Brazil’s Economy Is Seeing the Light at the End of the Tunnel

除了几个游泳池外，在阿根廷的JuanMartíndelpotro转向一个不幸的绿色和男性网球银色奖牌，在他的第一轮比赛中陷入了电梯，在他的第一场比赛中陷入困境1 Novak Djokovic。2016年奥运会在里约热内卢走出了几个无缝。然而，只有几周的时间，为世界上最大的展示和预算落后世界上最大的体育展示，情况远远不那么乐观。

In the three months leading up to the end of June, Brazil’s economy had shrunk for the fifth consecutive quarter, heralding its worst recession in decades. Latin America’s largest economy was also grappling with a political crisis, following the removal from office of President Dilma Rousseff to face charges of breaking budget rules, which eventually saw her impeached yesterday. To add insult to injury, the outbreak of the Zika virus looks set to dampen the country’s tourism and hospitality industry, which accounts for about 9 percent of gross domestic product.

但随着奥运会更接近，一些主要的经济指标略有下降 - 或者至少停止恶化 - 筹集恢复增长的前景。为了收紧鲍鱼预算赤字，米歇尔总统米歇尔·斯蒂姆专注于财政纪律，在卢梭的过度支出计划中，旨在旨在呼吁她左倾向的工人党的选民。我们在Investec Asset Management认为，Temer在正确的轨道上。他的政府计划介绍一个支出上限，将在未来几个月内确定。进一步在2017年初将在社会保障，教育和健康方面进行达成的经营改革，我们认为这些将有助于缓慢甚至停止巴西的向下的经济螺旋。

尽管如此,巴西的债务与国内生产总值的比例仍然是一个cause for concern. Rousseff’s government sharply increased gross public debt, to 67.5 percent of GDP by mid-2015, from just over 52 percent a year earlier, by granting ad hoc tax breaks and intervening in the economy. We are remaining vigilant in case the market becomes too sanguine on the fiscal adjustment outlook. In July the three-month implied volatility on the Brazilian real and credit default swap spreads hit their lowest level in a year. Brazilian assets have also led gains globally in 2016, amid speculation that Temer will be able to turn around the country’s economic fortunes. We wonder, however, if the benefits of the reform program will take longer to manifest than the market generally predicts, and whether the economic bump from holding the Olympic Games will be either lasting or material.

我们对Banco Central Do Brasil，Ilan Goldfajn的新总裁印象深刻。他比我们预期的更加抱怨，建立了央行的信誉，改善了其沟通和铺平了政府，以将银行自治形式正式化。他似乎决心在控制下带来通货膨胀。7月，巴西的价格同比增长8.74％。虽然这一速度可能降低了6月份的8.84％，但仍远高于中央银行的4.5％的目标，尽管基本利率为14.25％和严峻的经济收缩。通货膨胀中的大部分粘性都是在幻灯片的背面，在食物的成本和食物的成本上，包括牛奶价格意外的尖峰。

The challenges to cutting inflation have pushed back the interest rate–cutting cycle. We do not believe the central bank will reduce the rate from its current ten-year high until the fourth quarter of this year. Further cuts are likely in the first half of 2017. We expect that the cumulative cut over that period will be about 350 basis points. This magnitude of rate cut seems to be largely priced into short-dated bonds, though we are more constructive on the intermediate maturities of the yield curve, such as five-year paper. We are also positive on real yields. In this global environment, we believe they could fall to the 5 percent range from the present 6 percent.

我们在巴西真实方面仍然恰到好处，尽管这一货币今年的乐观措施飙升了25％，但在乐观方面，Temer可以恢复对变化经济的信心。8月初，Temer告诉国内金融报纸，valoreconômico那that he was worried about the real’s recent appreciation, as it could smother any nascent economic recovery by curtailing exports. Temer said that his government would “look for an equilibrium” in the exchange rate. Goldfajn has said that the bank will cautiously intervene in the foreign exchange market while sticking to a floating exchange rate. We believe that Brazil’s balanced current account and high carry will help Brazil’s policymakers keep the exchange rate stable.

In terms of Brazilian corporate debt, we viewPetrobras鉴于部分国有的石油公司继续维修其财政并通过销售其向外国公司的额外资产销售其深水资产，鉴于部分国有石油公司的持续便宜。此外，鉴于今年铁矿石价格的预期拾取越好，我们还看到了金属和采矿公司谷贷款的机会。最后，牛肉生产者Minerva食品的传播也符合公司多元化的全球收入流的引人注目。

我们在中期巴西谨慎乐观乐观，并具有谦虚的超重，作为对拉丁美洲一般超重倾斜的一部分。我们不相信Temer将能够脱离经济奇迹，但我们确实相信经济处于转折点，并且随着时间的推移逐渐改善。谁知道？也许是Rio奥运会成功的余辉可能会让经济感觉更少的绿色。

Mike Hugman是新兴市场固定收入团队的战略家Investec资产管理在伦敦。

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