改变者，”瑞银（UBS）驻苏黎世全球主权市场战略主管马西米利亚诺•卡斯泰利（Massimiliano Castelli）表示快速增长的主权财富基金时代已经结束。”

在长期确定大多数碳氢化合物出口国家的弹性的关键号是所谓的财政突破点，这衡量了一个国家履行其预算要求所必需的每桶石油。当油价低于财政突破点的价格下降时，它可能不是世界末日，但是需要一些行动方案。一个国家可以寻求增加石油或其他物品的出口。它可以减少支出。国家可以运行赤字，减少其储备。或者它可以发出债务，以帮助资助继续支出。

The problem today is that with Brent oil at $45 to $50 a barrel, something needs to be done. “Most of the countries have a fiscal break-even point that is higher than the current price of oil,” says Castelli, who is co-author of主权财富基金的新经济学. 根据IIF的数据，巴林的财政收支平衡点是每桶130美元。沙特阿拉伯的盈亏平衡是103美元，阿曼102美元，俄罗斯86美元，阿联酋75美元，卡塔尔65美元，科威特54美元。这些数字很难接受。

重点是沙特阿拉伯。As the world’s largest oil exporter, it was largely responsible for driving down the price of oil last year in a gambit to maintain market share and, in perhaps the most expensive game of chicken ever, attempt to force U.S. shale oil producers to mothball production.

据主权财富中心估计，沙特阿拉伯货币机构（SAMA）由沙特阿拉伯货币机构（SAMA）代表，其投资组合截至2014年12月31日，其投资组合总计3150亿美元。Sama的州长Fahad Al-Mubarak于7月宣布，该机构在今年前五个月的储备中撤回了651亿美元。他说他谨慎使用这笔钱来帮助达到预期的赤字。Al-Mubarak还表示，该国在过去两个月内发出了40亿美元的政府债务。尽管如此，沙特·王萨尔曼·阿卜杜勒拉齐兹·安德拉兹·阿布拉兹不能太担心预算：在1月份假设王位之后，他订购了两个月的薪资奖金，向所有州雇员，军事人员，养老金领取者和学生支付。

Foolhardy? Not necessarily. Garbis Iradian, the IIF’s chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa, says that although the Saudi government boosted spending 14 percent annually over the past decade, he expects that increase to decline sharply, to just 5 percent or so. But that’s hardly a problem in the short term. “Given the kingdom’s ample financial resources, including SAMA, it’s not alarming,” Iradian says. “They can easily weather five years of low oil prices. I don’t see a problem over the next four, five or six years.” After that, following an extended period of, say, $45- to $50-a-barrel oil, the tale could take a different, uglier turn. “Then there’s trouble,” says Iradian. The big test would be if Saudi Arabia needed to roll back spending and subsidies. “Will they be forced to cut priority expenditures without increasing social unrest?” he asks. That’s a question as yet unanswered.

放心地，沙特阿拉伯之前经过这个循环并反弹。1998年，布伦特实际上是13美元的桶，那么与沙特阿拉伯的财政休息价格为20.40美元。Sama的外国资产仅为469亿美元，政府债务占GDP的百分比为102.2％。

布伦特原油价格开始上涨，而且很快就达到了每桶28.60美元，远远高于该国的盈亏平衡点，仅仅两年后的2000年。到2013年，布伦特原油价格为每桶108.80美元，沙特阿拉伯的盈亏平衡为92.80美元。SAMA的海外资产总额为7257亿美元政府债务由于GDP的百分比仅为2.2％。通过IIF估计，今年的SAMA有610.5亿美元的外国资产 - 很多让狼在海湾。

According to a recent IIF forecast of inflation-adjusted $57 Brent going forward, by 2020 SAMA would still have foreign assets of $306.9 billion, government debt as a percentage of GDP would be just 49.2 percent, and the desert kingdom would be running a fiscal deficit of 12 percent of GDP.

沙特阿拉伯is not alone in its willingness to raid the till. Shamar Movsumov, chief executive of the $35.8 billion State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan, told the金融时报3月份，他的基金将能够在没有太多困难的情况下吸引亚洲国家的预算超过数十亿美元，因为它的短期持有了很大的困难债务。“他们依靠债务发行和资产的缩减，”瑞银的Castelli说。

这种石油出口国正在攻击主权财富基金，以满足财政短缺不应该是令人担忧的原因，更加恐慌。“纽约自然资源治理研究所高级经济分析师安德鲁鲍尔有些人认为更大的君主财富世界中有一些人。”但是，他补充说，“尺寸的尺寸无意义。”

预算稳定，Bauer竞争，是许多此类资金的主要目标之一。另一种任务通常由代际财富转移和未来支出的专用金钱组成。“我们看到他们吸取了他们的资金，”他说。“这些资金是为了提供目的。这正是他们设计的。“

Castelli senses changes afoot at sovereign wealth funds that derive their assets from trade surpluses, especially CIC. As President Xi’s economic policy changes take hold,中国中国将向更正常的经济转型，消费者购买量增加，经常账户盈余减少。这意味着外汇储备减少。”卡斯泰利说：“随着自由化的继续，中国外汇储备的增长将放缓并逆转。”。

主权财富基金面临的事态发展背后的一个主题是，这些组织在处理这些日益增多的问题时，越来越成熟，越来越负责任。”在目前发布的年度报告中，战略经过深思熟虑，治理经过深思熟虑，”总部位于伦敦的景顺主权财富集团（Invesco sovereign wealth group）主席尼克•托尔查德（Nick Tolchard）表示主权财富基金引入了首席风险官。”

The move to transparency, though at times sketchy, is particularly important because it shows to a sometimes jaundiced world market the increased expertise of sovereign wealth funds as they face headwinds. “They are opening the kimono,” says Patrick Thomson, global head of sovereigns at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London. “The due diligence they conduct in an investment is just as rigorous as any institution.”

如果开放的一个目标主权财富基金，他们可以比遵循APFC的领导者更糟糕。除了在线发布月度和季度报告外，它还发布了在返回封面上打印基金年度报告的成本：2014年每副本7.87美元。•