For a fourth year running,中国国际金融公司。带领全国研究团队，亚博赞助欧冠的独家年度排名全国领先的卖方股票分析师。该公司共获得了18个团队职位，比去年减少了7个，但比排名第二的瑞士信贷（creditsuisse）多了3个。瑞士信贷在增加了4个职位后，排名上升了一级。
Bank of America Merrill Lynch, whose total falls by one, slips from the No. 2 spot to share the third tier with Morgan Stanley, which bolts from fifth place after adding five positions, for a total of 13. The latter’s ascent bumps last year’s No. 4 firm, UBS, down a notch even though its total increases by two, to 12. Click on the领导人link in the navigation table at right for details on the full list of 15 ranked firms.
今年的团队有101名分析师，其中包括25人第一次出现. 要在每个部门首先查看个人，单击此处或在导航表中选择适当的链接以获取更多信息。这个Overviewhighlights some of the more significant accomplishments of this year’s researchers.
“2015全中国研究团队”是基于来自400多家机构的近790名投资专业人士的回应，这些机构总共管理着约5950亿美元的中国股票。
中国从出口导向型经济向消费导向型经济的痛苦转型，已使其成为全球投资者减持情绪最严重的市场之一。这一点在夏季股市暴跌期间尤为明显——6月中旬至8月下旬，上海证交所综合指数暴跌逾40%——仅在中国央行斥资约1.5万亿元人民币（合2350亿美元）提振股价后才告一段落，根据高盛集团9月初的一份报告。
不过，中金公司（CICC）驻北京研究主管兼首席经济学家洪亮认为，放弃中国市场的全球基金经理这样做，有可能在中国市场失利长期增长机会. “I would advise investors to在中国保持一定的风险敞口“在那些要么看到结构性改革机遇，要么看到更高趋势增长的行业，”她说。梁补充说，这些类别包括消费、金融服务、医疗保健、互联网和制造业。梁负责管理一个涵盖46个行业840家公司的64位分析师团队。
Credit Suisse remains similarly optimistic about China’s long-term prospects and has expanded its coverage universe, according to Vincent Chan, Hong Kong–based head of China research. His analysts now follow 420 Chinese companies — including 180 A-share entities — up from about 300 a year ago. “We basically covered all sectors,” says Chan, who secures a runner-up spot in Portfolio Strategy for a fourth year running. “Most of the increases in company coverage are in sectors like consumer — both staples and discretionary — capital goods, health care and technology hardware.”
BofA Merrill has also raised the number of stocks its researchers follow, to more than 300 across 15 sectors in the A-share and H-share markets, reports Stephen Haggerty, head of Asia-Pacific research. “Our China equity market strategist, David Cui, expects the market to stay choppy,” he says. Cui, who spent the past four years at No. 1 in Portfolio Strategy but tumbles to third this year, “believes that lower growth and high and rising leverage are likely to have a negative impact on China’s financial system,” adds Haggerty, who is based in Hong Kong. “In this environment David is overweight on defense, nuclear, utilities, services — including logistics and tourism — and noncommodity nonfinancial large-cap state-owned enterprises,” or SOEs.
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）亚洲和新兴市场股票策略主管乔纳森•加纳（Jonathan Garner）表示，投资者应将重点放在股市上中国经济的亮点. “中国名义国内生产总值（gdp）增速确实已经放缓了一段时间，尽管近期我们预计到2016年年中会有小幅回升，”这位香港研究员表示。“四年多来，我们一直建议客户关注我们所称的信息技术、医疗保健和消费等‘新经济’领域，并减持材料、能源和工业等‘旧经济’领域。从结构上看，中国的经济增长、股本回报率趋势和杠杆率问题都有利于新经济，而不是旧经济。”
In the near term the slowdown and its impact on the rest of the global markets have just begun, insists CICC’s Liang, who debuts in first place in Economics. “Both shrinking U.S. dollar liquidity and slowing China domestic demand have put pressure on原材料价格从2013年开始，”她说。“我们认为，在供需平衡可能恢复之前，中国重工业部门的产能整合还有一两年的时间。中国基础材料行业可能会经历更多的通货紧缩，2016年产能也会有所下降。不过，明年生产者价格通货紧缩的幅度应该要温和得多。”
从海外上市的中国股票的估值来看，梁光烈认为，对中国这个世界第二大经济体增长势头的悲观情绪可能已经被消化了。“从全球来看，如果美国和中国明年继续出口通货紧缩，表现最差的肯定不是中国，中国的预期已经很低，政策空间仍然很大。”
CICC’s Hanfeng Wang, who jumps from third place to first in Portfolio Strategy, maintains that the issues facing the mainland economy are structural rather than cyclical. “The investment-related sectors — basic materials, energy, machinery and so on — are still suffering from the overall slower growth. I do not think the timing to build positions in these sectors is coming yet. But those names that gradually are becoming interesting are industry leaders and cheaply valued, and may play an important role in consolidating their industries — especially given the fact that China is trying to push forward with SOE reforms.”
此外，王建宙宣称，仍有一些行业前景看好。其中最主要的是医疗保健，他认为医疗保健应该继续保持长期的上升趋势。这家总部位于北京的策略师一直敦促投资者增持这一类别，并重点介绍了连云港的江苏恒瑞医药有限公司（suangjian Hengrui Medicine Co.），该公司是抗肿瘤药物的领先创新者，这种药物通过影响细胞分裂过程来对抗癌症的扩散。截至11月中旬，该股今年以来暴涨75.3%。
小王的同事Junhua毛the only analyst to top two sectors this year: Banks, for a third year in a row, and Insurance, for the first time. The CICC researcher, who works out of Beijing, began recommending shares of Hong Kong–headquartered multiline insurer China Taiping Insurance Holdings Co. in July 2014. The stock had trailed the sector in 2012 and 2013 when the company focused on volume and relied on bancassurance channels with a focus on low-margin businesses, Mao told investors, but it had since made a successful restructuring and started emphasizing agent development. “We thought the group became a hero from zero and thus put it as our most preferred name in China insurance space,” Mao says.
Good call. By mid-November 2015 the stock had soared 62 percent, from HK$15.62 to HK$25.30.
Preferred names in the banking sector include Beijing-based Bank of China, Shanghai’s Bank of Communications Co. and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank Co. The analyst has been especially bullish on the latter firm, citing its strong fundamentals and dubbing it a beneficiary of the central government’s targeted easing for rural China. Recommended in late October 2014 at HK$3.58, the shares rocketed to HK$6.66 in late April before being dragged down by market turbulence. By mid-November they had slid to HK$4.73, for a gain of 32.1 percent.
These institutions notwithstanding, Mao sees clouds on the horizon of China’s banking sector as a whole. “While signs of macro stabilization are still unclear, we believe the reduction of excess capacity for the real economy, and potential pro-active systematic nonperforming loan disposal, will become the main catalysts for banks in the second half of 2016,” he says. Investors should look at small- and midcapitalization lenders, Mao adds, because “they are more flexible in adjusting their asset and liability composition.”
研究主管们一致认为，消费支出将是衡量中国未来增长的一个关键指标。陈洛（音译）在消费类/非必需类股中排名第一，在消费类/非必需类股排行榜上也名列第三。他表示，基金经理在选择股票时应该谨慎，因为非必需商品和服务的零售商近期将继续面临挑战，尤其是在美国经济持续放缓之际。
Certain companies stand a better chance of weathering the headwinds, the BofA Merrill analyst contends, and they include athletic footwear and apparel maker Anta Sports Products. The Jinjiang-based company has a strong execution track record, Chen says, adding that he sees the beginning of a cyclical upturn in China sportswear as more consumers take up sports in their leisure time. Despite the recent market sell-off, Anta shares were up 67.7 percent year to date through mid-November.
这位在新加坡工作的分析师还倾向于广东家电制造商格力电器和美的集团，认为它们将从2016年的行业整合中受益。尽管到11月中旬，格力的股价变化不大，但美的股价上涨了5.6%。
BofA Merrill’s Yuanyuan (Tina) Long, who debuts atop the Consumer/Nondiscretionary roster, has been urging clients to buy Kweichow Moutai Co., one of China’s leading liquor producers. In mid-November the Guizhou-based distiller’s stock was changing hands at 215.11 yuan a share, up 59.2 percent in the trailing 12 months.
“我们喜欢股票，因为公司的品牌资产和市场占有率都很强，”除其他因素外，他说，他是驻香港的。此外，贵州茅台酒可能会从未来的国有企业改革中受益，特别是如果政府官员决定向公众投资者出售更多股份的话。
不过，她对业内其他公司持谨慎态度。Long认为：“由于中国经济放缓，当前的通货紧缩环境将对中国消费者非歧视性行业产生负面影响，从而导致需求下降。”。“大多数上市公司几乎没有定价权从原材料成本下降中获利。相比之下，价格竞争非常激烈，这既影响了收入增长，也影响了利润。”
梁伟雄（Eddie）今年是他在互联网领域排名第一的第四个年头，他对自己所在行业的看法好坏参半，“因为该行业的商业模式从非周期性的游戏和订阅，到非周期性的广告和商业。然而，无论经济周期如何，我们仍然预计用户活动会增加，因此我们预计收入增长将继续超过整体经济增长。”
美银美林（BofA Merrill）分析师的选股对象包括两家手机游戏及相关服务提供商：总部位于北京的网易（NetEase）和深圳的腾讯控股（Tencent Holdings），后者的美国存托股票在纳斯达克（Nasdaq）股票市场交易，原因是“由于投资者对宏观经济的担忧，其强劲的现金流和对周期性业务的敞口有限，这名驻香港的研究人员指出。
Shares of NetEase and Tencent climbed 50.9 percent and 35.6 percent, respectively, year to date through mid-November.
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的杨宇轩（Jack（Yuhin）Yeung）表示，对于汽车制造商来说，情况就不同了。杨宇轩在汽车和汽车零部件领域首次从亚军跃升至第一名。这位驻香港的分析师认为，需求下降与其说与宏观经济因素有关，不如说与买家想要的产品产量不足有关。
“尽管基础和宏观不确定性高,我们不是iced the growth slowdown in China was also caused by a supply-demand mismatch — for example, too many sedan models and not enough SUVs,” says Yeung. “The normalizing growth will lead to divergent performance among vendors in the food chain. We expect auto and auto parts makers that have competitive product portfolios — especially SUV and good price-and-performance models, and room for further cost-down via increasing localization — to outperform.” Hebei-based Great Wall Motor Co., the nation’s largest sport utility vehicle maker, is among the companies he recommends.
另一位摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的分析师俞敏洪（Andy）Meng首次成为行业冠军，他在能源行业排名从第二上升。他今年最喜欢的名字是总部位于上海的合成材料和树脂生产商中石化上海石化有限公司。
“我们之所以喜欢这只股票，主要是因为它对包括炼油和化工在内的下游业务的纯敞口，”这位香港研究员解释道。“得益于中国以市场为导向的油价调整措施，炼油业务实现了可持续盈利，而化工业务则因油价低迷而经历了重大转机。”
不是每个人都认为有理由乐观。“我们建议投资者不要在此时增加中国的敞口，”在香港瑞银（UBS）执导中国股票研究的闫坤候（也在汽车和汽车零部件领域获得亚军）表示。“我们认为，摩根士丹利资本国际（MSCI）中国的9.5倍远期市盈率是合理的，但在大多数行业，经济增长大幅回升的前景都很渺茫。”
例外情况包括致力于消费者服务的行业——医疗保健、保险、媒体和旅游业等。侯说，瑞银建议客户关注这些领域的成长股，尽管估值要求很高，流动性也很差。
“美国存托凭证也被忽视了，”他认为。“它们占摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数的16%至17%，但目前多数投资者对它们的权重偏低。”