高收益率：不是Armageddon，但几乎没有天堂

这高产债券市场has soared over the past six weeks, after a 21-monthpl作为交易商和投资者意识到经济和金融市场不一定面临着世界末日。

那么好的时光可能会继续吗？是的，也不，分析师说。大多数人都不希望价格从这里堕落，他们看到了某些问题的空间进一步上升。但总的来说，他们不希望市场移动。他们说，经济持续温和的增长为市场提供了支持，但不足以使其崛起。

这美国银行Merrill LynchHigh Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread index over Treasuries stood at 682 basis points on Thursday. That’s close to the 708 basis-point fair-value level calculated by veteran junk bond analyst Martin Fridson. His gauge is based on credit availability, industrial production, capacity utilization, the five-year Treasury yield and the default rate.

“鉴于传播已经收紧了多少，纽约雷曼利维安弗里德森顾问的首席投资官Fridson说，跳跃了潮流，跳上了潮流的困境是错误的。”“如果你只是在寻找收入，它有意义。我认为它可能会升级并做得好。“

美国银行的传播已经从t缩水了205个基点he four-year high of 887 points it reached February 11. Between February 11 and March 11, the BofA Merrill Lynch high-yield spread index returned 8 percent, which would be the third-best-performing calendar month in history, Fridson says.

Even market pessimists like Michael Contopoulos, head of high-yield strategy at BofA, sayjunk bonds一场集会成熟。他说：“对经济衰退的恐惧是在一年中的前六周的夸张，”他说。根据亚特兰大联邦储备的预测模型，该经济在第四季度仅扩大了1％的百分比，但在第一季度增长1.9％。

中央银行政策也在帮助垃圾债券。日本银行和欧洲央行今年提高了他们的宽松努力，美联储表明它的下一个利率加息并不迫在眉睫。同时，自2月11日以来，油价已跃升约50％。

弗里森说，走向稳定的经济增长点稳定的垃圾债券价格。“如果经济持有，高收益市场也应该举起，”他说。

据新泽西州纽瓦克，新泽西州的审慎总回报债券基金联合经理Michael Collins表示，而垃圾债券显然并不像他们仍然吸引人的那样吸引人。“美联储是愿望的，利率将在全球范围内保持低位，”他说。“这应该鼓励收益率。”BOFA Merrill Lynch高收益率分布指数收益率为8.29％，而十年财政部票据的额度为1.87％。根据穆迪的投资者服务的说法，根据穆迪的投资者服务的说法，每年预期的全球违约率在上个月的谦虚4.7％上。

Collins and his colleagues have been buying consumer sector bonds. “We’re optimistic on the consumer,” he says, citing gains in jobs, wages and home sales and lower gasoline prices. The problem, of course, is that’s a crowded trade, as many managers are flocking to the safest areas of the market. “That’s the challenge for managers,” Collins says. “That’s where credit research teams earn their money.” Although he can’t reveal his fund’s recent purchases, his team looks for companies with some problems but not enough to put them in the distressed part of the market. And the team goes for senior debt: secured bank loans. “In the worst-case scenario, you’re getting paid, and there could be good value,” Collins says.

He is also looking at “fallen angels” in the commodities sector. These are ten- or 30-year bonds of commodities companies that were issued at investment-grade and have fallen into junk. Metals miner Freeport-McMoRan, based in Phoenix, is “the classic poster child” for this, he says. “There are a slew of commodities companies moving into that area.” The fund seeks bigger companies that have the ability to sell assets. “It’s not for the faint of heart,” Collins says. “These bonds are falling knives.”

不是每个人都在高收益市场中看到了价值。“我们可能是街上最大的看跌战略家，”Bofa的Contopoulos说。“我们在2014年9月转为负面，因为我们在信贷周期结束时。”他现在没有理由进行改变。“与熊市集会一直稳步下降，我们认为这也是如此。

Contopoulos说，过去一个月的基本图片没有太多变化。他注意到，制造业可能会触底，但在低基地。他对消费者的观点与柯林斯的观点不同。Contopoulos于1月和2月的零售销售的幻灯片，以及次级汽车贷款的升高默认为该部门的弱点。

“对于制造业的每一个小的收益，似乎有一个来自消费者行业的反应，人们对经济燃料的银行业，”他说。策略师表示，佛佛经济学家不指望，美国和全球仍然是一个令人担忧的衰退。他预计美国BOFA Merrill Lynch的高收益率差价指数将在整个年度恢复零至-1％，今年到目前为止逆转3％的积极回报。

因此，尽管市场参与者同意价格不会继续上升，但在过去的六周内，有足够的证据支持市场领导的广泛意见。