John Bogle预测华尔街将作为索引的成长而受到打击

At 87, John Bogle is still going strong. The Vanguard Group founder’s decades-long passion for delivering low-cost, simple investment solutions shows no sign of abating. In fact, it may be partly responsible for Bogle’s youthful zeal. “My life should be ebbing, but I seem to be reaching a new high,” he tells Institutional Investor.

的确。在1974年推出Vanguard的Bogle提供指数和空载共同基金，已经看到大部分金融业过来。他报告说，索引产品，包括共同基金和交易所交易资金，现在占全球业务的约30％。在资产中，Vanguard，Bogle在1996年担任首席执行官，博格尔保留了一个办公室，是世界上最大的基金经理。

金融服务业如何帮助投资者节省足够的退休金？

当股票市场返回约11.25％时，我在这个行业中长达了65岁了65年。我们将来不会得到这些类型的回报。因此，华尔街与主要街道之间的投资回报划分将不得不倾向于主街。

Think about where returns are generated. They’re generated in corporate America. And these companies are in business to provide good products and services that meet the needs of the public or large corporations or even government entities in the country, and when they do that and they do a good job at it, they start to grow. And they make money, and that money grows. It’s earnings, growth, and dividend yield that make the returns that investors as a group进入股票市场。我们手上有一个非常简单的问题：我们如何让投资者成为一个公平的摇晃？这就是索引的。

索引如何解决华尔街与主要街道的问题？

Think about it this way. You can access the returns of the total stock market through an index fund at five basis points a year, which is five one-hundredths of 1 percent a year. Or you can access it by going on your own and buying mutual funds, trading stocks yourself, and access that return, and you lose 2 percent a year. You’re paying not only management fees but portfolio turnover costs. You have 拖of cash. There are sales loads out there. And 2 percent is probably a conservative number.

我们知道投资者作为群体捕获市场回报。他们不能做得更好作为一个团体。我们知道，由于这些投资者来说，市场回报将由智能方式和智慧方式分享 index,or the much less smart way — I might even say the dumb way — of being part of a mass of people who are, by their vast numbers, indexed. In other words, as a groupthese active investors also own the stock market in the aggregate, but their gross returns are overwhelmed by excessive costs, leading to much smaller net returns.

What needs to happen to rationalize asset management?

Let me tell you how it’s worked so far. Believe it or not, since 2007 — that’s a long period of time — through September 2016, equity mutual fund investors have put $1.6 trillion into index funds and taken out $700 billion from actively managed funds. That is a $2.3 trillion swing in investor preferences. So it’s happening.

它会发生当我们得到更多Department of Labor rule, the DoL fiduciary standard [which requires stockbrokers, insurance salespeople, and other financial advisers to act in their clients’ best interest]. You see a lot of firms aren’t selling load funds anymore. The implications are wide, and they all point to giving the investor a higher share of the market’s return. That’s good for investors, and it’s bad for Wall Street.

这将增长。投资者对他们在索引和不满意的积极管理方面所做的事情感到满意。部分是，这是一系列主动管理基金从未能在很长一段时间内维持了高于平均的回报。

What is your view on the financial services industry’s argument that the DoL’s new fiduciary rule will keep small investors from getting advice?

首先，我不确定它是真的。我认为将发生的事情是小投资者将获得更好的震动。还有巨大的潜力增长，其中一些存在于目前，在投资者的财务自我教育中存在。他们真正需要多少帮助？采摘股票资金 没有这样做;我们知道。小投资者不一定需要大量的教育。如果他们正在进行索引，他们就不会采取资金。他们不是在评估过去的表现。只要他们知道他们的指数基金是低成本的，他们就不必担心成本。他们没有支付任何销售负担。

They’re offered too darn many choices, no question about that. There’s no evidence at all that the large选择数量可以提高您的回报。当你被问到或被别的人被问到时，“我应该使用哪个基金？”[在定义的贡献计划菜单中]，如果您没有说索引基金，您将投注该基金将在延长的一段时间内比市场更好。这恰好是一个可怕的赌注。

美国可以设计一个与社会保障合作的国家退休计划吗？

我认为社会保障和个人储蓄综合计划的想法是一个好主意。这是一个粗略的想法，因为有数千种方法可以做到这一点，但我们当然可以改善整个退休系统。养老基金资金，界定的福利计划资金在其落后的方式。这将是下一个危机。我们必须锐化IRA计划，至少有一种更具强制性的IRA，这是我们也应该与401（k）有关。

如果你能艰难提款，社会保障会是什么样的？仅仅依靠社会保障的3000万个家庭将要从时间开始提款，我们不能拥有它。因此，我们需要重新定义整个系统 - 联邦，界定福利和定义缴费计划的一些整合。我喜欢这个主意。只是不要让我实施它，因为我太老了。