令人反对的是垃圾债券的感觉是什么

Most investors tell stories about being the odd man out, the contrarian, long after their bold and messy moves have paid off. Their retrospective tales often get taller once the market has recovered and the critics have been silenced.

But sometimes it’s true. William Eigen III, a veteran bond manager who is part owner of several auto repair shops and a restorer of classic American cars like Chevrolet Camaros, is currently scooping up high-yield bonds, even as investors race the other way and abandon the asset class in record numbers. Eigen, who runs $25 billion in opportunistic credit funds atJ.P. Morgan Asset Management他说，自2009年初以来，他最兴奋的是他一直是关于较低的公司债券。

High-yield fund outflows are creating huge contrarian opportunities for intrepid investors like Eigen. For instance,州街全球顾问据投资公司研究所称，“高收益兑换基金损失了约9％的资产，或者10亿美元，而垃圾债券资金总体上涨了94亿美元的流出。据10月份，流入垃圾基金是近纪录。在九月Frontier Communications Corp.在历史上发布了第五大的高收益交易。Through December 14, high-yield was down 5.15 percent; two weeks prior, the category was down only 1.44 percent.

“If you’re going to slam a market with that much supply, it’s going to break down,” says Eigen. He adds that the high-yield market remains healthy, with an average dollar price for the JPMorgan High Yield index of 86, and interest coverage and net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (ebitda) is much higher than in the past bear market. The average dollar price was in the low 80s before the Christmas holiday. Though defaults remain at 2 percent, the market is pricing in an 8 percent to 9 percent default rate, he says. “You could default the entire energy sector and metals and mining at 30 cents on the dollar, and you couldn’t get close to that,” he laughs. Eigen is on a roll: “A true bubble was ’07, ’08. Issuance was rotten to the core, you could put a dead squirrel carcass in a pizza box, and it would get oversubscribed. You don’t have that now.”

Eigen, who learned about cars from his father, an Army mechanic, is used to speeding around the track counterclockwise. After rising through the ranks at Fidelity Investments and growing the firm’s then-fledgling Strategic Income Fund and multisector institutional products to $10 billion, he quit in 2005. Eigen was using a still fairly rare strategy at the time: moving money between different fixed-income asset classes, depending on his views of the market. But he felt he couldn’t protect his investors anymore because risk premiums were tight, rates were low, and the fund’s mandate was to be fully invested at all times. Instead, he wanted to run an absolute-return fund, which would do well in any market environment, and get out of the business of relative returns, measuring himself merely against the fund manager up the street or a random benchmark.

eigen希望使用短路和对冲技术来保护投资者的资金。他首先搬到了对冲基金公司高桥资本管理，然后于2008年到J.P. Morgan，拥有大桥的股份。他的J.P.摩根基金仍在不同的资产课程之间迁移，但他也可以进行相对价值的交易 - 既长短，又对冲以较大的价格下跌。

尽管高产的巨大机会，但尖端对投资者感到沮丧。“像往常一样，投资者完全从事自我挫败的行为。They buy when returns are strong and you’re not getting paid for the risk, and they sell when it goes down, spreads are wide, and you’re getting compensated incredible amounts to own the asset class,” says the fast-talking Eigen. He spoke to us in an interview punctuated by lots of laughter, a little swearing, pointed criticism of financial reporting designed to “scare investors” and to-the-decimal-point statistics on gross domestic product and leverage ratios.

高收益率艰难了一年。Credit Suisse表示，美国垃圾债券的产量从11月初的11.43％达到了8.89％，截至12月18日。第三大道管理当罕见的一步是在12月初预防其投资者兑现其被占用的信用基金的罕见步骤时爆发了市场。虽然基金不是一个高收益债券基金 - 它充满了高度弱势的证券 - 投资者将其作为更多问题的标志。

Eigen says his market experience illustrates how investors maim themselves by buying and selling at the absolute worst times. In 2007 and ’08 the J.P. Morgan Income Opportunity Fund, which he now manages, didn’t own any high-yield, even though investors were racing to buy it. “Now here we sit with great valuations, but people would rather buy a ten-year Treasury at 2 percent,” he says, adding that he expects a 20 percent return on high-yield from just collecting interest payments and 150 basis points of spread tightening.

J.P.摩根收入机会基金在较低额定信贷中具有约46％，包括综合。现金从大约65％到30％，仍然支出。他最终可能会使垃圾分配达到55％或60％。该基金还有对冲到位，包括缩短投资级，一些新兴市场债务。

“当我购买高收益率时，我总是觉得我是唯一一个，因为我通常在水中购买血液时，”他说。他的举措确实导致块状回报。2009年，该基金近20％，因为他于2008年和2009年初获得了很大的购买。由于他在2011年在欧洲债务危机期间获得了成立，他在2012年上涨了8％以上。

尽管他的perfectly happy buying what others are throwing out, he does suffer some criticism. “So much venom is being directed my way right now,” he says. “Last year, June 14, when we were at maximum cash, I was screamed at for not putting the cash to work in yieldy products. Now I’m getting yelled at for spending my cash.” Criticism makes many portfolio managers cower. It’s also the logic behind much of behavioral finance: that humans are captives of their minds’ wiring. We were once rewarded for following the crowd that was running from the predator. But it’s damaging behavior in the investment world.

eigen说，如果他关心职业风险 - 损害大胆的决定可能会在工作前景上造成批评 - 他将无法加入直接落后的资产课程。“我这样做是因为我喜欢它，”他说。当他跑星基金时，戒烟暗示他并不一直在考虑他的职业生涯。

但他也有信心他正在做正确的事。“我在高产上看到了15％至25％的[内部回报率]。2014年，这是5至8 [百分比]，“他说。Here’s a revelatory statistic: This week the yield on the Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II index, which is filled with highly liquid junk bonds, was 8.1 times the yield of the Merrill Lynch Global Government Bond Index II, which includes Europe, the U.S. and some emerging markets like Indonesia and Brazil. The record is a little more than 9 during the financial crisis. Investors are getting paid eight times as much to own U.S. high-yield in a growth environment with 2 percent defaults than they are to own a globally diversified basket of government bonds from all over the world. Every time the yield gets close to where it is now, high-yield subsequently outperforms. “But you gotta kick everyone out of the club before it’s going to get good,” he concludes.