不同的人看不同的东西来s to the hot-button issue of immigration. To Donald Trump, the surprise front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, many immigrants are “criminals, drug dealers, rapists,” as he told Fox News last summer, or at best “cheap labor” costing the U.S. “hundreds of billions of dollars,” as his website claims. Trump became more strident after a terrorist couple killed 14 people in a California shooting, calling for a “total and complete shutdown” of Muslims entering the U.S. To Marine Le Pen, the right-wing nationalist who’s a leading candidate to become France’s next president in 2017, terrorists may be lurking within the floods of Syrian refugees pressing for safe haven in Europe. “Our fears and warnings of the possible presence of jihadists entering our country” came true, Le Pen said after a forged Syrian passport with a Greek immigration stamp was found near the body of one of the terrorists who killed 130 people in Paris in November.
在美国印度出生的企业家沃德霍瓦，面对移民的是他自己的。“我在硅谷的两家公司开始了，给了一千个美国人，”Wadhwa说，现在是斯坦福大学的公司治理岩石中心的研究员。“但是，我们已经扭转了移民，并将今天的企业家送回印度或中国的公司。”
Diana Furchtgott-Roth曾担任美国劳工处的主要经济学家乔治乔治·W·布什，争夺移民帮助经济嗡嗡作用，用数百万个就业机会无法触及。“移民有不同的技能和工作偏好，因此他们使美国工人更有效，”纽约曼哈顿政策研究所的学者弗契特哥特 - 罗斯说。“没有许多美国孩子想要长大成为优秀的人或挑选水果。”
争论移民是否有利或bane have simmered across the developed world for decades, often in sync with economic cycles. But the Syrian exodus and the巴黎恐怖袭击事件have ratcheted passions to the point that candidates like Trump and Le Pen are realistically contending for power and threatening the world’s drift toward closer economic and social integration, a trend long considered inevitable. Between the U.S. election in November 2016 and the French contest five months later, U.K. voters may elect to leave the European Union, primarily to protest unbridled immigration, in a referendum promised by Prime Minister David Cameron. Opinion polls conducted in the wake of the Paris assaults showed a majority favoring so-called Brexit for the first time.
原始数字表明移民是一场政治事故，等待发生。富裕国家的经济合作与发展组织的富国人口从2000年到2013年膨胀了43％，达到11700万。据经合组织（经合组织）的数据，虽然绝大多数人来到工作 - 难民占全球仅仅7％的移民流量，但至少在其所采用的国家，至少在欧洲，他们在其所采用的国家的大量吸引社会福利福利。非洲经合组织成员的外国出生人口中的失业率占地面为近16％，而原生公民的10.8％。
自叙利亚，欧洲最大的难民危机自第二次世界大战之后的人类潮，肯定会增加更多家属 - 并在短期内提高政治温度。美国设法在一年长期的计划下吸收大约70,000份难民，而共和党人诋毁了奥巴马总统，在9月宣布计划之后，在明年召开了10,000名叙利亚难民。相比之下，德国预计将在2015年接受80万叙利亚难民，但总理安吉拉·默克尔的热情态度正在吸引越来越大的批评。In a bid to stem the tide and deflect the political heat, the European Union agreed at the end of November to provide €3 billion ($3.2 billion) in aid to Turkey and to revive membership talks with Ankara in return for the country’s commitment to stanch the flow of refugees into the EU.
It is no wonder that democratic politics have reacted to these pressures, yet the economic and security fears aroused by immigration risk distorting the picture. Immigrants are a key driver of whatever economic expansion the Western world is eking out these days. Cheap labor or not, newcomers account for a striking 70 percent of employment growth in the EU over the past ten years and 46 percent in the U.S., according to OECD data. As of 2015 they will be responsible for 100 percent of population growth in low-fertility Europe.
哈佛大学约翰·肯尼迪政府教授的教授，迅速老化的欧盟需要从联盟外部的新的当前的移民水平，以维持其目前的工人到2050年的工作人员到2050年。替代方案是朝向日本的2.2人物，人类历史中最低。“现在是欧洲学会让他们的人民来的时候 - 不仅仅是因为它是正确的事情，而是因为他们需要他们，”Pritchett在最近的博客文章中写道。
在政治真空中不存在对移民的焦虑。这位政客通常分享当今全球化经济中心的其他职位。Trump has lambasted the Chinese as “people who are destroying your children’s and grandchildren’s future” and advocated a 20 percent tariff on all imports to the U.S. Le Pen wants France to abandon the euro, and in the wake of the Paris attacks she has called for abrogating the Schengen zone of travel without border controls in the heart of Europe. “People may moderate their views once they achieve power, but these policies of Le Pen would be a catastrophe,” saysEric Chaney., chief economist at Paris-based AXA.
Even if ?Trump and Le Pen fail, the resentment propelling them and other nationalist politicians — like Geert Wilders, leader of the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom, who has compared the Koran to我的奋斗and says the Dutch “want their country back,” and Jimmie Åkesson, whose Sweden Democrats say their country needs to stop immigration to save the welfare state — is unlikely to fade. It threatens to undermine internationalist trends that have been ascendant since the collapse of Soviet Communism and China’s shift toward free markets, says Jeffrey Garten, dean emeritus of the Yale School of Management and a former U.S. undersecretary of Commerce. “Globalization has become so complex that it’s creating a kind of indigestion when countries want to get their bearings,” he says. “The enormous backlash against immigration and refugees is an illustration of that.”
然而，生命主义者反对移民和更广泛的整合主义议程的反应并不是一个上面的结论。投票数据可能是矛盾的，但在2014年由美国的PEW研究中心的调查中，U.K.和德国的坚实多数人同意移民“使我们的国家变得更加强大”。在美国，63％的公众认为“移民是一件好事”，根据国家科学院最近的民意调查。
这个底层善意的一个因素是Vivek Wadhwa等人的比例。经合组织国家的30％的移民高度熟练。在经济复苏期间，外国出生的美国居民的工作增长强调了趋势：建设是一个经典的移民雇主，是最具充满活力的行业，从2011年到2014年增加了372,000个工作岗位，但落后于320,000人，落后于专业技术服务。
Canada and Australia have transformed their smaller societies with little dissent by using a merit system to attract the well-off and skilled. Canada’s foreign-born population has swelled to nearly 20 percent of all residents and Australia’s to more than 25 percent, compared with 13 percent in the U.S. and U.K. A stunning 90 percent of Australians believe immigration improves their society, according to a 2015 poll by the Australian National University. Comfort with migration fosters generosity toward refugees. A week after the Paris attacks, newly elected贾斯汀特鲁多的总理签署了一个计划在加拿大加入25,000名叙利亚难民的计划，即使是数十名美国州长签署了非法行政单位，向他们禁止他们的国家。
在较大的富裕国家，移民的种族面貌正在远离挑起最敌人的群体，尽管你可能不知道它听到特朗普或le Pen。在过去的十年中，欧洲欢迎穆斯林较少，更多的欧盟弟兄们来自新的欧盟波兰和罗马尼亚。在美国，亚洲新移民现在从拉丁美洲数量超过了那些。
在深刻的历史转折中，二战70年后，德国是欧洲宽容国际主义的灯塔。默克尔为叙利亚难民打开了大门，并宣布“伊斯兰属于德国”。她的立场引起了不小的反弹，既有她自己的保守派选民，也有反对她的难民分享计划的欧盟伙伴。然而，默克尔为这场危机带来了丰富的政治资本：德国就业率处于1990年统一以来的最高水平，德国民众普遍意识到，由于德国是世界上出生率最低的国家，德国需要新鲜血液。财政大臣的支持率有所下降，但仍保持在50%以上，这一数字令其他西方领导人羡慕。”欧洲外交关系委员会（ECFR）驻柏林办事处主任约瑟夫•詹宁（josefjanning）说：“20%最右翼的选民变得越来越激动，但其他人并不恐慌。”。不过，如果财政大臣未能在春季前恢复秩序感，这种情况可能会改变。”詹宁说：“如果3月份仍有难民住在学校体育馆里，以致于孩子们不得不逃课，耐心可能会耗尽。”。
欧洲人可能会向加拿大和澳大利亚寻求关于吸收移民的全球最佳做法的指导。两国为现代移民时代带来了文化和地理优势：边境历史和与较贫穷国家没有陆地边界。1986年，加拿大打出了世界上第一个面向富有移民的招牌广告，法令规定，任何愿意在加拿大投资50万加元（约合37.5万美元）的人都可以获得永久居留权。这项法律在接下来的十年里带来了57000个家庭，其中大部分是在1997年香港回归中国之前寻求避风港的香港人，还有128000个家庭在所谓的投资者移民计划因担心欺诈而于2010年终止之前。
渥太华在20世纪90年代初建立了这种方法，为一个积分制度提供了一个积分制度，奖励基于候选人的教育和专业成就的大约60％的居留允许。近年来，政府在近年来致力于强调加拿大的英语或法语技能和具体的工作。澳大利亚曾在20世纪70年代初到20世纪70年代初期，从20世纪70年代末开始向亚洲开始开放难民，从越南逃离的人开始。在90年代建立了基于优质的移民。
结果一直在令人惊讶。传统上，传统上几乎完全独家欧洲人，以自2000年以来保持稳定的经济增长率为2％至3％的人;失业率相对较低（澳大利亚目前6％，加拿大7％）;和最小的社会紧张。“移民局作为一个政治争端问题，”皇后大学的公共政策教授Keith Banting说，在安大略省王后大学的教授Keith Banting说。
这些移民政策的成功有助于解释各国的难民的欢迎精神。据联合国难民高级专员称，加拿大作为美国的难民，澳大利亚的基础上的难民基础占据了大致相同的难民。澳大利亚确实在未经授权的寻求庇护者身上采取严厉的线路，将它们锁在近海岛屿或最近，拖船回到他们的起源港口。人权团体已经抨击了这一所谓的强制性拘留政策，但它有助于缩小反移民一国两党，这是在20世纪90年代后期的攻势。
加拿大和澳大利亚最大限度地引进人力资本；美国似乎在浪费自己的时间。美国的先进工业和大学是吸引聪明和雄心勃勃的外国人的世界上最强大的磁铁。经合组织的数据显示，2008年至2012年间，经合组织国家的外国高等教育学生人数从220万增加到270万；超过四分之一的人前往美国校园。绝大多数人在获得学位后将再次被送回家。
经济学家Furchtgott-Roth引用的研究表明，45,000名科学和技术毕业生将留在美国，如果他们有一个选择，那么高新技术人员的临时H-1B签证就会担任75,000名持有人。Wadhwa offers one example from this legion of lost talent: his countryman Kunal Bahl, who earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and management from the University of Pennsylvania in 2007, then went to work for Microsoft Corp. in emerging-markets business development but was eventually deported. Back in India, Bahl, now 31, started Snapdeal, which has grown in five years to become one of India’s leading online shopping sites.
自2014年美国国会全面移民改革失败以来，硅谷一直致力于扩大H-1B计划，该计划每年为6.5万名外国人提供签证。2015年，H-1B窗口开启后，雇主仅用5天时间就提交了23.3万份签证申请；签证是抽签发放的。犹他州共和党参议员奥林·哈奇（Orrin Hatch）今年1月提出的一项法案将把H-1B的上限提高到高需求年份的30万人之多，并取消对美国大学科学、技术、工程和数学专业外国毕业生的所有工作限制。
The H-1B program has come in for criticism following press reports of iconic U.S. employers like Walt Disney Co. and Toys “R” Us replacing hundreds of IT workers with cheaper visa holders, and of Indian outsourcing companies like Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services crowding out U.S. entrepreneurs by flooding the system with applications.
哈奇法案遭遇了两党的抵制，由来自阿拉巴马州的保守派共和党参议员杰夫·塞申斯（Jeff Sessions）领导，得到了工会支持的智库经济政策研究所（Economic Policy Institute）和一些公司的智力支持。”“对H-1B的一些批评是合理的，”瓦德瓦说这个项目应该留给科技初创企业。无论如何，绿卡才是真正的问题。”
共和党参议员查克·格拉斯利（Chuck Grassley）和民主党参议员迪克·德宾（Dick Durbin）去年11月提出了一项朝着瓦德瓦方向发展的法案，将H-1B候选人限制在雇员人数少于50人的公司，并要求他们获得有竞争力的薪水。但改革方案在国会面临重重障碍，许多民主党人拒绝将H-1B问题与全面移民改革脱钩，许多共和党人根本反对任何自由化。”最有可能的结果是僵局，”EPI移民法和政策研究主管DanielCosta说。
将美国与1965年颁布的移民框架留下，在其中四个新的抵达中的三个通过家庭关系。经济学家表示，然而，一个看不见的手操纵了这种冰氧系统，对劳动力市场的效率显着效率。根据经合组织的数据，移民在过去十年中，美国高技能劳动力占劳动力增长的21％，落后于加拿大的31％，但在欧洲的14％之前。
The U.S. has plenty of unskilled immigrants, of course. Nearly 40 percent lack a high school diploma, compared with 9 percent of the native born, according to Furchtgott-Roth. That’s not such a bad thing, says Jennifer Hunt, who filled Furchtgott-Roth’s post at the DoL under President Obama and now teaches at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey. The influx of laborers with limited English means more, not less, opportunity for native-born workers. “Immigration is good because it allows everybody to specialize more in what they’re best at,” Hunt says. “When immigrants come in to do unskilled jobs, they create more jobs for natives that emphasize language and communication.”
经济学家们争论的是，大量的移民劳动力是否会导致工资停滞，而工资停滞已成为当今美国经济的一个令人沮丧的特征。领导学术界移民怀疑派的肯尼迪学院教授乔治·博哈斯（George Borjas）的研究表明，对没有高中学历的工人有明显的影响，由于移民竞争，他们的工资下降了3.1%，但对其他群体影响不大。亨特对此不屑一顾。”有证据表明，土生土长的高中辍学者受到了一点伤害，但我们的反应应该是改善教育，”她说。
The U.S. has made a quiet success of its refugee program, albeit on nothing like the scale Europe is now contemplating. America resettled 66,000 asylum seekers in 2013, about two thirds of the global total, according to the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute (MPI). More than 3 million have arrived since 1980, when current policies took effect, provoking far less public angst than surrounds labor-driven migration. This is true even though the refugee population is more alien — in a typical year comprising 64 nationalities speaking an impressive 162 primary languages — and more deprived than the general immigrant pool.
尽管如此，比16岁的难民更有可能被雇用而不是他们的邻居，特别是男性，其中67％的工作，与60％的当地人相比。一项贡献因素是一个坚韧的爱情政策，通过社区组织提供30天的支持，但许多人在此之后获得了传统的社会利益。虽然在第一次滞后于本土出生的收入，但它们随着时间的推移而急剧提高。据MPI称，抵达十20日至20年前抵达的难民占全国平均水平的87％。
These positive results spring from a system that clears asylum seekers thousands of miles from U.S. shores and holds to a tight annual quota, says Randy Capps, the institute’s director of U.S. research. The largest spontaneous exodus to America was the so-called Mariel boatlift from Cuba in 1980, which brought some 125,000 and spurred the legislative regime that is still in force. “The message for Europe is that refugees come with skills — some, not all of them,” Capps says. “But at some point Europe will have to put on some limits and start scoring people.”
Whereas Canada and Australia accept foreigners based on skills and the U.S. on family, immigration to Europe has been driven by periodic windows for defined groups of people, from ex-colonials and guest workers in the postwar decades to intra-EU migrants since 2000. Once established in employment, newcomers generally enjoy the full social benefits of their host countries, with the partial exception of pensions.
结果一直是一个相对低熟练的移民流，当经济蓬勃发展时，大量流动，但在时代变得艰难的时候可能会成为负担。2000年代，西班牙人口在2000年 - 10年代膨胀了15％，因为建筑工人从东欧，拉丁美洲和北非植入。尽管2008年房地产泡沫爆发，但许多新人仍然存在，加剧了西班牙失业率，仍然高于20％以上。
根据2014年投票，57％的欧洲联盟公民对来自联盟外部的移民的“消极感到负面感到”，而欧洲委员会的欧洲委员会的欧洲委员会的欧洲委员会的欧洲委员会的欧洲委员会的欧洲委员会的欧洲委员会的欧洲委员会的民意调查，有35％的人。欧盟内自由迁徙意见更加支持，但不完全是温暖的：52％阳性和41％的负面。
欧洲核心国家，法国最密切地反映了这种酸性情绪。Le Pen的受欢迎程度毫不奇怪，因为移民的失业率为16％，这是本土出生的失业率的两倍。像Axa的Chaney这样的经济学家责怪关于法国的最低工资的失业 - 每小时9.61欧元（10.19美元），而德国的€8.50和美国的7.25美元 - 以及对射击员工的限制。“如果我们的移民较少，结果将是更高的价格而不是降低失业率，”他说。但法国的人口仍然不相信：52％的人认为移民是“我国的负担”，与PEW民意调查说，45％相信他们使国家更强大。
其他问题令人震惊移民辩论。法国禁令穆斯林妇女从戴头围巾到工作或学校，禁止在许多其他国家似乎无辜的宗教姿态。法国正在为20世纪50年代和60多岁时入住近期卫星城镇的北非工人支付北非工人的价格。这些贫民区在2005年骚乱爆发了三周。“这是安全的，法国的一体化政策并没有像其他一些欧洲国家那样强大的，”经合组织总部位于巴黎的高级移民专家托马斯莱布斯说。
The U.K.’s experience of immigration, as of many things, lies somewhere between North America’s and continental Europe’s. Blessed with the dominant global language and a leading financial capital, the U.K. attracts well-educated immigrants — 46 percent hold a university degree, close to Canada’s 52 percent, according to OECD figures. The adoption of a Canadian-style points system in 2008 may have influenced this result. The U.K. attracts 420,000 foreign students — three times as many as the U.S. in per capita terms — and unemployment rates for immigrant and foreign-born men are about equal. In the U.K. public anxiety about newcomers seems less widespread than on the Continent and motivated more by sociological than economic worries. “People recognize that the Poles and others bring a very good work ethic, and joke about calling a Polish plumber if you really need something done,” says Phil Woolas, former minister for borders and immigration in Gordon Brown’s late-2000s Labour government and now a partner at London-based Wellington Street Partners. “But you will also hear people, particularly in poorer areas, complain about how they don’t recognize their country anymore.”
在他自己的保守党和崛起的Netivist英国独立派对（Ukip）中，卡梅伦在他自己的保守党和崛起的情况下，已经涉及这些问题。他在2010年担任办公室，每年将净迁移到100,000人。相反，由其他欧盟各州的新人推动，它增加了一半至300,000。2013年，总理通过承诺的Brexit公民推荐，他所说的将在2017年之后举行。
Committing to the plebiscite may have helped Cameron in the 2015 general election, when his Tories won a surprise outright majority and UKIP was contained to a single seat at Westminster. But his implicit strategy of using Brexit as a lever to contain intra-EU immigration looks risky. Woolas and Continental analysts say there is little chance of EU partners granting the U.K. an opt-out on labor mobility. “This is not compatible with EU law, and changing the treaties is out of the question,” says the ECFR’s Janning. That leaves Cameron looking to obtain some symbolic victory, such as limiting newcomers’ access to social benefits.
The prime minister does have the relative advantage of time. He can stretch out his chess game with fellow EU leaders for two years before the Brexit deadline, though most analysts expect the referendum by late 2016. Germany’s Merkel faces the much more urgent challenge of finding an EU consensus on refugees, or limiting the flow, before the German public loses patience. “This is not a crisis of numbers; it’s a crisis of politics,” says Alexander Betts, director of the University of Oxford’s Refugee Studies Center. “The 1 million expected in Europe this year are no more than have been living in Lebanon, a country the size of Maryland.”
但政治危机似乎难以解决。瑞典的总理斯法森·斯法文·欧洲历史难民吸收的历史领导者，于11月宣布，“我们根本不能再做了。”匈牙利首相viktororbán德国为11月底，他称之为土耳其的“秘密公约”，默克尔允许曼德尔派将是一个愿意接受40万叙利亚人的国家的“艰苦奋斗”。“我真的很佩服默克尔所做的事情，但除非她得到其他欧洲国家的一些支持，否则她不能维持它，”耶鲁·戈登说。
然而，由于移民辩论加剧，有乐观的理由。最重要的是，西方从未处于更好的位置，以抓住最有前途的移民。国际学生和H-1B签证的争夺中的激增只是移民人力资本供应飙升和需求的两个迹象。
Driving this accelerating brain and wealth drain is the restlessness of China’s well-off and well educated, who are attaining the means to relocate just as their prospects at home appear constrained by slowing growth and entrenched authoritarianism. An astonishing 60 percent of Chinese with net worth above $1.6 million plan to apply for foreign citizenship, according to research by global consulting firm Bain & Co. Meanwhile, Chinese account for nearly 25 percent of the swelling international student army.
在没有持久的有害影响的情况下，发达国家已经收紧了移民。德国于1993年修订了其宪法，以限制新的人在上一年吸收约450,000名波斯尼亚难民后，并看到对仇外政党的支持飙升;它于2005年重温。强制性难民拘留有助于澳大利亚在20世纪90年代后期举行了一个国家党。玛格丽特·撒切尔的1979年选举为u.k.总理对全国阵线进行了夸大，这倡导驱逐非白人移民。
Few voters in developed countries are blind to the benefits of hardworking Polish plumbers, Indian software engineers and Chinese graduate students. The key word that jumps out of conversations across the West is “control.” Says Queen’s University’s Banting: “Canadians are not better than other people. But we do have three oceans and the United States to keep our flow under control.”
美国和欧洲领导人在维持这种控制方面的面临挑战，随着欧洲开放内部边界，中东局面和国内政治进一步走向思想极端的思想偏离比赛。然而，如果政治家可以找到它们，那么选民似乎打开了解决方案，以及让移民执军的好处从未如此明显。
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