Energy MLPs May Still Have Life

As oil and natural-gas prices have rebounded, so too have energy master limited partnerships. Some analysts believe the rally has more room to run, especially for midstream and downstream MLPs, most of which survived last year’s rout in reasonable shape, as they are less sensitive to commodity prices.

“I think this is still a relatively attractive entry point for MLPs,” says E. William Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management Group in Philadelphia. High-quality MLPs haven’t risen as much as low-quality ones, meaning the former still have attractive valuations, he says.

Alerian MLP指数已攀升ed 6.1 percent through June 17, following a 38.3 percent plunge last year. Compared with just 1.62 percent for the ten-year Treasury note, the Alerian index yields a whopping 7.55 percent. That hefty yield has helped produce a total return of 10.9 percent for MLPs this year.

去年的MLPS集体骤降代表了压力测试，但“MLPS已经过于另一边，”石说。那些需要资本输送的人通常能够获得它。今年的油价上涨30％和12％的天然气价格增加。在任何情况下，许多人midstream and downstream MLPsare less energy price sensitive than are upstream MLPs. Unlike some energy companies, “no midstream or downstream MLP has filed for Chapter 11 that I know of,” says Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer at Advisors Capital Management, a $1 billion registered investment adviser in Ridgewood, New Jersey.

Midstream MLPs consist mainly of pipeline companies. The good news: There’s plenty of oil and gas still flowing. Among the names that Stone and his colleagues favor are Magellan Midstream Partners, Enterprise Products Partners and EQT Midstream Partners.

石材说，麦哲伦在其资产基础上的地理多样性，较强劲的资产负债表及2016年的平均分布增长预测为10％和2017年的8％。

企业已经证明能够在整个资产基础上获得利润，特别是在天然气部分。尽管能源价格长期下降，但它已经增长了现金流量。

And whereas EQT trades at higher valuation multiples than other MLPs, PNC analysts believe the premium is warranted. They forecast distribution growth of 21 percent this year and 20 percent next year and note that the company has a low debt burden.

Lieberman likes downstream MLPs too, including CrossAmerica Partners, an MLP headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania, that owns gas stations. Historically, gas station owners have been able to charge 15 to 20 cents more for a gallon of gas than they pay for it, regardless of oil prices. The drop of gas prices over the past two years has actually been good for gas station owners, because it has sparked record consumption, Lieberman maintains. CrossAmerica’s dividend is well covered, and unlike many other MLPs, the partnership doesn’t have large capital-spending commitments.

Dan Heckman是一家专门从事美国银行在堪萨斯城，密苏里州美国银行的收入投资的国家投资顾问，最有利于MLP的重点是天然气。他说，与只需两年前的石油钻井平台相比，天然气钻机数量的减少开始三到四年前。他说，利用公用事业公司从煤炭的天然气转换为促进需求。“这应该为带煤线的MLPS设置得很好。”

To be sure, not all investment pros are enthusiastic about MLPs at the moment. “We’re underweight the sector,” saysMartin Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors in New York. Backers have claimed that midstream MLPs are insulated from fluctuation in energy prices, thanks to take-or-pay contracts requiring energy producers to pay pipeline owners regardless of how much product the pipeline takes.

But the ETF benchmarked to the Alerian MLP had an 82.5 percent correlation with oil prices from August 2014 through May 2016, Fridson says. “The idea that pipelines aren’t affected by commodity prices — well, they are if prices are low enough.” A judge ruled in March that bankrupt producer Sabine Oil & Gas Corp. could get out of take-or-pay contracts with Nordheim Eagle Ford Gathering, an affiliate of Cheniere Energy, a Houston-based natural-gas company that in December was the target of an activist shareholder move by Carl Icahn. “Payment guarantees are now in question,” Fridson says.

他在整个MLP部门都没有看跌。他说，MIDSTEM MLP中最强烈的MLPS应该没问题。这将包括从低成本，常规提取区域运输油或气体的那些，而不是高成本的页岩地区。它将包括与最终用户合同的MLP，例如炼油厂或公用事业。弗里森也看到了非能源部门MLP的机会，例如墓地，游乐园和木材。