2016全欧洲研究团队:比荷卢(Benelux)，第1名:David Tailleur &团队

大卫Tailleur一位长期投资者观察到，他在乌得勒支的荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)团队拥有“令人印象深刻的当地知识财富”。“他们在农产品、金融机构和保险领域都很强大，尤其是在荷兰。”最近，Tailleur的团队一直在关注比荷卢地区以外的一个重大事件:超市行业的整合。荷兰巨头皇家阿霍德(Royal Ahold)和比利时竞争对手德尔海兹集团(Delhaize Group)在5月份承认，他们正在讨论合并事宜，到下个月月底，这两家零售商已经确认了合并的意向。荷兰合作银行的研究人员对这笔261亿欧元(合291亿美元)的交易持乐观态度，他们将Ahold的评级从“持有”上调为“买入”。由此产生的实体将成为比荷卢三国最大的食品连锁运营商，同时也是美国第五大食品连锁运营商。在美国，阿霍德的Stop & Shop和Giant门店将与Delhaize的Food Lion和Hannaford门店拥有相同的所有权。此外，Tailleur认为，阿霍德的管理层避免了支付“收购溢价”来产生这些规模效益。他建议说，合并后的大多数零售商市场的盈利势头已经是积极的。他的集团预计，阿霍德德尔海兹公司的业绩将以“成本节约带来的可观现金回报”回报股东，并从这家荷兰公司作为在线销售领导者的崛起中进一步获益。这位42岁的领导人补充说:“我们特别喜欢阿霍德公司2016年大约8%的高自由现金流收益率。” The deal is expected to close by July, and the analysts assign Ahold’s stock a target of €23.50. In mid-January it was trading at €19.27. Meantime, they continue to recommend that investors buy Royal BAM Groep, a Netherlands-based construction services provider with significant operations in Belgium, Germany, Ireland and the U.K. Already exceeding expectations amid Europe’s modest recovery, Tailleur explains, the executive team deployed €300 million in working capital last year while reducing costs by €100 million, bolstering the team’s forecast of “double-digit free-cash-flow yield in the 2015–’18 period.” BAM’s shares rocketed 94.9 percent, to €4.60, during the 12 months through mid-January, compared with the European market’s decline of 5.9 percent. Tailleur and his cohorts believe a price of €6.25 is justified in the nearer term, with €8 to €10 possible over the next few years.