Daily Agenda: Yellen Indicates a Rate Hike Is Coming

In a highly publicized speech at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst Thursday evening,美国联邦储备Chair Janet Yellen明确地重申了她在年底前搬迁的立场，在缩短疾病之前，仍然是由于疾病的轻微疾病。在她出发之前，中央银行椅也向听众提供保证，虽然美联储政策制定者实际上警惕，但她和她的同事们不会预计从新兴市场到国内经济的传播。也许最重要的是，随着工作市场恢复仍然脆弱，耶伦阐述了需要逐步收紧的方法。欧洲和开发亚洲的股票上升的股票索引更具确定性的信息。

Xi to unveil carbon-emissions plan.中国总统习近平is expected to use today’s meeting with President Barack Obama in Washington D.C. to unveil a new series of control measures for greenhouse gas emissions. The plan is expected to be based on cap-and-trade proposals designed and promoted by U.S. academics and supported by the White House.

Core CPI contracts in Japan.On Friday data released by Japan’s Statistics Bureau indicated that core consumer-price-index levels, which exclude fuel and food components, contracted on a month-over-month basis in August. Though in line with forecasts, this is the first such contraction since April 2013 and underscores challenges facing the government and Bank of Japan just days after calls for fresh reforms by Prime Minster Shinzo Abe.

投票以避免d shutdown in Washington.A procedural vote has been scheduled for Monday in the U.S. Senate that will extend funding for federal operations past the looming September 30 deadline. The legislation under consideration is not expected to include provisions to cut funding for social programs, notably Planned Parenthood, opposed by some Congressional Republicans. Some members had demanded that vote after House Speaker John Boehner proposed presenting the controversial provisions in a separate bill.

Albertsons files for IPO.With over 2,000 locations throughout the U.S., supermarket chain Albertsons this week filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission to go public, with an initial targeted capital raise of over $1.8 billion. Albertsons’ owner, New York-based private equity giant Cerberus Capital Management, acquired rival chain, Safeway, in a $9 billion transaction last year, and merged the two into the second-largest U.S. grocer.

巴西捍卫货币。The巴西真的reached an intraday low of 4.24 per U.S. dollar on Thursday before central bank Governor Alexandre Tombini made a surprise announcement that bank reserves would be used to defend the currency. Despite a rebound, the real remains down over 35 percent versus the dollar year-to-date, as official forecasts call for the Brazilian economy to contract by nearly 3 percent in 2015.

Portfolio Perspective: China Systemic Risk—the Sequels

During the summer of 2014, a sharp contraction in bank lending and concurrent rise in non-performing loans triggered fears about the Chinese economy. One estimate of the systemic risk from the financial sector exceeded $575 billion, a level greater than that of more mature markets in the U.S., Japan and Europe (which faced its own crisis). China fears largely subsided by the end of 2014, in part due to three bulwarks of the Chinese economy: sizeable foreign exchange reserves, solid economic growth, and the government’s willingness to pull any policy lever to maintain stability.

2015年夏天目睹了一个更加灼热的全身风险爆发，主要是中国股权价格下降30％。相对于2014年，全身风险增长了15％。警告钟声开始为机构投资者响起，其中许多人似乎准备击中他们的恐慌按亚博赞助欧冠钮。

这似乎早下。在短期内，去年中国提供的三个舷墙仍然是声音。China may have spent billions of U.S. dollars in just the past two months, but at $4.1 trillion the country sits on a pile of reserves bigger than in 2014. Chinese growth may have slowed, but economists forecast it will contribute more to 2015 global GDP growth than the U.S., Japan and Germany combined. The Chinese government’s frenzied response to the stock market crash appeared suboptimal, but it successfully dampened short-term volatility.

Longer term, the challenges facing the Chinese economy seem more foreboding. Foreign reserves are exhaustible. Slower economic growth may not satisfy a country accustomed to faster quality-of-life improvements. Policies imposed to manage the crisis may fertilize moral hazard in the financial sector and elsewhere. Even if hitting the panic button proves premature, the financial crisis history suggests that institutional investors should prepare for multiple sequels to this summer’s turbulent story.

Jeffrey N. Saret是在纽约的两个Sigma投资的主题研究负责人。