在对美国商业的激烈竞争真正的estate, one closely watched measure of property values — the capitalization rate — has plunged to record lows. The cap rate, as it’s known, is a property’s annual income divided by its purchase price. The hotter the market, the lower the cap rate, and the valuation metric is at rock-bottom levels.
在正常时期，这种发展将作为警告商业房地产已经过热了。但零利率接近零，许多投资者和分析师表示，他们对历史低压率的难以置信。
The average cap rate for all U.S. property types was 5.25 percent as of September 1, according to Green Street Advisors of Newport Beach, California. The previous all-time low was 5.65 percent in 2007. For some trophy properties in desirable markets, cap rates have fallen to as low as 3 percent, says Andrew McCulloch, Green Street’s managing director of real estate analytics. “There’s just a tremendous amount of capital looking for a home in real estate,” McCulloch notes.
对于投资者来说，丰富的估值构成了挑战。“The feeling is that things are pricey, and there aren’t a lot of deals out there,” says Alex Foster, co-founder and managing principal of New York–based Atlas Real Estate Partners, which owns a $550 million portfolio of multifamily and retail properties. “I’m hearing that a lot.”
As prices have soared and cap rates have plunged, Foster has found bargains on the fringes of hot markets, such as a 22-unit apartment complex in a less than prime location in Washington and a 216-unit building in Suitland, Maryland.
在佛罗里达州，阿特拉斯决定迈阿密价格过于富裕，所以该公司遍布国家的州，到布拉德顿，那不勒斯和萨拉索塔。“我们已经决定去次级和三级子程，”福斯特说。
这种地理位置是寻求讨价还租的投资者的常见策略，Jeanette Rice表示，达拉斯·米德斯·科尔集团公司的商业房地产经纪人CBRE集团的达拉斯投资研究负责人。“大策略是远离网关市场，”米饭说。“投资者说，”旧金山如此昂贵，所以让我们来看看奥克兰。“
但是，深层投资者并没有猛击国家最炙手可热的城市。TIAA-CREF是一个基于纽约的金融服务组织，管理资产为8.69亿美元，正在播放素材市场的特性。9月份，投资者在旧金山的市场区南部的旧金山的445,000平方英尺的假期租赁服务Airbnb中获得了50.1％的股权。8月TIAA-CREF在马萨诸塞州剑桥的Biotechnology Biogen的305,000平方英尺的305,000平方英尺的家中买了70％的份额。
“我们看到大量的价格非常低，”该公司全球房地产战略和纽波特海滩研究部门的联合主任Martha Peyton说。“但我们专注的是对十年财政部的CAP率。当您这样做时，CAP速率差价并不符合始终为低电平。事实上，他们高于他们的长期平均值。“
作者：Peyton的计算（她跟踪了与绿色街道所使用的CAP率指数），CAP率和十年国债之间的差距在过去的四分之一世纪的平均基本点是306个基点。截至9月中旬，传播是338个基点。“它从来没有像那个帽子率低一样简单，”Peyton说。
因为投资者将CAP汇率视为更广泛的图片的一部分，因此Green Street的McCulloch表示他不会因低利率而令人震惊。他们反映了近乎零利率和改善经济的组合。“如果你自己看了上限，你会认为房地产在泡沫中，”麦卡克说。“但我们不同意这一结论。”
CBRE组’s Rice finds comfort when she looks across the Atlantic Ocean. Office cap rates in London, Paris and Zurich have fallen below 4 percent, meaning properties in those centers are valued more richly than their counterparts in major U.S. cities. That’s part of the reason that 15 percent of the money flowing into commercial real estate deals in the U.S. now comes from overseas, Rice says.
虽然商业房地产市场中的泡沫可能不会令人恐惧，但很多投标人正在争夺资产。“这是非常有竞争力的，”康涅狄格州韦斯特波特商业房地产咨询公司夏季街道顾问创始人兼董事总经理Jack Mullen说。“我们面临的最大挑战正在努力寻找良好的交易。”
Peyton takes a different view of a commercial房地产市场以积极的价格为特征。“这不是你找不到好的交易，”她说。“这是有很多竞争的良好交易。这意味着你必须努力工作才能承担交易并以一种将赢得它的方式出价。“
TIAA-CREF.’s strategy is not to move to less desirable markets. “Yes, you will get a little higher yield there,” Peyton says. “But when the market transitions, you’re going to have more risk.”
相反，TIAA-CREF正在申请更多审查来租用主要城市物业的卷和风险概况，这是一种佩顿称之为“防守投资”的方法。记录低压率可能无法预防泡沫，但它们是谨慎的。