2016年全欧研究团队:比荷卢，第一名:David Tailleur &团队

大卫Tailleur一位长期投资者观察到，他在乌得勒支的荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)团队以“对当地知识的丰富程度令人印象深刻”而自豪。“他们在农产品以及金融机构和保险方面非常强势，尤其是在荷兰。”最近，泰勒的团队一直在关注比荷卢三国之外的一个重大事件:超市行业的合并。荷兰零售巨头皇家阿霍德和比利时竞争对手德尔海兹集团在5月份承认，他们正在讨论合并，到下个月月底，这两家零售商已经确认了合并的意向。荷兰合作银行的研究人员对261亿欧元(291亿美元)的交易持乐观态度，将他们对Ahold的评级从持有提升为买入。由此产生的实体将成为比荷卢三国最大的食品连锁运营商，同时也是美国第五大食品连锁运营商。在美国，阿霍德的Stop & Shop和Giant门店将与Delhaize的Food Lion和Hannaford门店归同一家公司所有。此外，泰勒认为，阿霍德的管理层避免了支付“收购溢价”来产生规模效益。他建议说，合并后的大多数零售商市场的盈利势头已经很积极。他的集团预计，由此产生的Ahold Delhaize公司将给股东带来“成本节约带来的可观现金回报”，并将进一步受益于这家荷兰公司作为在线销售领导者的崛起。“我们特别喜欢阿霍德2016年约8%的自由现金流收益率，”这位42岁的领导人补充说。 The deal is expected to close by July, and the analysts assign Ahold’s stock a target of €23.50. In mid-January it was trading at €19.27. Meantime, they continue to recommend that investors buy Royal BAM Groep, a Netherlands-based construction services provider with significant operations in Belgium, Germany, Ireland and the U.K. Already exceeding expectations amid Europe’s modest recovery, Tailleur explains, the executive team deployed €300 million in working capital last year while reducing costs by €100 million, bolstering the team’s forecast of “double-digit free-cash-flow yield in the 2015–’18 period.” BAM’s shares rocketed 94.9 percent, to €4.60, during the 12 months through mid-January, compared with the European market’s decline of 5.9 percent. Tailleur and his cohorts believe a price of €6.25 is justified in the nearer term, with €8 to €10 possible over the next few years.