这些天孩子们。This year’s class of high school seniors doesn’t remember the 2000 presidential election, the dot-com bust or the terrorist attacks of September 11. They were in elementary school during the late-2000s recession, and their entire adolescence was spent amid the backdrop of zero-bound interest rate policy. (Not that soft monetary policy is the type of thing that tends to make one wax nostalgic for high school, but I digress.) So it makes sense that a student from a central New Jersey high school, when quizzed by CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Liesman on the Fed’s moves in June, would say, “Hold rates steady.”
“你在这里首先在这里听到了，人！”由于preroll被摧毁的财经新闻人格为播出第16届年度国家经济挑战5月23日，由纽约的教育非营利组织经济教育理事会组织，在CNBC期间播出发午餐。This year’s competition featured more than 10,000 students from 44 states. The top four highest-scoring teams in two divisions got an all-expenses-paid, three-day trip to New York. (The CEE invited me to the event, held at Scandinavia House in Manhattan’s Murray Hill neighborhood, out of appreciation for我在线论文一月又代表美国克 - 12经济学教育。) In two-team face-offs, high school students hit the buzzer — occasionally before Liesman read the entire question — to get the chance to answer questions such as “What model measures the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate?” (Answer: the Phillips curve) and “What three index measures does the Federal Reserve monitor when analyzing inflation?” (Answer: the consumer price index, the producer price index and the GDP deflator).
学生的竞争对手在蜂鸣器的第一张戒指中得到了两者。另一方面，关于这些问题的问题可能需要超过15秒的时间来回答：“美联储何时将按按钮上的利率？”
授予，这是一个宽计，好吧，现在几年。由于美联储于5月18日发布了4月份会议的会议记录，政策制定者和市场可能终于有一些值得嗡嗡作响的东西。Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, including James Bullard and William Dudley — who gave one of the NEC competition questions via video — have intimated that the U.S. economy might finally have enough lilt to support a slight interest rate hike as early as the Fed’s meeting in July, rather than in September, as many analysts were expecting.
“如果我相信我自己的预测是有点轨道，那么我觉得夏天的收紧是一个合理的解释，”达德利在5月19日的新闻发布会上说。市场在潜在的徒步旅行中迅速达到价格，美国股票削减了其余的工作周和美国美元对重大货币的影响。美国联邦政府集团的美联储资金期货合约的数字表明，根据最新的美联储，投资者预测艾滋病的差旅机将在6月份徒步旅行30％，而不是几周前的18％。
失业率悬停在5％左右 - 大多数经济学家认为要接近全面就业。最近的工业生产和零售数据一直在抬头。那么等待什么？
对于一个，像美联储州长杰罗姆鲍威尔这样的政策制定者已经注意到恐惧a potential U.K. exit from the European Union那as well as fears over mounting debt in China. Others, including Bullard, have also mentioned the Brexit referendum on June 23 — one week after the next Fed meeting — as a possible concern.
还有本土的通胀问题。3月份排除食品和能源的核心个人消费支出指数为1.6％，从2月份下降1.7％，甚至远离美联储的2％的目标。尽管如此，国内问题不在真空中运行。在3月份公告中，美联储政策制定者将2016年预测降至1.2％，提及中国波动等风险，作为国家德国经济增长的重量。也就是说，由Case Janet Yellen领导的政策鸽子占了上风，普遍存在小心赢得菲利普斯曲线等经济模型。甚至达德利甚至达德利也是FOMC的最鸽派，在美联储不久的将来看到了涨价。
在美联储政策的问题是寻找我f than when. Policymakers have waited to hit the buzzer long enough to come up with an answer. High school econ students need to keep their interest piqued.
Follow Anne Szustek on Twitter at@the59thStBridge。
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