Carlo Messina Tries to Shield Intesa from Italian Bank Crisis

Carlo Messina has an Italian problem. The chief executive of Intesa Sanpaolo runs one of the strongest banks in Europe by many metrics, with solid profitability, a low cost-to-income ratio and a lofty capital buffer. Yet Intesa is tarred with the very broad brush of Italy’s wider economic and financial woes.

Europe’s fourth-largest economy has endured a triple-dip recession since the global financial crisis, and even with a modest recovery that began last year, output remains 10 percent below the precrisis peak. Only the bailout states of Cyprus, Greece and Portugal have fared worse among euro area countries.

That economic decline has taken a heavy toll on Italy’s banking sector, which lumbers under the weight of €360 billion ($400 billion) in nonperforming loans (NPLs). Efforts to consolidate four strugglingpopolari或者，去年贷方贷款人触发了银行股票的大抛售，因为投资者将这些银行额外贷款书的沮丧的恢复值推断给整个部门。今年早些时候，银行股票在意大利的资产上最大的贷方未能吸引投资者未能吸引投资者15亿欧元的资本筹集，这是另一个区域贷方的推销，刺激恐惧可以留在钩子上。政府乐天的银行和保险公司占据了50亿欧元的基金，亚特兰特，靠背，靠近维琴察的交易，但对该部门的信心继续推翻了潮流。

股价在7月后再次承压overnment-organized rescue plan for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena — the world’s oldest bank and Italy’s third largest — raised fresh doubts about loan quality. MPS, which flunked a European Union stress test, will seek to raise €5 billion in fresh equity later this year after securitizing its €28 billion bad-loan portfolio at a price of 33 cents on the dollar.

Having the most positive story in Italian banking, as Messina does, wins little credit these days. Intesa’s stock closed at €1.82 a share on August 3, down 50 percent from its July 2015 high.

梅斯娜那54, spent 18 years rising through the ranks of Intesa and its predecessor, Banco Ambrosiano Veneto, becoming head of retail before being named CEO in 2013. He is forging ahead with a four-year restructuring program that aims to more than triple earnings by 2017 by shedding noncore assets, cutting costs in the group’s Italian corporate and retail banking businesses, and expanding in the capital-light, fee-generating fields of asset and wealth management and insurance. Messina is confident of success because Intesa’s franchise rests on serving households and family-owned companies in northern Italy — still one of Europe’s wealthiest regions, he notes — and the economy continues to recover, albeit at a tepid rate of just under 1 percent. Net income fell 14.8 percent in the first half of 2016, to €1.71 billion, as the European Central Bank’s negative interest rates depressed net interest margins, but lending revived, fee and commission income increased at a healthy 10 percent pace, asset quality improved slowly, and the bank passed the EU stress test with flying colors, with a common equity tier-1 capital ratio of 12.9 percent.

“我们是唯一大型欧洲银行在这样一个strong position,” Messina told analysts in presenting the bank’s results. “In a rational market we should have the benefit of a lower cost of capital compared to our peers. But I don’t know if the market is rational.”

梅斯娜has sharpened Intesa’s discipline, carefully allocating capital to areas that can generate solid returns, says Davide Serra, founder and CEO of Algebris Investments. “He’s top-class,” says Serra, whose $4.3 billion, London-based hedge fund firm owns roughly $300 million of Intesa stock and debt.

梅斯娜met recently with International Editor汤姆布梅尔在他的米兰办事处讨论了他的战略和意大利及其银行面临的挑战。

亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者: How strong, or weak, is the Italian banking sector?

梅斯娜：去年9月意大利银行系统是世界上最好的股票表现者之一，但它具有相同数量的不良贷款，与今天相同的规定覆盖。它是典型的市场，当一些对冲基金决定对银行业的职位取得职位时，他们可以移动期望。在移动期望中，典型的是你有一段时间的负面表现。

然后，您在意大利的四个小银行通过对银行的次级债务进行了一项小银行的决议，您对意大利的四个小银行进行了非常重要的错误，该债务率先筹集了零售客户的储蓄。那种不应该发生的管理不善。我们成功地将这种决议转变为意大利银行系统的杀戮因素。

But if a capital raising by one popolare bank can foster doubts about the largest bank in the country, UniCredit, what does that say about the sector?

今天，负面消息的流动是在意大利的不正常贷款，但如果您考虑抵押品，那么不完美的贷款的立场比其他欧洲国家的职位要好得多。在意大利，我们有零1级资产。我们有零衍生物，零曝光于其他银行业，特别是德国和法国人的东西。

In Italy we have a big amount of nonperforming loans deriving from the 10 percent decline in GDP since the global financial crisis, but the country is in a recovery mood and the real estate market is rebounding. So the collateral is recovering.

Many analysts say the Atlante fund is too small. Fair criticism?

我们建立了一个可以成为市场制造商的乐器，而不是可以购买所有不完整贷款的仪器。没有欧洲银行系统，甚至是美国银行系统，具有零不合形的贷款。但是，如果解决方案是为不现实的贷款创建市场，亚特兰特就是一个解决方案。该基金可以订阅初级或私募股权。在每笔交易中，银行将不得不订阅初级裁员。然后有可能有夹层的支柱，收益率可以吸引保险公司和养老基金。因此，实际潜力接近30亿欧元。如果您有可能大大减少不良股票的不良股票，那真的是一个很好的解决方案。

Do you think we’ll see a significant increase in the pace of bad-loan sales?

That’s happening. Banks are receiving offers from private equity funds at prices that are much higher than two months ago just because you have a market maker in the market. This is not the case with Intesa Sanpaolo because we have no need to make disposals.

我们还达到了意大利实体经济中的一个非常重要的观点：房地产市场交易的恢复。过去一年和价格稳定的交易数量增加了20％。

What benefits are you getting from your restructuring program, and what do you need to do in the next two years?

We are really in a very good position if we compare the bank today with the starting point. We are probably now one of the top players in Europe. We reduced both nonperforming loans and noncore assets.

The engine for growth that we promised to the market two years ago is really creating significant value for our shareholders. We reached a cost-to-income ratio that is now best-in-class in Europe, deriving from revenue increases and cost control. What we need is only to reduce the cost of credit. This is a bank that will remain between 45 and 50 percent cost to income if we can reduce the cost of risk [bad debt provisions] to below 80 basis points, the plan’s target for 2017. And that is absolutely possible because the cycle is coming back to the precrisis situation. The inflow of new nonperforming loans is really minimal.

You registered good loan growth in the first half. Is the economy on the mend?

绝对。在意大利，内部需求产生的消费量显着增加。家庭已经投资了受雷曼危机影响的大量资产管理产品。然后他们搬进了意大利政府债券和房地产。当公共债务危机于2011年受到影响时，他们受到100个基点到550的债券收益率的增加的影响。你觉得自己贫穷，因为你对市场有负面的标志，所以你决定削减消费。另一方面，政府对房地产的税收增加。所以家人决定说：“好的，我会留出消费。如果我没有出售，我将保持富裕，因为我不会采取任何损失。“

The spread has now moved back to a range of 100, 150 basis points, and families are feeling rich again. They are increasing their demand for products, and companies are increasing investment. So loans are increasing. Internal demand is bringing growth to around 1 percent. That is not an emerging-market rate, but it is the growth rate that Italy used to have before the crisis.

您认为银行可以维持今年和接下来是什么样的贷款增长？

We’re looking at the potential to grow between 2 and 3 percent in the loan book. What we consider strategic is mortgages with retail clients because this is an area where we are gaining significant market share. And we consider it strategic for cross-selling in the retail network because the second step of our business plan is establishing one of the best wealth management companies in Europe.

你如何发展这项业务？

我们认为在欧洲创建领先公司有一个重要的潜力，因为我们在管理的管理下拥有1500亿欧元的资产，可以转换为管理层的资产，我们拥有更多或更少的500亿欧元的存款可以转换为资产在管理层下。我们吸引了更多来自意大利银行的存款。只需四分之一，我们增加了100亿欧元的存款。

We are creating products that guarantee a portion of capital for the clients and guarantee some yield. The target is clear: We want to convert the majority of this potential that we have within our company, and we are sure that we can do it.

您认为我们是否会恢复恢复，允许欧洲央行提高汇率？

After two years there will be, in my view, an increase in interest rates because there are situations that are not sustainable for more than two years. Insurance companies have significant power in countries that are much stronger than Italy. If you look at Germany, there are a lot of players that can be affected by negative interest rates.

在两年的时间里，实际经济可能会恢复，他们将不得不阻止这种量化的宽松态度，因此他们将陷入更现实的方法。我们需要处于利用这种恢复的职位。我们必须完成银行的所有重组，因为来自量化宽松的这些强大益处将结束。

Are you satisfied with the pace of reform that Prime Minister Renzi is making?

是的，一点没错。他在意大利做了什么，在20年内没有人完成。在一年半，他成功地制作了一些改革，在我看来，对我国非常重要。如果您看看失业，您可以看到劳动力市场改革的直接效益。

He’s also promised to reform the bankruptcy code. How significant is that?

[财政部长码头卡洛]帕多恩通过了改革，将七年到两年或三年减少了复苏的时间。这对于Intesa Sanpaolo的恢复行为来说可能是非常重要的。这种改革对于银行业和意大利的真正经济非常有利。期望是，通过增加恢复率并加快恢复过程，这可以提高非正常贷款价格。影响可能是5％，10％的不良品不佳。

Are you worried about fragmentation within Europe following theBrexit vote?

It is clear that you can have two possibilities, from a political point of view. One is a fragmentation. The other is to work in a serious way in order to create an infrastructure that can work as the Ministry of Finance for Europe, accelerating the process of integration. My expectation is that there could be an acceleration of this process of creating a real political entity in Europe. Brexit can lead politicians to look at the interest of Europe and not only at the interest of their country.

投资者say your biggest weakness is that Intesa is so tied to the Italian economy. What do you say to that?

Until last September investors told us, “You are the European Wells Fargo; you are very easy to manage and understand.” Today we hear, “Okay, you are good” — because all the comments on the bank and the management are really positive — “but you are Italian.”

My position is that we are so strong because we are Italian. Our possibility to leverage our wealth management is derived from the fact that we are Italian. And we are working with a very triple-A part of our country — that is, the savings of the family. •

Visit汤姆布梅尔’s blogand follow him on Twitter at@tombuerkle.。