To view a PDF of the report, click here.
By Ralph Jennings
台湾总统蔡英文自上届任务以来，已停止与中国进行正式谈判，因为选民担心以前的政府更温暖的关系威胁到台湾自治。中国不高兴，因为对话减少了一个旗帜下两国的最终统一的前景，是台北的学者所相信的。但在她的前100天在办公室里，蔡先生地向北京讲话，同时留下了谈判表的遥远，避免了可能会撤销报复的事件。
“这将不会完全安抚中国，但经济报复应始终仍然是可接受的，临时的边界，”法国投资银行Natixis的首席亚太经济学家艾丽西娅加西亚赫拉雷罗说。
在这种政治格局、经济关系ns that began in 1990 with Taiwanese investment on the other side and surged under the previous Taiwan administration for eight years, will be sustained by past agreements--but not necessarily forever, analysts say. Without new political momentum--and given weak spots in China itself--those ties are expected to fray. That fate would hamper trade and investment, a disappointment to expansion-minded firms in China as well as Taiwan’s financial services, hospitality and high-tech giants.
Without continued talks between governments, 21 deals drafted by the two sides under Tsai’s predecessor Ma Ying-jeou—but never signed--could go into an indefinite freeze. One agreement would cut tariffs on potentially thousands of items shipped to China, the outgrowth of an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) reached in 2010. Taiwan’s parliament, controlled by Tsai’s ruling party, also has not ratified a 3-year-old services trade liberalization pact that would accelerate the China business of 144 Taiwanese sectors including tourism and financial services.
Due to the lack of ratification, “No one from Taiwan has a securities joint venture yet,” says Allen Wu, executive vice president of Yuanta Financial Holding Co. in Taipei. “China is our most important market after the U.S. We share culture and language and know each other, which is good for Taiwanese who go to China for business.” Yuanta, with NTD2 trillion (US$63 billion) in total assets and an 11.5 percent share of Taiwan’s brokerage market, has three representative offices in China, where it makes loans to Taiwanese clients at lower interest than charged by mainland Chinese banks.
自2004年自2004年自由贸易自2004年在香港和2012年在台湾，也在台湾，也在北京友好以前的行政管理，加速存款率加速。这允许台湾的银行使人民币贷款对另一边的业务有用。2013年2月的台湾人民币存款率从今年7月达到今年7月截至去年7月份截至今年7月份的总存款的3.7％，达到了4.5％的峰值。。
Chinese tourism to Taiwan affected
服务贸易协议的立法进展也将开放中国旅游服务到台湾投资。相反，台湾大型中档酒店现在从4月到今年7月从中国的集团游客同比下降30％。抵达2015年达到了340万峰的峰值。硕士队在马士政府与中国签订旅游协议后，于2008年开始了。
Authorities in China are issuing fewer travel permits this year, travel agencies in Taipei say, either to show discontent with the Tsai government or because tourists themselves prefer to stay home to save money, fallout from their country’s economic growth slowdown. Two-way flights that rose from occasional charters to 890 per week over the past eight years also may decline as airlines suspend routes to smaller Chinese cities in light of declining tourism, according to local media reports.
“Under current unclear political circumstances between China and Taiwan, we don’t expect cross-Strait flights to have any obvious growth in the near future,” Taiwan-based China Airlines said in a recent statement. The airline operates 140 China-Taiwan weekly and calls itself the largest carrier in that market. However, China Airlines still expect a longer-term increase in passenger loads.
巴克莱在新加坡的经济学家Angela Hsieh表示，中国大陆的旅游业在台湾和香港开始下滑。巴克莱说，2009年6月，中国到台湾的游客占该年6月份的17％至40％，达到了59％至76％。“中国人游客的涌入是对两个领域的服务就业支持的关键支柱，特别是为香港的零售销售，”Hsieh说。“所说，我们认为有令人担忧的是人民流动可能已经达到了尖锐的问题。”
High-end hotels in Taiwan’s capital are looking for more tourists from elsewhere in Asia as bookings from mainland China decline, says Achim Hake, general manager of The Sherwood Taipei, a 343-room luxury hotel. They come from Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and South Korea, he says. The Middle East is forming a “niche market” because of direct flights to Taipei on Emirates Airlines and Turkish Airlines, Hake says.
台湾公司超越中国
China also is fading as a manufacturing hotspot and market for Taiwan’s signature high-tech industry. Taiwan-based Hon Hai Precision, a contract tech assembly giant better known as Foxconn, still assembles Apple goods in China. But it is expanding in Vietnam and Indonesia instead of focusing on new factories in China as it did before 2010. This shift to Southeast Asia reflects rising land and labor costs in China.
The quick rise of Chinese Android smartphone brands such as Oppo, Vibo and Xiaomi also has frustrated the chief Taiwanese smartphone developer HTC-- which has aimed its cheaper devices at Chinese consumers since 2012. HTC’s world market share has plunged from 10.7 percent in 2011 to just 2-3 percent today and U.K.-based market research firm Strategy Analytics says its China market share has fallen from 4.4 percent in 2012 to 0.4 percent in the second quarter of this year. “HTC is unlikely to regrow significant market share in China any time soon due to its limited retail presence, modest brand awareness and a smartphone portfolio that is largely undifferentiated from its Chinese rivals,” says Neil Mawston, Strategy Analytics’ global wireless practice executive director.
China and Taiwan will eventually find a common goal in promoting “smart” medical care devices and “smart energy,” says John Chen, senior industry consultant with Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute, a government-backed tech research firm in Taipei. China’s goal of becoming “more beautiful” can draw on the Taiwan government’s focus on promoting renewable energy development while ambitions in China to improve healthcare may expand the market for Taiwanese medical devices, Chen says. Under Ma, former vice president Vincent Siew had set up the Cross-Strait CEO Summit with committees in charge of tech cooperation and Chen expects the summits to continue under today’s government as long as politics stay out. “Somehow China and Taiwan are heading in the same direction and the Institute believes the potential for cooperation will concentrate on smart medical care...and smart energy in the years to come,” Chen says.
But Taiwan’s $131 billion high-tech economy, about a fifth of GDP, faces a broader threat from improvements in the quality, scale and supply chain in China. Quality of goods such as PCs and smartphones has improved in China, long known as the world’s low-cost producer. Chinese manufacturers have improved after decades of plant inspections by foreign investors and from competition for domestic consumers, economists say. The supply chain also has matured, so Chinese hardware developers can source parts for mass production without looking offshore. Taiwanese trade officials say their tech sector still leads China’s in precision technology and niche devices.
It may not just be tech that eases away from China. In her inauguration speech, Tsai said Taiwan would focus its direct investment policy on Southeast Asia and India to “bid farewell to our past over-reliance on a single market,” a reference to China. Infrastructure in Southeast Asian countries popular with Taiwanese firms has improved, Tsai said before taking office, and those companies have already expanded in that region, so investment risk has declined. About 3,500 Taiwanese firms were investing in Vietnam alone until 2011 as they found costs lower than in China, a Taiwanese chamber of commerce official in Ho Chi Minh City estimates. Taiwan remains among Vietnam’s top five investment sources.
Chinese aim to invest more in Taiwan
中国企业，特别是在科技中，渴望投资台湾以海上成长，因为家庭市场变得太竞争。投资银行瑞银说，中国今年以外中国以外的佣金和收购总额超过1110亿美元，超过2015年5月，超过2015年。例如，主要的固定电话提供商中国电信在五月签署了对待协议，与香港持股的固定行进。
The goal is to grow China Telecom’s “global coverage” by using Hutchison’s “extensive reach and throughout Hutchison’s mobile affiliates,” China Telecom said in a statement. As part of the agreement, mobile network operators and carriers served by both parties can use the IP platforms of either to deliver traffic from 4G data roaming, mobile signaling and Voice-over-IP.
Taiwan appeals to Chinese companies because of the cultural and linguistic similarities, relatively well-off consumers and precision technology expertise. The companies are keen to acquire advanced technology and “established brands” offshore, DBS economist Ma Tieying says, making Taiwan’s precision technology a particular draw.
But because of public concerns about the degree of mainland Chinese investment, she says, Tsai’s administration will probably curb any major deals. “There have been public concerns in Taiwan regarding the rise of Chinese capital, which may cause a technological loss in Taiwan’s corporate sector and importantly, pose threats to national security,” the economist says. The government “can be expected to take a cautious approach on this front,” she adds.
China’s internal worries, such as falling GDP growth and lack of a long-term replacement for manufacturing as the chief economic engine stand to hit Taiwan’s investments as well. Chinese authorities are trying to stimulate consumption and private investment rather than factories, which are finding cheaper production bases in other countries. Taiwanese firms have invested a total of about $100 billion in China versus $1.24 billion the other way. Two-way trade of $115 billion recorded by Taiwan’s Foreign Trade Bureau last year also favors Taiwanese companies with exports 61 percent of that total.
“As China slows, Greater China inevitably faces new economic challenges,” Garcia of Natixis says. She notes despite projections for a longer-term increase in passenger loads, weaker retail sales in Hong Kong and two years of declining casino revenues for next-door Macau, both due to fewer arrivals from China. “Taiwan is not alone,” say Garcia.