Investors rarely welcome the imposition of new taxes, but they’re happy to make an exception for India. On September 8, President Pranab Mukherjee signed theGoods and Services Tax Billafter 16 states, a majority, ratified the legislation this summer.
The GST, a common national tax that will replace a patchwork of central and state government sales and excise levies, is the most significant economic reform achievement ofthe government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The measure promises to simplify and streamline the country’s chaotic tax system and turn a Balkanized economy into a genuine single market, stimulating investment by both Indian companies and foreign investors. By broadening the tax base, many analysts believe, the GST’s revenues will also strengthen India’s public finances over time, which would give theReserve Bank of Indiagreater leeway for lowering interest rates.
“这是一个明确的长期经济积极态度，”华盛顿咨询欧亚西亚集团亚洲分析师Sasha Riser-Kositsky说。全国应用经济研究理事会是一个独立的新德里智库，估计几年前，即GST可以将该国的年增长率提升0.9％至1.7个百分点。这种提升将加强经济，即国际货币基金组织预测今年将扩大7.4％，接下来，世界上任何主要经济率最快。
想象一下，如果将加利福尼亚州的公司运送到纽约的公司不得不在每个州线上停留其卡车，以便检查员可以根据该州的税法评估内容和税费。这是它在印度的工作原理。卡车在无数的队列中闲置，易腐品变坏，时间浪费，以及全国各地的瓶颈。标准终身投资的全球新兴市场股票主任标志文名称，如果在中国内部运输货物需要十个小时，印度的可比旅行可能需要近60个小时。
“The biggest benefit is a substantial step forward toward improvement in the ease of doing business,” says Prashant Khemka, CIO of global emerging markets equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Any gain would be welcome. India currently ranks a lowly 130th out of 189 countries, according to the World Bank’sDoing Business 2016 report. (China ranks 84th; the U.S. is No. 7.) “This is not surprising if you’ve lived in India and suffered through the regulatory complexity,” says Khemka. “A lot of very productive people spend their time resolving tax-related headaches, rather than focusing on growing businesses, increasing productivity or competing in local and export markets.”
“GST全部关于生产力，”纽约的Pinebridge Investments的Multiadset和Manager Select的全球迈克尔凯利说，Michael Kelly说。Part of Kelly’s strategy has been to consider the effects of similar taxes in other developing markets, such as Malaysia, which adopted its own GST in 2015. “Over five years, growth tends to pick up, and inflation tends to drop down,” he says. “That’s music to the ears of an international investor.” Modi has set a target date of April 1, 2017, the start of the next fiscal year, for the tax to go into effect, but Kelly predicts that Indian equities won’t benefit for another year or so, as it takes time for the new regime to spur investment and growth.
政府仍然有很多事情要达到4月目标日期。由金融部长Arun Jaitley和来自印度29个州的财政部长在内的GST理事会必须设定在新系统下适用的税率，同意任何豁免，并为解决不同政府之间的争端制定机制。该系统将拥有标准税率，涵盖大多数商品和服务，降低汇率覆盖基本商品和奢侈品的更高速度。最近的报告表明，标准率可以在16％至20％之间设定。有些州一直迫使比率相对较高，以确保他们在分享税收产生的收入方面不会失败，但捷格利表示，政府将旨在设定收入中立率。与印度当前的国家和中央税率没有容易的比较。但是，新系统将包括扣除某些业务相关费用，这些费用可能让一些公司支付税收的费多税。同时，Infosys正在开发专门的IT系统，以在新政权下处理税收。
议会需要认可任何GST协议，并考虑在11月开始的冬季会议中实现立法，但几乎没有保证迅速批准。最初由印度国家大会导致的政府首次提出了GST，然后是曼莫汉辛格的印度国家大会 - LED政府，它已经采取了Modi的Bharatiya Janata Party近两年来获得税后的税线。
“如果我们在4月的第一个实施，那么这肯定会成为一项市场举办的活动，”伦敦石港投资合作伙伴的新兴市场债务组合经理Kumaran Damodaran说。最大的优势Damodaran看到的是GST清理财政政策的潜力。3月，捷克利展示了议会的预算，旨在将赤字降低到目前的财政年度的3.5％，该财政年度将于去年3月31日结束，从去年31％到3.9％。分析师表示，较窄的赤字可以帮助利息率下降。4月份央行将其政策率降低25个基点，达到6.5％，为期5年。
The GST will go a long way toward facilitating India’s internal trade, which accounts for some 11 percent of gross domestic product, according to the World Bank. It should also bring some of the country’s large, informal economy out into the open, analysts say. “Cash transactions are going to be increasingly difficult in the GST world,” says Standard Life Investments’ Vincent.
Entrepreneurs who run small and medium-size businesses will benefit the most, analysts say. The simplicity of the new tax system will free up time and energy to enable them to grow their operations and become more competitive. Larger companies, which currently pay the bulk of corporate taxes, also stand to gain as the new regime forces more people out of the black economy and broadens the tax base. Everyone stands to win, investors included. “A difficult environment for doing business is the single biggest reason India is not a much bigger economy than it is today,” says Goldman Sachs’ Khemka.