A Guide to Financial Risk for CEOs

CEO越来越多地参与企业风险管理

风险已经上升到公司议程的顶级，股东预计股东和其他利益攸关方预计将展示他们如何通过当今风险景观最佳地指导公司以及整体财务目标。

In 2014 for example, a study* of 400 US CEOs noted that the majority of CEOs either lead the discussions on risk planning or have a strong voice in them (89%). Yet, even though risk management is the second-highest concern about the company for CEOs (following financial performance), risk planning is proactively discussed on a regular basis at just 27 percent of organizations.

T.he 2008 financial crisis is a likely culprit for the increased focus on risk. It resulted in增加监管并突出了相关的企业如何成为金融（交易）市场的高度相关性。这使得与极端天气和政治不稳定等多种高度可见的企业风险事件相结合，具有提高风险管理复杂性。

As a result, companies may have become somewhat risk averse, as testified by another CEO survey** – potentially implying a sub-optimal allocation of resources.

T.HrePRACTICAL STEPS FOR A CEO TO ACTIVELY STEER FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT

Risk is typically not a core area of competence for CEOs, unless operating in a financial or energy/commodity based industry. Typically a CEO delegates risk management responsibilities to finance and treasury teams who actively monitor markets and hedge risks where plausible and according to their guidelines. Complete abdication of responsibility is not advisable, however, given that the CEO is also ultimately accountable on risk to the board and the company’s stakeholders. The three steps outlined overleaf can help a CEO build a framework for relevant involvement in financial risk management.

1。寻找财务风险管理措施的背景：了解该行业的风险状况以及同行compare to the company in market-risk terms is a good starting point. In Charts 1 and 2 below, two example Commerzbank proprietary risk measurement grids show how industries compare in their exposure (x-axis) and vulnerability (y-axis) to pensions and emerging markets (EM) risks before and after the financial crisis, respectively. From these it can be noted that Basic Resources, Industrial Goods & Services and Automobiles & Parts industries are placed in the top-right quadrant in both the pensions and emerging markets grids, indicating they are both highly exposed and vulnerable to both these risks.

Exposure in the emerging markets grid for example, is measured by % of Earnings in EM currencies while vulnerability is based on low EBITDA margin, high leverage and high correlation between businesses and EM currencies, interest rates and GDP. Being placed in the top-right quadrant whilst company’s peers reside in the lower- left quadrant would be a clear signal that a CEO needs to closely monitor the company’s EM exposures. On the other hand, being in the top right quadrant as an industry would highlight that this particular risk is very important that peers will likely be monitoring these risks closely too. The same principles apply to the pension grid although exposure and vulnerability are calculated using different metrics.

值得注意的是，自金融危机以来，公司和行业的曝光和脆弱性增加了这两个风险（如黄色（危机前）和橙色（危机之后）彩色圈子）。这主要是由于诸如养老金的情况下较低的折扣率，并在EM的情况下增加了国际化。

图1：新兴市场产业曝光网格

Chart 2: Pensions Industry Exposure Grid

2.为风险管理设置相关关键绩效指标（“KPI”）：It is sensible to set risk and cost objectives using
the same KPIs that the company’s stakeholders use in measuring the company’s performance. It is not as important to measure a risk on its own (for instance, how much interest rates could move) as it is to put this risk in the context of the corporate end-results – e.g. how much earnings could fluctuate as a result of interest rates moving by 50bps. The relevant KPIs may differ from those set for the individual teams under the CEO office (for example, for the CFO or the Group Treasurer) but ultimately all parties should focus on diminishing risk to key metrics. CEO-relevant KPIs will vary by industry and company. But they typically include earnings, return on equity and leverage, which all in different ways can be affected by exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, credit and liquidity spreads as well as commodity and equity prices.

3. Viewing risk as a resource allocation:衡量风险和套期保值成本对KPI的影响：与其他企业范围内的风险相比，金融市场风险的美丽是它更量化，因为大多数金融风险都有价格和价格历史归因于他们。希望在大多数情况下，欧洲公司希望抵消其美元计价的股息货币风险，可以在其中可以立即或三年内销售USD的价格。同样，英国公司可以将养老金负债的敏感性有效地对冲其利率变动。

需要在历史角度和不同的未来情景中评估风险。了解金融市场风险如何影响本公司在以前的市场和公司周期，是一个很好的起点。例如，如果平均收益波动率为12％，货币风险增加了7％ - 其中俄罗斯卢布已经贡献了5％ - 当时俄罗斯货币风险以及对冲的成本显然值得进一步分析。

T.he level of potential risk can be expressed as risk attribution – see Charts 3 and 4 below. They show the measurement of risks to earnings and leverage (as observed from the longest available data-set historically) from various combined business and financial market events.

Chart 3 & 4: Financial risks to corporate earnings and leverage

资料来源：曼德银行

A diversification benefit is also shown. This measures the correlation benefit from a situation where, for example in a booming economy, a company’s earnings increase at the same time as interest rates go up, thereby reducing the negative impact of a rate rise. Taking another example, if earnings from emerging markets were to drop at the same time as energy costs decline, these risks could offset each other. In 2008, the diversification benefit disappeared almost completely for most companies, and almost all risks had an additive impact on companies’ risks.

对冲成本也是风险评估的重要因素。随着市场参与者对未来的风险带来不同的职位，随着市场供求和需求，令人变化的成本是可变的，随着市场参与者对未来的风险带来不同的立场。企业层面风险和成本之间的平衡可以被视为在手头（而不是对冲）之间的差异（而不是对冲），以投资其他操作，例如并购或研发等，可能导致（可能更多）资本未来，弥补来自未预先生风险的损失与对冲和支付溢价。对风险的评估与成本需要同时进行。

在量化风险的背景下在kpi,约略eciating causality (i.e. which events can cause what kind of outcomes) can help the CEO be prepared for future financial events and their impact upon the company. For example, Chart 5 below shows how a pension deficit could be affected by four different market price scenarios. An increase in pension deficit and leverage accordingly, can result from changes in interest rates, cost of credit, inflation and equity prices. Each of these can impact the company in others ways too. For example, as interest rates decline, pension deficit increases whilst cost of financial debt may decrease (depending on the fix-float mix of the company’s debt). It is good for the CEO to be aware what may cause the risk impacts seen in Charts 3 and 4 both in broad corporate and in more detailed market terms.

Chart 5: Development of pension deficit

Source: Euromoney

CONCLUSION:CEOs’ RISK STEERING MECHANISM IN PRACTICE

通过在同行和行业的背景下拥有三个基础 - 将风险推动风险，确保衡量风险和对冲成本的关键指标与公司及其桩持有人有关，并意识到影响和因果关系市场上的市场 - 首席执行官更容易把握金融市场风险的复杂性，并在资源分配方面实现业务的转向。例如，首席执行官可以比较在类似于类似风险中的企业投资组合中的对冲风险的收购范围内花费的资本，或者在相关风险的背景下评估新兴市场国家的收购的可行性成本场景。

通过实施风险转向机制，使用这里概述的三个基本原则，每首席执行官都应该更好地了解金融风险对关键企业指标的影响，这些影响可能来自，这类事件可能导致它们以及这些影响有多大可。同样，首席执行官及其团队可以自信地评估风险是否应落后或外包，并且这样做是多少。

*毕马威首席执行官研究“设定增长课程：首席执行官视角”2014

**KPMG CEO Study “Global CEO Outlook 2015: The growth imperative in a more competitive environment”

For more information, contact公司和投资解决方案在Commerzbank。

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