Brexit Is a Vote Against Globalization, Not Just the EU

我记得Dimly想知道，回到1979年的学生日，为什么每个人都在做出如此大惊小怪，就英国总理选举杂货店的女儿。它没有长时间搞清楚。玛格丽特·撒切尔改变了英国政治，声称对U.K.在欧洲和世界阶段的局部作用，并释放了一股以市场为导向的改革 - 私有化，放松管制，自由贸易和资本流动 - 这回调了全球经济。

The decision by British voters to endorse the country’s withdrawal from the European Union is every bit as epochal as the Iron Lady’s victory, but in a very different sense. With its 52-48 vote, Britain has not only turned its back on two generations of closer ties with its European neighbors, it has given a resounding vote of no confidence to globalization. The referendum is an historic turning point for the U.K. The only question is how far the shock waves will spread, and how much of today’s world they will sweep away.

金融辐射是立竿见影的。在早期民意调查中，这一英镑在周四晚上超过1.50美元，提出胜利，在周五恢复到每周五的价格超过1.36美元之前，截至31岁以下的31岁以下（今天早上回落低于1.32美元）。股票在大陆和日本比在U.K.中更加剧烈地下降，而不是在U.，反映了对全球辐射的担忧，相信较弱的英镑将缓冲对英国经济的影响。

由英格兰银行领导的中央银行发誓要提供流动性并充当市场的稳定影响，但风险加剧了今天定义全球经济的货币政策的过度依赖，使其变得脆弱。英国和欧洲银行股票遭受持续零的持续到负利率，在周五被击打。十年美国财政部的产量将截至1.56％，达到1.56％，这表明很少有人认为联邦储备将尽快提高利率。

The conventional wisdom is that Friday’s shakeout was more 1987 than 2008: a financial shock that won’t derail the underlying economy — with the exception of the U.K., which most analysts see headed for recession in the near term. “This is a major shock to the U.K., but a local one,” says Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for the U.K. and Europe atJ.P.摩根资产管理in London. “We don’t think it poses a fundamental threat to the global recovery.”

That said, the global economy remains highly vulnerable. Japan is stagnant, Europe and the U.S. are growing only modestly above stall speed, China remains in slowdown mode and many emerging markets (think Brazil and Nigeria) are suffering from recessions, bad politics and commodity price weakness. The Bank for International Settlements warned Sunday that low productivity growth, high debt levels and a paucity of policy tools with interest rates already at record lows posed a“风险三位一体”for the global economy.

虽然可能具有深刻的经济后果，但Brexit是一个本质的政治事件。休假广告系列致力于担心移民的恐惧，这在去年的净基础上升至333,000辆，远远超过成千上万，总理大卫卡梅伦承诺实现。Boris Johnson，休假竞选领袖和早期最喜欢取代Cameron作为总理，描绘了投票为英国人从遥远和未经联盟的欧盟官僚机构“收回控制”的机会。

几乎没有人在仍然是营地，当然不是卡梅伦，敢于提到布鲁塞尔官僚机构在没有小部分的创造中。在20世纪80年代中期，当欧洲遭受了一场政治和经济停滞的时候，撒切尔们用赫尔穆特·科尔，弗兰托伊斯·米特兰德和雅克分布了普通的原因，以完成欧盟的单一市场。她是一种广泛的愿景，试图通过降低边界来刺激竞争力和鼓励创业活动。1986年的单一欧洲法案阐述了具体措施，并采取了履行集团的四个基本目标的时间表 - 免费移动商品，服务，资本和人员。该行为极大地扩展了使用大多数投票来驾驶数百条规则的变化，以英国人为主的英国人而导致的大部分工作以及莱昂布里坦爵士。该法案是欧洲世界贸易组织在十年后的全球一级的内容：一个全球化的新时代的基石。

Today, globalization lies largely discredited in the countries that had advanced its cause most fervently, the U.K. and the U.S. We take for granted many of its benefits — cheap goods, easy travel, wider job opportunities for those with the right skills and connections — while decrying the increasingly evident costs of stagnant middle-class incomes, large-scale immigration and growing inequality. There is no shortage of populists eager to take advantage of a mounting sense of insecurity, but no one has articulated a clear and positive vision for the future, least of all the Brexit supporters.

Consider Boris Johnson. At his moment of supreme victory just hours after the result came in, the former London mayor did not boldly proclaim an agenda for a post-EU era. Instead, he urged caution and delay. Britain, he said, should not immediately trigger Article 50 of the Union’s governing treaties, which sets a two-year timetable for negotiating withdrawal. It seems EU opponents were very clear on what they wanted to leave but were unprepared for forging their country’s new role in the world.

The danger of unintended consequences, beginning with a potential breakup of the United Kingdom, is great. Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of pro-EU Scotland, has threatened to block U.K. legislation triggering an EU exit or to hold a fresh referendum on Scottish independence so the region can maintain its EU links. The Irish republican party Sinn Fein is called for a referendum on Irish unification, noting that voters in Northern Ireland rejected Brexit. The referendum result has left the U.K.’s two major parties in turmoil. The ruling Conservatives face a months-long battle to decide a successor to Cameron and a negotiating strategy to adopt with the EU, while several pro-EU politicians in the opposition Labour Party have resigned their shadow cabinet posts to protest the flaccid referendum campaign of party leader Jeremy Corbyn. The idea that Great Britain could become little England is not far-fetched.

欧洲碎片的风险同样很大。法国丹麦和荷兰的右翼政党要求他们在退出欧盟的投票，而匈牙利和波兰的领导人要求更大的国家自治权处理移民和其他问题。

In the past, one could have expected the electoral shock to produce a push for closer integration, just as Denmark’s initial rejection of the Maastricht Treaty back in 1992 ended up spurring the bloc on toward launching the euro. Today, however, there is little sign thatAngela Merkelis prepared to push for deeper integration among the euro area’s core members, fearing it could alienate the rest of the bloc and fuel fragmentation. The Franco-German partnership that has led the EU so many times before is inoperative because ofFrançois Hollande政治疲软。梅尔克尔邀请了荷兰德，意大利总理，而不是本周欧盟欧盟峰会会议的双边会议。Matteo Renzi.和欧盟委员会总统唐纳德星期一柏林的晚餐。

As for the U.S., Donald Trump was quick to try to capitalize on Brexit, welcoming the vote at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland on Friday and seeing it as a parallel to his call for taking back control of U.S. borders (seemingly oblivious of the fact that Scots had voted not to leave the EU). No one should underestimate the degree to which the fears that motivated British voters will be present in U.S. voting booths in November. Whether Trump can win anxious voters more than he repels others remains to be seen, but the political mood leaves President Obama’s signature trade deals — the Trans-Pacific Partnership in Asia and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with Europe — hanging by a thread.

Brexit has brought one era to a close without defining a successor. That uncertainty will test politicians, markets and ordinary citizens for some time to come.

Follow Tom Buerkle on Twitter at@tombuerkle.