Lebanon’s Challenged Economy Keeps Expanding, Against the Odds

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By Patrick Werr

The Middle East’s political and economic storms have continued to batter Lebanon, but despite all the odds, its economy has continued to expand. Growth had been sizzling along at an average 8.5 percent from 2007 to 2010, only to take a major hit when civil war broke out in 2011 in neighboring Syria. In addition to dampening tourism and foreign investment, the war sent 1.5 million refugees into Lebanon, boosting its population by a third and putting tremendous strain on government finances.

叙利亚内战也对经济的直接影响较少。根据世界银行的数据，黎巴嫩经济的主要经济处，黎巴嫩国外工作的汇款在2014年下滑，虽然他们在较上年的占GDP的约15.9％的余量。从战争中的反弹让黎巴嫩的微妙政治平衡和政府采取决定的能力：自2014年5月以来一直没有总统，议会一直处于网格邮政。沙特愤怒对黎巴嫩政府和叙利亚在黎巴嫩的政府和叙利亚在2月份暂停它的每年40亿美元的援助，这已经向黎巴嫩军事和保安服务暂停了40亿美元。

To add to the misery, the United States enacted a law in December that is forcing Lebanese banks to close the accounts of members, affiliates and intermediaries of Hezbollah, a militant group and political party with several deputies in parliament. Hezbollah has strong support among Lebanon’s Shi’ites, who make up more than a quarter of the population, and the US legislation threatens to shake the country’s political balance even further.

Blom Bank董事长和总经理Saad Azhari表示，区域不稳定和国内政治瘫痪减少了投资，出口和资本流量，并对公共财政施加巨大压力。

这导致评级代理惠誉将黎巴嫩的主权信用评级降级。穆迪和标准和穷人都已经给了这个国家一个负面的展望评级。鉴于这种情况，黎巴嫩似乎是可容忍的风化。“自2011年以来，经济一直在不超过2％，”阿扎里说。“但是，经济越来越大的事实也是一项成就，在我们周围的所有负面影响中，都在成就。这就是让我乐观的经济前景 - 它仍然灵活，敏捷，准备抓住机会。该国拥有石油和天然气，金融和旅游等行业的前景。增加到汇款的实力，每年保持稳定约75亿美元。“

据世界银行称，黎巴嫩的GDP在2015年上涨1.5％，部分是由于旅游业的上涨。由于在叙利亚的战争持续的情况下，银行预计将增长增加到2.5％，并在叙利亚的战争继续，如果发生冲突，则更快。

该国增长和稳定的关键和银行业系统的健康是黎巴嫩外籍人士的大汇款流入。但依赖汇款的风险太多了。到目前为止，2014年中期国际油价的崩溃已为黎巴嫩净肯定，使能源进口更便宜。但是，最多三分之二的汇款来到石油生产国工作，担心在某些时候，海湾州的较低石油收入可能会开始进食黎巴嫩汇款之家的能力。

The remittances, which account for more than 17 percent of GDP, have also allowed the government to finance yawning budget deficits for years, resulting in a debt ratio that has mushroomed to around 140 percent of GDP, the third-highest in the Arab world and third highest among all the world’s mid- to large-size economies, just behind Japan and Greece. The remittances are equally crucial for Lebanese banks, which held 56 percent of outstanding treasury bills at the end of April, increasing their deposits and helping them to remain viable with good liquidity and sufficient capital cushions.

Riad Salameh, governor of Lebanon’s central bank, Banque du Liban (BDL), expects bank deposits to increase by 4.5 to 5 percent this year.

黎巴嫩的两个最大的银行，Blom和奥迪通过了区域扩张战略，以使他们的风险多样化，并寻求新的机会。两者都定位自己成为中东的银行能源。

BLOM was one of the early banks to expand into Syria. But when war broke out it cut its exposure there, reducing its loan book from $675 million in 2011 to less than $20 million now. “We surely will expand it once the economy and the overall political situation improves in the future,” Azhari says. “We are not abandoning the Syrian market because we are there for the very long term, and we think it will be a lucrative market once the crisis ends.”

Blom正在考虑在家中扩张，并有目光，以获取汇丰银行的黎巴嫩资产，该资产正在从当地市场退出。

银行奥迪也一直在地区扩大，主要在土耳其和埃及，中东两个人口最多的国家，现在的外国业务现在占其利润的一半以上。八月，它将土耳其子公司内部银行的资本增加十亿土耳其里拉（3.38亿美元），或42％。国际金融公司订阅了1.1亿美元的增加和欧洲银行，用于重建和发展9000万美元，银行奥迪和其他中东投资者休息。该增加将留下银行奥迪，约75％的土耳其银行资本。

“Odeabank is expected to use the proceeds to expand its financing in the real sector, to improve access of SMEs and to make investment in its digital banking channel and technology,” says Bank Audi chief strategist Freddie Baz.

因为奥迪设置它在2012年末,Odeabank交货panded rapidly and is now among Turkey’s ten largest private banks. It has 56 branches in 16 cities with more than 1,500 employees. Bank Audi reported that net profit rose 11.7 percent in the first half of 2016 to $226 million. More than half of its net profit came from its operations outside Lebanon. Baz says that in the medium term Bank Audi intends to explore further regional expansion opportunities, including in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. “Furthermore, we plan to establish a footprint in the United Kingdom through a light structure,” he adds. The central bank is taking all necessary measures to keep the financial sector safe and sound, and is closely monitoring the performance of Lebanese banks in the region, says BDL governor Salameh. It is requiring them to allocate adequate capital and to take necessary provisions ahead of time so that the banking sector can remain immune to any negative fallout from the region’s events.

“黎巴嫩是一个小国，其经济不依赖于自然资源或出口，而是对其人民的出口。我们的生产部门，如我们的行业，拥有良好的潜力;然而，他们对GDP增长没有足够的贡献，“Salameh说。

“The Lebanese economy has been, indeed, performing below its potential. Yet, taking into account the social and political tensions, in addition to regional turmoil, our economy remains resilient.”