Emerging-markets stocks have taken a beating in recent years, depressed by the continuing slump in commodities prices and slowing growth, especially in China. But some investors see attractive value in one intriguing corner of this sector: the shares of emerging markets’ stock exchanges themselves.
It may seem counterintuitive to invest in the sites where the carnage is taking place. Emerging-markets equities have been in a bear market for five years, and the sell-off accelerated last year with the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index falling nearly 17 percent in 2015. Yet the exchanges offer value that many other EM stocks do not.
对于初学者来说，他们是自然垄断。光线资本要求，他们产生了大量的现金流量，经常支付高股息产量。如果交易量仍然坚强，交易所即使在熊市中也能表现良好。“我们爱股票交易，”伦敦高盛资产管理的全球客户组合管理和业务战略，基本股权全球主管凯瑟琳·科赫说。“我们无法得到足够的。”
投资者in EM stock exchanges differ in their perspectives: Some buy and hold, whereas others get in only when the valuation is compelling and leave after share prices rise to an expected target value.
Standard Life Investments takes a tactical approach. “For us, if a stock exchange is priced appropriately for the merits of its business model, then it’s not necessarily that interesting an investment,” says Mark Vincent, investment director of emerging-markets equities at the Edinburgh-based investment firm. “It becomes interesting when there is a dynamic of change that is going to drive earnings and cash flow above market expectations.”
Such dynamics may include the advent ofhigh frequency trading, increased market volatility, growth in derivatives products and the rise of multiasset funds. “All those things bring more trading volume to an exchange,” says Vincent. “That drives up revenue.” For example, at BM&F Bovespa in Brazil, the average daily trading volume in the third quarter of 2015 was up 24 percent over the year-earlier period, even though theBrazilian economy sank deeper into recession。
Standard Life’s Global Emerging Markets Equity Income Strategy, which was launched in June 2012 and has £321.5 million ($468.2 million) in assets, invested in the São Paulo–based exchange at a time when market fears about the possible launch of a rival exchange drove down BM&F Bovespa’s share price, according to Vincent. “We thought those fears were overblown,” he says. The exchange’s shares rose 43 percent from June 2012 to January 28, 2013, whereas the benchmark Ibovespa index declined 22 percent over that period.
标准生活也投资了莫斯科交易所2013年2月首次公开发售。“莫斯科交易所获得了很多本地名单，并希望将一些流动性带到伦敦的一些流动性回到莫斯科的交易所，”这使得交流有吸引力的投资，文森特说。在1月7日截至1月7日的五年中，小鼠指数上涨了1％，而莫斯科交易所集团的股份则飙升73.3％。
Standard Life has since exited both the Moscow and São Paulo exchange holdings, although Vincent did not provide details of the date or performance of those investments.
高盛萨克斯资产管理追求更多买卖策略。“我们的理念是在声音中发现超出局部回报，强大的企业对内在价值的大折扣，”Koch说。该公司的50亿美元新兴市场资金拥有10％的股票交易，目前在巴西，墨西哥，波兰，南非和香港举行股票。相比之下，交易所占MSCI新兴市场指数的1.5％。
Goldman likes the fact that trading volumes on stock exchanges can be high when markets are going down as well as up. “It’s not necessarily a pro-cyclical game,” says Koch. “It’s a company that’s tied to flows — and flows can be strong throughout the cycle.”
BM&F Bovespa是Goldman的控股之一，说明了在倒下市场的证券交流的持续力量。随着巴西的商品驱动繁荣有胸围，基准IBOVESPA股指于2015年下降了13.3％，但BM＆F Bovespa的股票今年上涨了11.5％。部分圣保罗证券交易所上诉是其追踪贸易量的轨道记录。
South Africa is another emerging-markets economy hit by the crash in commodity prices. The country narrowly avoided recession in 2015 as gross domestic product declined at a 1.3 percent rate in the second quarter but rebounded at a 0.7 percent rate in the third. Even so, shares in JSE, the company that runs the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, rose by 7.9 percent in 2015. Over the past two years, JSE shares have soared some 50 percent. In Johannesburg, as in São Paulo, high trading volumes and the accompanying profits — even during the downside of the business cycle — have helped the exchanges shares outperform the broader market.
高盛特别喜欢股息交易所的股息收益率可以是天空高的。例如，在波兰经营华沙证券交易所的WSE集团决定提高其股息产量。“去年，我们在华沙证券交易所管理委员会的首席战略官员和副总裁Grzegorz Zawada表示，我们在股息中支付了89.9％。”即便如此，WSE Group的股价在今年早些时候缩小，以回应股息提升，逆转课程并达到今年，跌幅为21％。
并不是所有的高盛的停止ck exchange investments have seen big gains. The Bolsa Mexicana de Valores suffered a 13.6 percent share price decline in 2015 — not quite as bad as the nearly 17 percent fall in the overall MSCI emerging-markets benchmark. One reason is the breadth of trading on the exchange. “Unlike exchanges in places like New York or São Paulo, our exchange generates a lot of revenue from the debt market,” maintains José Manuel Allende, senior vice president of issuers and information services at Bolsa Mexicana.
但总体而言，鉴于新兴市场的自然 - 即有足够的发展空间 - 高盛认为这些国家的股票交易所的经济体。“作为资本形成发生，将列出更多的市场资本化，交易所将是其中的受益者，”Koch说。
更多地获得更多新兴市场。