美联储的异议意味着货币政策

More than at any time in the past few years, dissension has broken out among Federal Reserve policymakers. Given the current stage of theeconomic cycle，不和谐并不令人惊讶。

The disagreement is unlikely to affect the Fed’s monetary policy, as chair Janet Yellen enjoys enough support from Federal Open Market Committee members — particularly from the inner core of the Board of Governors — to have her way, analysts say. And the chair seems eager to get off the zero bound, judging by her congressional testimony on Wednesday. A December rate hike is a “live possibility,” she told the House Committee on Financial Services, if economic data remain strong. Stocks and bonds fell in reaction as the market priced in a better-than-even chance of a December hike, while the dollar rose.

“It does feel like disagreement is more intense now than it typically is, and for good reason,” says David Stockton, an ex–Fed economist who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s difficult to determine when to pursue the first tightening. How much confidence can you have that inflation will return to target?”

The Fed’s federal funds rate target has stood at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. The Fed announced an inflation target of 2 percent in 2012. But its favored inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, has stayed below that level for most of the time since then; it climbed just 0.2 percent in the 12 months through September.

Discord在几个方向上运行。在Hawkish方面，里士满联合国总统杰弗里·莱克在过去的两次FOMC会议上失败了，争论中央银行应在9月和10月提高利率。1月份，莱克斯在FOMC上丢失了他的投票状况，但詹姆斯·美联社总裁詹姆斯··乔治·埃德·埃菲尔（克利夫兰克利夫兰议员）总裁，埃尔·乔治，克利夫兰总统，旋转。这三者都是如果美联储继续避免速度，那么他们可能对他们不同意。

On the dovish side, board members Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo said last month that inflation wasn’t yet strong enough to justify rate hikes, seeming to contradicting Yellen’s September statement that a majority on the FOMC expected to begin raising rates this year. Yet Brainard appeared to modify her stance in an appearance at a conference at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt on Wednesday, calling the domestic outlook for the U.S. economy “encouraging” but voicing concerns about the negative impact of the dollar’s strength.

Earlier, a split opened in August between美联储副主席Stanley Fischer总裁和公开市场委员会副主席威廉·达德利the New York Fed. First, Dudley said that volatility in financial markets and trouble in the global economy made “the decision to begin the normalization process at the September [FOMC] meeting seem less compelling to me than it did several weeks ago.” Later the same week, however, Fischer said there was “good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further.”

在所有的分歧中，菲舍尔和达德利之间的一个可能是最有害的。据前美联储官员介绍，这是这两个和耶伦的三驾马士，真正建立了美联储政策。“这是真正显着的，即两名副主席在公共场所在公共场所在一股FOMC会议上几周不同意，”前美联储经济学家Andrew Levin说，该公司现在是新罕布什尔州汉诺威达特茅斯学院教授。“随着耶伦椅在她的新闻发布会上指出，这是一个不幸的事态。”

但是，菲舍尔和达德利似乎没有太远。“They aren’t exactly on the same page, but they are close enough that they can be lumped [with Yellen] into a move to raise rates in December, unless the economic data between now and then prove to be weak,” says Stephen Oliner, a former Fed economist who is now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

事实上，达德利在星期三建议，他同意耶伦同意12月份的率徒步旅行，但是，让我们看看数据显示什么。“在他自己的讲话中，费舍尔没有直接评论率徒步旅行的时间，但是说通货膨胀是来自美联储的2％的目标“并不是那么远”。

对于极端的老鹰队和鸽子，他们的观点不会影响政策，但前美联储官员同意。“老鹰队没有很多影响，尤其是最令人遗憾的是，”奥林尔说。“缺陷是一个连续的异议者;所以[前费城美联储总裁]查尔斯普林。乔治位于同一个营地。他们大声，但在移动美联储政策方面，他们是一个大的肥胖零。“除了纽约美联盟总统以外，区域美联储酋长很少有很大影响。

Oliner表示，无论如何，猜测和塔鲁洛在12月的决定中促进了速度，这不太可能。“在FOMC中有很多景观，可以融入声明中，”他说。与区域美联储总统不同，董事会成员不能轻易实现异议。“他们基本上是耶伦的员工，”奥林尔说。“他们可能会在声明中抛出他们的骨头，但他们会在会议中表达他们的异议，”而不是通过他们的投票。

大多数分析师认为，如果工资报告保持强劲，通货膨胀率展示任何攀登迹象，那么美联储可能会在12月提升利率。斯托克顿说：“斯托克顿说：”在真正和分析中，“仍然存在的分歧。“董事会成员不寻常，这么有力地说话，但它表明他们希望他们的案件被聆听。”

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