IMF Says Sub-Saharan Africa Still Has Room to Grow

国际货币基金组织官员仍然乐观地对撒哈拉以南非洲经济体持乐观态度，尽管平均增长率在艰巨的商品价格和地区招聘尼日利亚区域省电的经济衰退的迹象中，但仍然存在艰巨。

“The narrative of Africa rising is not over,” IMF deputy managing director Mitsuhiro Furusawa told a panel at the Fund’s spring meeting in Washington this past weekend. “We are sure that the region’s future is still bright.”

经过十年的文艺复兴，刺激了Africa succeeding East Asiaas the world’s economic tiger, sub-Sahara’s average growth will slide to 3 percent this year, barely outpacing population expansion of 2 percent, the IMF forecasts. Commodity-dependent nations such as Angola, Nigeria and Zambia are grappling with plunging currencies and gaping budget gaps and thus rushing back to international institutions for financial assistance.

然而，商品进口邻居，包括科特迪瓦，肯尼亚和塞内加尔福萨哇哇指出，正在获得较低价格的好处。“我们在该地区有八个国家的增长率超过5％，”他说。“改善商业环境的司机与有利的人口统计学相结合仍然完好无损。”

Hard times, meanwhile, may necessitate vital reforms in exporting nations that are suffering, Furusawa said. Nigerian Finance minister Kemi Adeosun, who also spoke at the panel, gave a spirited explanation of how her government is not letting the crisis go to waste. A key to Nigeria’s current financial instability is that oil receipts account for 13 percent of gross domestic product but 70 percent of government revenue. “We have begun to think about what happens to the other 87 percent of our economy,” said Adeosun, a London-born accountant who was appointed last November by newly elected PresidentMuhammadu Buhari. The Nigerian state collects just 6 percent of GDP in taxes, according to the IMF. That compares with 16 percent for Rwanda, which the Fund holds up as an African model, and 18 percent for India.

非石油收入largely siphoned off by quasi-independent state companies that control the country’s ports, airports and other lucrative chokepoints, Adeosun discovered. The Nigerian government has begun “hand-to-hand combat” to recapture those flows for the state treasury, she said. Adeosun is simultaneously attacking what the administration has called “indiscipline,” which squanders too much of existing revenue on civil service salaries and perks — leaving next to nothing for investment. “Last year we had only 10 percent of our budget for capital expenditure,” she said. “This year we hope to reach 30 percent.” Her ministry is also cracking down on corporate tax evaders, forcing more than 300 companies to pay value-added tax over the past few months, she said. “Our rate of VAT compliance is about 12 percent,” she said. “There is a lot of low-hanging fruit.”

然而，与此同时，Adeosun躲避了尼日利亚最直接经济伤害的问题：决定离开国家货币，奈良，正式挂钩美元并控制对硬货币的访问。这拥有RILED公司财务，并刺激了一个黑色的市场，以约40％的折扣交易Naira。财政部长表示，这些事项由央行确定，她对投资者对由此产生的混乱的关注表示不耐烦。“尼日利亚首次拥有致力于反腐败的行政，现在每个人都只是关注货币政策，”她说。

Ministers from less financially turbulent African nations than Nigeria pledged that a global macroeconomic chill would give them fresh impetus to reform. Rwandan Finance and Economic Planning minister Claver Gatete said at the weekend panel that he is focused on financial sector development, using mobile technology to draw the population’s cash resources out from under the mattresses and into the banks, and regional integration with Uganda and other East African neighbors. “We are working intensively on reducing border obstructions and eliminating cell phone roaming charges,” he told the IMF audience. “Our aim is to harmonize growing economies from Ethiopia to Tanzania.”

肯尼亚竞争当局总干事弗朗西斯卡里施斯表示，肯尼亚预计今年今年将维持在6％以上的增长率，正在努力打破市场卡特尔。他说，在提供玉米和糖等必需食品方面，在提供必要的食品方面，曾对电信和银行业等服务进行了斗争的垄断。Kariuki的代理商被引用在世界银行报告中，以便去年在该国私人医生和医院中击败价格定价计划，每年节省170万美元。

A steady stream of positive steps like this one creates momentum for sub-Saharan Africa that should outlast the current commodities-driven turbulence, said Arvind Subramanian, a former IMF official who is now chief economic adviser to the government of India. “We have seen underlying improvement in governance taking place for the past ten to 12 years,” he said. “The view is very upbeat.”

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