The World Needs an Economic Plan B

The U.K. will be living theconsequences of Brexit多年来来。然而，世界其他地区似乎已经搬弄了。这是您在观察到过去几个月的全球股市运动时会绘制的结论。但是，没有逃离全球复苏仍然严重依赖于美国的增长 - 以及中央银行的极端努力。

在选民选择从欧洲联盟夺取国家之后，那里有一种恐惧，即U.K.的麻烦将陷入全球康复。无论政治风险如何，投资者都很快决定为股票和债券，这种震荡实际上是一个双赢。为什么？因为增长不会受到u.k.之外的影响，但中央银行可能会让政策放松，否则是安全的。这解释了为什么许多股市在夏季达到新的高位 - 即使在U.K.

一年前，痴迷是中国。你会记得股票市场在世界各地北方Chinese authorities announced a surprise depreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar。The fear was that a deflating Chinese economy would export its falling prices to the rest of the world, via a lower exchange rate, and take another bite out of growth in emerging markets.

Funnily enough, the Chinese currency has been falling again recently — by slightly more than it did in the summer of 2015. That might in part be because investors believe the world is now in a stronger position to cope with a deflationary China than it was a year ago. Or, there’s another explanation: They simply haven’t been paying attention.

It is true that this recent depreciation by China feels somewhat more controlled. What spooked investors about China last summer was the feeling of chaos. The mixed messages about the currency and the panicky moves to prop up the domestic stock market both had a whiff of panic. If the authorities could not achieve a smooth transition for the exchange rate, how were they going to deliver one for the broader economy?

It feels different this time. China’s authorities now have a plan. The currency is supposedly now linked, not to the dollar but to a broader basket of currencies, as recognized by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. If investors had been paying attention, though, they would have noticed that the authorities only follow the new system when it allows the currency to fall. When the CFETS was rising against the dollar in the first part of the year, the Chinese currency barely rose at all. The net result is that the Chinese currency is nearly 7 percent weaker on a trade-weighted basis than it was at the start of the year.

On the surface, China’s economy does look less scary than it did a year ago. Keep in mind, though, that the authorities are using the same tools to support growth that they have used in the past: public investment and subsidized credit. Fixed-asset investment by state-owned companies grew by more than 20 percent year-over-year during the second quarter of 2016.

Many observers would say that China is not any closer to resolving its structural and financial imbalances than it was a year ago. This latest depreciation also means that the country is still exporting disinflation to the rest of the world via a weaker exchange rate.

美国可能耸耸肩耸耸肩，因为国内价格沉淀了更便宜的中国进口的效果 - 以及最终，工资 - 现在正在作为美国消费者的康复，继续前进。然而，在全球范围内，图片并不是如此强大。The International Monetary Fund’s latest global forecasts show global consumer inflation at just 0.7 percent in 2016. It is striking that the U.S. and the U.K. have the only central banks in the developed world that are expected to achieve inflation at or above their targeted 2 percent by 2017.

在夏季进行了修订和发布的国际货币基金组织预测有用 - 不是因为他们可能是正确的，而是因为他们让我们退回日常经济报告，了解全球增长期望随着时间的推移如何变化。2016年新的国际货币基金组织全球增长预测为3.1％，仅略低于4月预测。This modest dip was taken as more evidence that the negative effects of Brexit are likely to center on the U.K. A year ago, though, the IMF was expecting global growth this year to be 3.8 percent, and growth for the advanced economies to be 2.4 percent. The IMF’s best guess now is for growth of 1.8 percent in those countries — not just in 2016 but in 2017 as well.

The IMF’s forecast for world trade has also been slashed, yet again. We have now had six consecutive years in which world trade has been flat or falling as a share of global GDP.

Trade had been growing faster than world output, especially onward from 1980, as emerging-markets economies became more integrated with the global economy and global supply chains became more complex. That growth could not carry on forever. At the same time, though, these long-term factors cannot explain why world trade should be quite so weak, for quite so long. It’s certainly bad news for emerging-markets economies, which had previously relied heavily on exports to fuel their growth.

如果全球 - 尤其是美国货币政策在2016年令人乐华，那将是新兴世界的好消息，而不是大多数人在年初预期。然而，过去几个月蜂拥而至植入新兴市场资产的投资者应谨慎态度，仅对这些经济体进行长期投注，以应对对美国联邦储备的短期预期。巴西和俄罗斯现在可能已经过去最近期的经济困难。然而，他们和其他新兴市场仍在努力产生强烈的国内需求增长，并且在这些国家的大多数国家的企业盈利的平均增长尚未接受。

None of this suggests that the global recovery is about to grind to halt. In fact, recent data suggest that the U.S. economy is doing a little better than our fears would have led us to expect a few months ago. Also, the euro zone seems to have been less affected by the immediate shock of Brexit than many had predicted.

第一次共识估计显示，欧元区以6月结束的三个月季度的季度增长0.3％。这比一年中的前三个月令人慢的是令人惊讶的强大人物，当然，这些数字将无法捕捉任何Brexit-Pot效应。然而，最近发布的调查和经济情绪数字并没有以响应U.K.投票表现出任何大蹒跚而投票。

That relatively weak prediction for euro zone growth in the second quarter is much less than the region needs to grow out of its reliance on superloose monetary policy and to make serious inroads on unemployment. It also reminds us that the world is expecting an awful lot of the U.S. economy right now, and an awful lot of its central bank.

随着美联储的帮助，美国已经管理了一个可观的恢复，尽管有一个深深的全球经济和美元的无益升起。到目前为止，迹象表明，这种恢复正在做得很好，尽管有功能失调的Cacophony来了美国总统竞选活动。我们都应该持续这样的希望，因为现在世界没有太多的计划B.

Stephanie Flanders是U.K.和欧洲的首席市场战略家J.P.摩根资产管理in London.

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