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过去告诉我们固定收入返回的未来
For clues as to how European, U.K. and U.S. government bond yields may perform, take a look at Japanese government bonds.
由于低债券收益率在固定收入市场上施放了长阴影，投资者正在努力平衡风险，面对债券价格飙升。
It may be instructive to scour Japan’s experience for clues to the fate of today’s extraordinarily low rate environment — and if Japan’s road map is any guide, U.S., U.K. and German yields likely will fall even further than they already have.
What does all of this mean for global fixed-income investors? As they pick their way through an investment universe bloated by increased debt issuance, the advantages of an actively managed approach have been thrown into stark relief.
传统智慧假设下跌必须出现。但它真的吗？
在没有债券投资者的两个敌人，增长和通货膨胀那we expect government bond yields to remain low. In Europe markets have defied expectations that already extremely low government bond yields could not go lower by breaking through the zero rate barrier. As the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program buys more debt than countries are issuing, the resulting negative net supply pipeline has led to an environment in which nearly 40 percent of euro zone government bonds trade with a negative yield.
由于欧洲负面屈服政府债券的普及，国债实际上看起来很有吸引力，这可能会在美国政府债券汇率上作为固定收入投资者寻求收益率。
此外，还有历史证据表明，十年的财政收益率将基于与美联储基金利率的关系来保持锚定。通常，当在联邦储备紧缩循环结束时达到终端速率时，递转产量曲线 - 即十年的财产收益率低于基本率。鉴于我们预期美联储在当前收紧周期中达到2％的终端率的挑战，我们认为十年的财政部不会高于目前的水平。
所以，如果美国和欧洲的政府债券收益率没有上涨，他们可以继续下降吗？我们可以向日本寻找线索。
In an attempt to encourage lending and revive demand after an asset price bubble burst, Japan’s central bank slashed interest rates from 6 percent in 1991 to less than 1 percent in 1995 and eventually to zero in 1999. With some short-lived exceptions, Japanese government bond (JGB) yields have remained at ultralow levels ever since.
许多日本情景似乎类似于美国，u.k.和欧洲的现状，当局努力点燃经济增长，以反对高汇率债务水平的背景。
虽然我们经常将量化宽松作为最近的现象，但日本央行于2001年开创了这一概念，当时它启动了当前账户 - 余额作为增加金融体系流动资金的方法。由于假设下一步率将升高并缺乏收益率将降低速度的能力，因此通常认为低政府债券收益率对固定收入返回产生负面影响。尽管如此，日本的固定收入继续为投资者提供体面的回报：彭博日本主权债券指数在2015年至2015年的五年内提供了2.25％的年度返回。
回顾五年，十年的JGBS产生了0.88％;截至2015年底，产量仅为0.27％。日本银行于1月搬迁到负领土的存款率表明，政府债券收益率可能会降低。虽然绝对术语差不多2％的返回可能不会像投资者那样令人印象深刻，但这些回报领先于通货膨胀，有力地证明了政府债券在低产环境中提供回报的能力。
如果日本是未来的指导，那么我们可以得出结论，美国，U.K.和德国收益率可能会从这里进一步下降，并仍然非常低。
随着当今的低产环境在全球固定收入市场中产生了大量增长，为投资者提供了一个扩大宇宙，提供了更大的多样化，提高产量和更灵活的持续时间概况。债务发行的较大世界带来了机遇和风险，突出了积极管理的投资方法的重要性。
传统的固定收益投资benchmark-basedis clearly no longer fit for purpose. Portfolios once positioned in line with market-cap-weighted indexes can no longer provide sufficient protection against rising rates. Issuers extending the duration of their debt in a low-yield environment will result in an eroded yield cushion, serving to concentrate rather than diversify risk in bond benchmarks. That makes it all the more imperative to invest only in those countries and companies in which investors have strong conviction that they will be repaid, with interest.
Nick Gartside是固定收入的国际首席投资官J.P.摩根资产管理在伦敦。
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