Latin American Currencies Hit Downward Spiral

这并不是拉丁美洲货币的横幅年份。巴西真正的抵制美国美元兑美国抵制了29％，墨西哥比索已经下滑了12％，哥伦比亚比索23％，智利比索12％。

这是逆转的一部分multiyear trend. “Four legs were supporting Latin American and other emerging-markets currencies,” says Win Thin, global head of emerging-markets strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. They were strong global economic growth,rising commodity prices, low U.S. interest rates and a weak dollar. “It worked for ten years. But now, all four legs have been kicked out,” he says. Policy mistakes in some Latin American countries — particularly Brazil — have exacerbated the problem, say Thin and other analysts. They don’t expect the struggles of Latin American currencies to end any time soon.

Thedrop in commodity prices拉丁美洲经济学家马里奥卡特罗（Nomura Securities）的拉丁美洲货币疲软的“拉丁美洲货币疲软的”主要原因“推动了16年的低点。

Oil, which has dropped to a six-year low, accounts for about 55 percent of Colombia’s exports and a substantial portion of the Mexican government’s revenue. Falling oil prices also hurt the Mexican currency because the $16 billion of foreign investment in Mexico’s oil industry that was expected prior to the oil price crash will now probably shrink to $8 billion, saysClaudio Irigoyen, head of Latin American fixed-income and foreign exchange strategy for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

铜，也陷入六年低，占智利出口的55％。巴西是铁矿石，石油和大豆的主要出口国。

商品在大量供应和缓慢的需求中，尤其是来自中国的迟缓，虽然其经济迅速减速，但耗资大约一半的工业商品。而政府报告7％的增长，一些外部经济学家和投资者估计true figure at 3 to 5 percent. Even Mexico, which doesn’t export much to China, has suffered from the Asian titan’s woes, Irigoyen says. Mexico competes with China for exports to the U.S. China devalued the yuan last month, pushing it down 3 percent versus the dollar. That makes Chinese products cheaper in the U.S. compared with Mexican ones.

The Mexican peso also suffers from investors’ general negative sentiment toward emerging markets, and the currency’s liquidity makes it something of a proxy for emerging markets as a whole. “To hedge a global shock on Latin America, sell Mexico,” Irigoyen says. He and others say Mexican fundamentals actually aren’t that bad. The economy will probably grow 2.2 percent in 2015 and accelerate to 2.8 percent next year, Irigoyen says. Inflation is just 2.8 percent, below the central bank’s target of 3 percent. “There will probably be more pressure on the peso in the short run, but over time it should do better than the others,” he says.

Brazil, though, is a basket case. “It stands out as an example of what happens when you follow the wrong policies,” Thin says. “A few years ago, Brazil had everything going for it.” The prosperity then masked excessive spending and political corruption, however. Now the government faces widespread social unrest. “The government has a lack of credibility to implement fiscal and structural reform, so I don’t see how the economy is going to grow,” Irigoyen says. He forecasts an economic contraction of at least 2.3 percent this year and at least 0.4 percent next year. “The currency will continue to fall, regardless of commodities.”

在哥伦比亚说，Irigoyen说，政府可能会花费1％的国内生产总值，为马克思主义游击队组织与哥伦比亚（Farc，西班牙语）的革命武装部队进行金融协议。Irigoyen说，即结合当前账户赤字，意味着货币必须越来越慢。与此同时，在智利，政府正在追求审慎的政策，但商品昏昏欲睡胜过其他因素，瘦身说。

As for the other three support legs that Thin says have been erased (besides rising commodity prices) for Latin American currencies, global economic growth has shrunk since the 2008–’09 financial crisis, the Fed is likely to begin hiking the policy rate before year-end, and the dollar index has climbed 6.7 percent in 2015.

Overall, the outlook is bleak for Latin American currencies. “This adjustment is here to stay,” says Nomura’s Castro. “I don’t see room for a meaningful correction.” If commodity prices continue to fall, the currencies will depreciate further. To be sure, if commodities stabilize or rebound, the Mexican and Chilean pesos can outperform their brethren, reflecting the relative strength of the two nations’ economic fundamentals compared with other countries in the region, he says.

In any case, the days of making easy money going long Latin American currencies are over.

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