Itaú BBA Is No. 1 on 2016 Latin America Research Team

拉丁美洲可能是一个意外的受益者Brexit.，U.K.计划退出欧洲联盟。许多市场观察员认为，公民投票的令人惊讶的结果可以提示美国联邦储备延迟下一个汇率增加，并为新兴市场求助于低借贷成本的好消息。然而，由于U.K.的决定，该地区不可忽视逃脱，预计对全球经济扩张产生不利影响。

“我们预计Brexit对拉丁美洲的影响有限，因为与U.K.的直接贸易联系是相对较小的，”美国Merrill Lynch银行的拉丁美洲股权研究总监MaurícioFernandes争夺剧烈的威尔群岛。“然而，与拉丁美洲相关的两个间接渠道是外汇和商品渠道，因为Brexit对全球贸易的负面的外部性和保护主义的浪潮可能会对风险厌恶产生影响，这可能导致拉丁美洲较弱货币与美元和较低的商品价格。“

Carlos Constantini，ItaúBBA的SãoPaulo的研究负责人表示，他的经济学家和战略家们认为类似的观点。“我们的宏小组相信U.从欧盟的出口意味着降低全球增长，这往往会影响拉丁美洲，但他们预计由于国外宽松的货币政策而仍然存在于国外，”他报道。“自布雷克特投票的投票以来，拉丁美洲的汇率一直是挥发性的，但没有明确的趋势。Brexit可能会为该地区开辟新的贸易机会。“

“Latin America is not at the epicenter of the shock,” adds Pedro Martins Jr., who oversees Latin American equity research at J.P. Morgan in São Paulo. “Downward growth revisions to the U.K.-euro area are coming through, but the direct impact of those on Latin America should be limited.” His firm stands behind its pre-Brexit forecast of a 0.8 percent regional contraction this year followed by 1.8 percent real gross domestic product growth in 2017.

Of course, the situation is still very volatile, and any number of issues could undermine even the most well-considered projections. Keeping abreast of the latest developments is essential in such an environment, and the firm whose analysts the buy side most relies on is Itaú, which tops亚博赞助欧冠拉丁美洲的拉丁美洲研究团队连续第二年。它捕获了22个位置，少于2015年。

BofA Merrill andJ.P. Morgan，它去年与Itaú共享胜利者的圈子，距离第二名，有21个点。BTG PACTUAL.在第4号重复，18个职位 - 从去年下来 - 而下降Credit Suisseholds steady at No. 5, with 14 positions. Fourteen research providers are represented on this year’s team, including two that did not appear in 2015: Credicorp Capital and Raymond James Argentina.

右侧导航表中的领导人链接提供对全部全部公司列表的访问，而今年的最佳分析师则确定每个调查的25个部门的顶级团队。（请注意：有关第二和第三名，加上竞赛者的船员的信息仅适用于订阅者。）

Constantini,他指导Itaú crew to first place for coverage of Brazil for the fourth time in five years, notes that regional growth figures are being dragged down by recession in its largest economy.

“巴西是明确的表现形式。我们预计今年GDP下降3.5％，因为经济活动仍然很弱，“他说。“然而，改革和较低的利率应允许在明年中适中增长约1％ - 但仍低于该地区的平均水平。”

Peru is the place to be, with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.9 percent this year and next, he adds. “We believe the economy will continue to benefit from mining sector expansion and that private investment will pick up, lifted by greater business confidence and infrastructure spending,” Constantini affirms.

BofA Merrill is even more upbeat on that nation’s prospects, forecasting expansion of 4 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2017 driven by strong mining investment and a market-friendly government, according to Fernandes, who also co-leads (with Rodrigo Villanueva) the No. 2 team in Technology, Media & Telecommunications.

“We like the fundamental story in Peru — it should be the fastest-growing economy in Latin America in 2016 and 2017,” concurs Morgan Stanley’s Guilherme Paiva, captain of the winning crew in Equity Strategy for a fifth year running. “The acceleration in the Peruvian economy is broadening beyond primary sectors. In other words, mid-double-digit growth points in mining are now being met with robust figures in financial intermediation and a smaller drag in construction. Further, the recent increase in domestic confidence should help consolidate a recovery in services and investment.”

The New York–based strategist, who also directs squads that earn runner-up spots for their insights into巴西和阿根廷（随着Cesar Medina），对后者经济体现了建设性的看法。“地方股权市场从2015年的政治变革中受益，2016年的国家风险减少为总统[Mauricio] Macri“Paiva解释说，在国际资本市场中重新插入了这个国家。“展望期待，国内股票的进一步收益将取决于新政府减少财政补贴的能力，从而有助于降低通货膨胀和点燃可持续的经济增长。”

Money managers are excited by the possibilities, reports Itaú’s Ricardo Cavanagh, leader of the team deemed the best at covering Argentina for the fourth time since 2012. “I just came back from a two-week road show throughout the U.S. and Europe and frankly was impressed by the high level of interest in Argentina,” says the Buenos Aires-based analyst, who also manages crews that earn top honors for coverage of Chile and a runner-up spot for North Andean Countries. “Investors are extremely impressed about the political change that is taking place in the country. Many comment that there are very few places in the emerging-markets world with such potential for positive change.”

And Argentina’s markets hold much promise. “During the past few years, equity prices were propelled by sovereign spread compression. We became pickier in 2016, considering the trade largely played out,” Cavanagh explains. “Now looking onto 2017 we believe prices will be driven upward by the expectations of economic growth.”

特别脱颖而出的两个部门。“第一个是银行，”他说。“私人贷款仅占GDP的14％，五年可以翻倍。银行合理资本化，资产质量强大，准备成长。“

第二是能量。“在过去的15年里，电力和天然气关税是人为持续的。他观察到，对电力部门的投资远远低于维持最低质量水平所需的最低质量水平所需的内容。“通过低价，天然气消费飙升 - 冬季人们露出窗户以减少热量！”

Argentina imports 20 to 30 percent of the natural gas it consumes even though it sits on one of the largest unconventional natural gas resources in the world, he notes. “There is a phenomenal potential for investment, growth and rising profit margins,” Cavanagh insists.

在固定收入方面，“主权产量仍然很大，”团队负责人说。“债券在三个月的持续时间内为3％以3％的持续时间，3至10年之间的持续时间为6％至8％。”

Predictability is in high demand in times of economic uncertainty. “Post-Brexit there was a grab for duration in emerging markets, including Latin America. The key driver was a push out of Fed hiking expectations,” observes Dirk Willer, who guides his Citi team from runner-up all the way to first place in Local Markets Strategy. “Even with the renewed stronger data flow out of the U.S., we think that a Fed hike is unlikely before December, keeping duration supported. Latin America is well positioned on the duration front because it is the region that has seen some aggressive hiking cycles, which will have to be unwound.”

Willer和他的同事正在指导客户走向市场宽松可能开始的市场。因此，我们建议在巴西长期债券，在哥伦比亚的长期持续时间，“纽约的策略师表示。“我们继续不喜欢墨西哥。墨西哥比索的额外疲软可能会进入美国选举，这可能会引发更多的徒步旅行。“

根据Domingos Faravina的说法，这可能对墨西哥银行有积极影响，他指导J.P.摩根小队，该阵容首先庆祝第四年的财务/银行和金融/非银行的第二次连续胜利。

“担心某些国家的通胀上升，或其他国家的实际通胀压力 - 通常随着货币贬值的结果 - 与历史平均值相比，拉丁美洲高速的主要驱动因素，”他说。“墨西哥银行在我们看来，较高的利率受益匪浅。”

推荐的名称包括Grupo Finderiero Banorte和Grupo Findingiero SantanderMéxico，即在过去一年中央银行的汇率增加应该支持收入。

In addition, “we recommend investors keep an eye in Brazil, as minor signs of macroeconomic improvement could ease concerns about asset quality and drive shares to outperform,” the São Paulo–based analyst says. “We believe Itaú Unibanco to be a good alternative to benefit from a potential decrease in provisioning levels while not taking excessive capital adequacy risks associated with Basel III implementation.”

由于“近期快速增长潜在伤害资产质量以及哥伦比亚的整体财政状况，因此，由于油价下降，而Maravina注意到，避免包括Bancolombia，因为减少通货膨胀可能会创造净利息收入增长的逆风。

价格上涨和巨大需求促使J.P. Morgan Squad Hearmed由Newcomer Pedro Leduc和Andrea Teixeira掌握，从第二名以粮食和饮料中升起，转向该部门的谨慎态度。

“食品通货膨胀很可能继续接受，因为处理器试图通过商品和外汇推动的更高成本，”帝赛拉肯定了蒂西拉，他还领导了第1队在医疗保健（Joseph Giordano）和第2队在零售业。“对上市食品股的影响因其特定国家的需求条件而异，以及行业细节 - 品牌实力，市场份额，竞争竞争，产品概况。”例如，在巴西，食品价格并未与成本保持速度她说，由于不利的需求方案，因此公司已经面临着近一年的利润率损失。然而，在墨西哥，有足够的需求来吸收更高的价格，但分析师越来越谨慎进入2016年下半年。顶级挑选包括玉米粉和玉米饼制造商的Gruma，以及家禽生产商Industria Bachoco。

“我们敦促投资者避免瓶客，”纽约的领导人增加了。“饮料中的负面主题是含糖饮料的潜在税收，如三年前发生的，并且在集中谈判的10周年之后，可口可乐瓶颈的集中价格增加的风险。”

根据Gregorio Tomassi的说法，另一个行业正在进行变革的是电信，苏珊娜萨拉·萨拉鲁（Susana Salaru）管理ITAúGroupe从亚答队伍中占据了亚军，以回收技术，媒体和电信的顶级点。

Tomassi认为，电信名称是“从最近的盈利能力恢复，”Tomassi相信。他说，近年来，监管一直是增加竞争的重点驾驶员，但“我们相信向前的压力不会那么强大。”移动终止率的监管驱动下降已经影响了墨西哥城的分析师注意事项，通过降低建立在不成比例的大型移动流量股份的竞争障碍。“它还强迫较小的球员重定向商业策略，因为一些传统的特定于特定的服务模式在一夜之间变得无利可图，”Tomassi说，他也监督股票战略和墨西哥中赢得亚军的船员。“在墨西哥，智利，哥伦比亚和秘鲁等国家引入的额外措施消除了传统的收入流，也提高了竞争，包括为新进入者打开门。”

观看股票包括智利的empresa nacional de电信，或entel和telefônicabrasil。

后一件事“已经捕获了大约50％的移动后付费增长份额，同时在溢价上定价计划，我们希望其作为优质数据服务提供商的声誉将被[宽带提供商的支持] Global Village Telecom’s network,” says Salaru, who also works out of Mexico City. “Despite our current neutral recommendation, we believe that Telefônica Brasil could benefit from optionalities that include an eventual update to fixed-line regulations and a more supportive competitive landscape, which could arise from market consolidation.”

Entel “is aiming to grab a sustainable share of the Peruvian mobile market,” Tomassi says. “This bold step outside its home market forced us — analysts and investors — to extend the forecast horizon when developing an opinion on the company’s valuation.”

他补充道，以及更积极的情景范围比更多有机增长阶段更广泛 - 研究人员认为可能会实现 - 尚未定价。“虽然挑战仍然相当大，但投资entel的奖励也可以很高，”他证明。

据桑坦德队的领导者玛利亚卡罗莱纳卡尔尼罗（Maria Carolina Carneiro）的股票购买拉丁美洲电力公司的股票，可以说是同样的关于购买拉丁美洲的股票。“我们看到新的拍卖会合理回报，在下一个宿舍，销售和收购资产 - 在该地区，巴西的卷和价格更好，”圣保罗船长表示。推荐的名称包括发电机AESTietêEnergia（原名CIA。Brasiliana de Energia）和CIA。Energéticade Minas Gerais，两者都总部位于巴西，Argentina的PampaEnergía，电力分配器。她建议，所有三者都应该受益于成本削减的举措以及利率下降。

On the other hand, “we believe some Chilean names like Colbún are more exposed to uncertainty regarding price trends, and we see downward pressure as a result of high competition and lower demand growth,” Carneiro adds. Brazil’s Tractebel Energia “is a good company with a sound balance sheet, but we believe its current valuation implies limited upside.”

2016年拉丁美洲研究团队在450个机构中反映了900多个买边分析师和金钱经理的意见，该机构监督拉丁美洲股票估计为3370亿美元，拉丁美洲债务约3040亿美元。

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