上周的新闻从标准差幕中，它不会降级南非从投资级到垃圾状况的信用评级，在12月份提前引发一系列问题。该公告并非出乎意料，但它确实构成了一个令人抱负的持有人;标准普尔对该国的债务评级进行了负面观点，对南非政策制定者提供了明确的警告，以抵御经济。（惠誉和穆迪也将南非债券评级纳入投资级别。）该决定仅遵守执行，直到12月份，现在是市场和南非国家财政部的重点。从这里到哪里？
S&P’s credit rating is based on an assessment of five factors: institutional, economic, external, fiscal and debt burden, and monetary. Thanks to the strength of the South African Reserve Bank, the monetary assessment remains firmly positive. S&P has noted that potential triggers for a downgrade are lower GDP growth; risk concerning state-owned enterprises, notably, the state airline South African Airways, the roads agency SANRAL and the public power utility Eskom; a reduction in fiscal flexibility; and an increase in external imbalances.
外部恶化是由南非无法影响的因素驱动的，但债务负担和体制问题都在该国的控制范围内。对岸边的承诺这两个领域也会显着受益于经济因素。修订前景稳定的主要触发是南非的结构改革，以“自助”形式：提高业务信心，提高潜在的增长和增加私营部门投资。
去年12月标准普尔表示，它担心产生大债务的进一步财政恶化和国有企业，可以合并到南非政府资产负债表上。令人鼓舞的是，我们在Investec资产管理中看到这两个领域中的任何一个都没有进一步削弱。实际上，财政部长普拉维恩戈邦于二月制作了一项积极的预算，这承担了以前预测以下的支出增长。自2015年5月份同意工资上涨并固定在2017年 - 18财政年度，唯一用于减少赔偿的杠杆是削减公共部门的工作。到目前为止，我们在2016年看到公共部门的工作增长停止，但它需要转让负面。核心风险是，政府不会交付这些削减，并同时由于标记增长而令人失望。
借款费用之前的主要余额预计今年将从赤字转化为盈余。这将是自2008年以来的第一个初级盈余，并发出主要成就。我们只有两个月的数据，但从我们所做的数字来看，财政部正在追踪提供，不提供滑动。
对于标准普尔,长期测量的关键是国家的s growth rate. Since 2009, South Africa’s GDP has grown by an average of 2.4 percent a year. Since the beginning of 2014, however, the rate has fallen to 1.5 percent. The deteriorating growth outlook is the origin of the credit rating problem, with South Africa’s potential output growth rate falling from roughly 4.5 percent in 2013 to around 1.8 percent at present. If growth does not rise in 2016 above the 0.4 percent expected in our analysis, worries about the future ability of South Africa to service its debt beyond 2020–’25 will surface, potentially creating the basis for risks to attract notice in the December assessment.
在过去六到七年中，全球增长期望的持续恶化，国际条件困难。然而，商品超级循环的结束和中国的增长放缓只是问题的一部分;在我们看来，该问题的大部分是家庭的。去年南非货币和借款成本的恶化主要是当地因素引起的，包括令人失望的预算前景和对南非机构实力的担忧。
Following the sharp sell-off after President Jacob祖马的去除Nhlanhla Nenefrom the Finance minister post on December 9, the South African rand and bond yields have rebounded sharply.South Africa still scores ahead of Brazil, China and India on the World Bank’s “Doing Business” ranking, at No. 73overall. South Africa also scores favorably among BRICS countries on factors such as dealing with construction permits, protecting investors and paying taxes. The main area of weakness is in the access to electricity category, in which South Africa scores toward bottom of the list, between Uganda and Niger.
除非恢复信心，否则固定投资，从而潜在的增长将保持低位。然而，总体而言，南非仍然保留了它可以建立的重大制度优势。
Although South Africa has several self-inflicted wounds to further suppress its growth rate, there are a number of steps that, in our view, could bring growth back on track toward 2 percent, a level that would avoid a below-investment-grade rating. Examples are elimination of visa approval hurdles, given a weak currency and healthy growth in tourism; a cleanup of mining legislation; and progress in improving the labor market and state-owned enterprises. To achieve a positive result, we need to see government, business and labor working together on a unified path.
马尔科姆查尔斯is a portfolio manager, and Nazmeera Moola is an economist and strategist; both atInvestec资产管理in Cape Town.
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