Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tops 2015 All-America Research Team

美国股权研究领先供应商之间的竞争刚刚变得更加紧张，五家公司拥挤进入2015年全美研究团队的前三名，亚博赞助欧冠该国最佳卖方分析师的年度排名。美国银行Merrill Lynch取代了名册上的J.P.摩根。五年结束后者的胜利连胜。他们的团队总数分别为38和36个。然而，当四个额定值被分配给每个首位位置时，三个到每个第二位置位置，依此类推，J.P.摩根在加权结果中继续到最佳的Bofa Merrill，这次得分为99到77。

Related Content The 2015 All-America Research Team Hall of Fame October 5, 2015 The 2015 All-America Sales Team October 8, 2015 The 2015 全美研究团队崛起的明星 October 13, 2015 美国顶级公司访问​​提供商 October 14, 2015

Three firms are locked in a tie for third place overall, with 25 spots each: Barclays (rising one rung from last year), Evercore ISI (jumping from fifth place) and Morgan Stanley (rank unchanged). Click on the领导者右侧导航表中的链接，以查看31个排名的公司的完整列表，或Weighting the Results在应用上述公式时，了解这些研究提供者的票价。

evercore Isi - 去年创建的装备mergerEvercore Partners &和国际战略Investment Group — records the highest finish by a non-bulge-bracket firm since 1995, when Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp. captured second place. It is also the only one of the five whose team total is higher this year than in 2014, but a word of explanation is in order. We made a number of changes to this year’s ballot — adding Shipping, deleting Tobacco and merging sectors in the Consumer; Health Care; and Technology, Media & Telecommunications categories (details at方法) — reducing the sector total by four, to 60.

今年的团队有285分析师，其中包括30人appearing for the first time. To view the individuals and squads in first place in each sector,click hereor select the appropriate link in the navigation table for more information. TheOverviewhighlights some of the more interesting and unusual results of this year’s survey.

2015年全美研究团队反映了超过1000家公司的创纪录的3,800人的意见，该公司统称在美国股票估计为11.3万亿美元。

It’s been a challenging year for many financial professionals, in large part owing to confusing and often contradictory data on the health of the U.S. economy. Real gross domestic product in the first quarter, for instance, was initially reported to have contracted by 0.2 percent, only to be revised later to a 0.6 percent expansion. Early reports of second-quarter GDP of 2.3 percent fell short of consensus expectations of 2.6 percent; the official figure was revised in August all the way up to 3.7 percent.

随着世界市场从中国惊喜货币贬值的速度释放，这一良好消息无法进入更合适的新闻 - 这一举措是广泛看出的，以试图对来自世界第二大经济经济的出口的需求。投资者在多年来没有看到的步伐上撤退，标准普尔500指数落入纠正领土，道琼斯工业平均伐木其119年历史上最糟糕的三天下降 - 超过1,477点。

This global market turbulence, coupled with a domestic inflation rate of just 0.3 percent, was among the key reasons why the U.S. Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates in September, as many market observers had expected. But if the delay was meant to calm investors, it seems to have had the opposite effect, with many wondering if the central bank knows something that they don’t. By the end of last month, the S&P benchmark had fallen more than 7 percent, to 1,920, in the trailing three months — its worst quarterly performance since 2011. Some analysts have declared that a bear market for U.S. stocks had begun, but not everyone agrees.

“In trying to communicate a dovish policy message, Fed chief [Janet] Yellen inadvertently conveyed a downbeat view of the global growth outlook, which did not help risk appetite,” affirms Nicholas Rosato, head of North American equity research at J.P. Morgan. “We don’t think that we are in a bear market, but given that the expansion is now in the later stages, high equity returns likely will be harder to come by.”

And investor anxiety will probably keep trading range-bound in the near term, believes Brett Hodess, BofA Merrill’s director of equity research for the Americas. “Volatility increased in August ahead of the Fed inaction, as global growth and quantitative easing failure fears grew,” he observes. “With the issue now well acknowledged by the Fed’s decision and its explanations, we believe the market could have a short-term bear move but is most likely entering a trading range, with the low end retesting the mid- to lower 1,800s on the S&P 500 and potentially reaching an upside of 2,100.”

The latter figure is Barclays’s forecast for the index at year end, according to Robert Rouse, director of U.S. equity research. “We think the recent risk-off trade wasn’t about a sudden shift in sentiment as much as it was mounting concerns around global growth. China’s deceleration will remain a headwind for an extended period, while developed-market economies remain on track,” he says. “With slowing growth central to our thesis and current valuations not yet compelling, we expect U.S. equities to settle into a period of lower returns and have cut our 2015 S&P earnings forecast to reflect zero year-over-year growth.”

宏基石的弗朗索瓦•Trahan庆祝s his ninth appearance at No. 1 in Portfolio Strategy, dismisses talk of bear-market beginnings. “The best-performing sector in the past month is technology, followed by consumer discretionary and energy. These are all cyclical sectors, and leadership there is just not what you see in a bear market,” he explains. “The flip side of this is the poor relative performance in utilities, telecoms and health care — classic defensives — which usually lead equities going into a bear market. So the internals here are not consistent with a bear market.”

点击下面的信息图表突出了2015年全美研究团队调查结果的结果。

相反，他补充说，这些迹象表明美国经济正在上市，尽管最近的市场表现。“本质上，这是一项纠正 - 就像我看到的那样，这是一个很好的机会，”Trahan说。“我认为在几个月里，投资者会说，'哦是的，行业告诉你世界即将改善。”

His colleagueNancy Lazar那who rises one rung to lead the Economics lineup for the first time, also believes the economy is poised to soar. “The biggest tailwind for U.S. domestic economic activity is the lagged impact of the sharp decline in energy prices, helping to boost real consumer purchasing power,” she says. “But less obvious is the broadening impact of the U.S. manufacturing renaissance, which is starting to help boost employment and is also a boost to domestic capital expenditures. So, if energy-related capex can finally stabilize in 2016 — and we think it will — then overall domestic capex could be stronger than expected.”

Lazar expects GDP growth of 3.5 percent in the third and fourth quarters, resulting in roughly 2.8 percent for the year, followed by a 3 percent expansion in 2016. Many research directors are similarly upbeat and are urging clients to position their portfolios accordingly.

“我们特别看涨来自加强美国中产阶级消费者的行业，”Bofa Merrill的Hodess宣布“。“财政义务 - 即债务 - 消费者的债务是25年的低点，同时稳定家庭形成随着改善的失业水平而增加。这款BOITE适用于杠杆票支出的较大票支出，以及消费者信贷将扩展到的其他地区。当这些趋势踢进时，它们是长期的，多年循环。“

J.P. Morgan的Rosato同意。他说，“自由裁量权应受益于提高劳动力市场趋势，高消费者情绪，可支配收入增长和较低的天然气价格。“特别是，我们寻求改善住房的康复，并注意到该部门在今年第四季度季节性强劲。强劲的美元也有利于进口国外的公司，并在美国销售产品。

Don’t give up on the defensives just yet, Rouse counters. “From a bottom-up perspective the areas where our teams have the most conviction are those with idiosyncratic drivers,” the Barclays research director reports. “These include traditional growth sectors — such as biotechnology, information-technology services and consumer finance — as well as more defensive sectors, including regulated utilities and managed care.”

Sectors to avoid, he adds, include autos, machinery, oil and gas exploration and production, and oil services.

“我们在接下来的四到五个季度的稳定率2.5％的速度下，我们看到了美国。“从美元较强和更柔软的全球需求出口将有一些压力;但是，个人消费增长和商业投资应保持相当强劲。“

据David Adelman称，摩根士丹利也建设于消费者自由裁量权和财务状况All-America Research Team Hall of Fame去年秋天晋升为美洲股权研究。“我们的观点是，鉴于缺乏催化剂在未来宿舍造成有意义的经济或盈利经济衰退，这可能是甚至2020年的延长甚至可能。”“我们的感觉是，企业盈利将担心全球增长崩溃的担忧。虽然绝对的收益增长可能只处于低单位数字，但美国也有超过2％的净回购，期望现在相当低。“

Investors shouldn’t equate diminished expectations with market doom. “Industrials, financials and technology are all sectors that outperform when growth improves,” notes Trahan, of Cornerstone Macro. “The opposite is the defensives, where investors have been hiding during the slowdown. These sectors now have a premium in their price, so they are vulnerable to better growth. They offer stability, which is great when growth slows but a disaster when it improves. It’s time to think offense.”