重新排列，尽管速度慢

This year’s torrid rally in U.S.real estate investment trustsis likely to continue in the coming months, though at a slower pace, as fundamentals remain positive in the real estate market, analysts say.

Modest U.S. gross domestic product growth of about 2 percent is “okay for real estate demand, not great,” says Cedrik Lachance, director of U.S. REIT research for Green Street Advisors in Newport Beach, California. “But there has been relatively limited supply over the last seven years. When you combine okay demand with relatively little supply, you end up with fundamentals that are sustainably good.”

He and others expect those positive fundamentals to persist in most property sectors, as long as economic growth remains stable and real estate development doesn’t overheat. Among REIT sectors that analysts favor are industrial, data centers and health care.

根据研究公司Costar集团的介绍，商业房地产的国家空置率下降至16年的低点为6.4％。与此同时，商业房地产供应的增加持续低于10亿平方英尺的七年。租金去年攀升4.1％，自2007年以来最多。

Those strong trends, along with declining interest rates, have helped the FTSE NAREIT U.S. Real Estate index register a total return of 16.35 percent so far this year through July 19, far surpassing the 7.14 percent return for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the 5.52 percent return for the Barclays U.S. aggregate bond index.

“纽约美国世纪投资全球房地产负责人史蒂文·布朗表示，”重型仍然是有吸引力的替代品。“十年国债收益率为1.58％，而富时Nareit指数的收益率为3.78％。

正如e的延续conomy’s seven-year recovery should sustain real estate demand, banks’ conservative real estate–lending policies in the wake of massive losses during the financial crisis should continue to limit supply, analysts say.

Weak economic and financial conditions overseas also support REITs. “As long as global volatility remains at increased levels, investors looking for stability and safety will see value” in U.S. REITs, says Edward Mui, a REIT analyst for Morningstar in Chicago. Negative yields on more than $10 trillion of foreign sovereign debt also make U.S. REITs appealing to global investors.

分析师表示，Reits在估值基础上也看起来很好。David Zonavetch（芝加哥美洲）房地产证券财政证券的共同负责人的历史平均值为净资产价值汇率为1％的净资产价值。他说，休息7至9％的现金流量增长，股息收益率超过3.5％，使其“在目前的环境中非常有吸引力”。美国世纪的棕色预计在未来12个月内将在中期到高单位的返回注册回报。

Industrial REITs in the FTSE NAREIT index have been on a tear, returning 23 percent in the first half of the year. The growth of e-commerce has played a major role, with companies like Amazon.com requiring increased warehouse and distribution space. Online retail sales grew 15 percent last year, to $341.7 billion, according to the Commerce Department. That dollar amount represented 7 percent of total retail sales, and analysts expect that portion to increase further. “Online shopping has greatly increased the demand for industrial space, compared to what the level of overall retail sales would suggest,” Green Street’s Lachance says.

San Francisco–based Prologis, the largest industrial REIT, has calculated that every dollar of online sales requires three times more distribution and warehouse space than a dollar of sales at a brick-and-mortar store. That’s because when a conventional retailer receives shipments of inventory, it’s usually a large amount of goods to a limited number of stores. But Internet sales can involve the delivery of a single package anywhere in the country — and beyond.

数据中心重新获得2016年上半年返回了37.8％的人。这些过于损害电子商务的增长以及云计算爆炸，这涉及组织和消费者支付所喜好运营的数据中心中的服务器字母表，Amazon.com和Microsoft，其中包括巨大的数据存储容量。“我们预计对云和在线服务的需求增加，”布朗说，“这对数据中心Reits是一个好消息。

On the卫生保健side, REITs returned 16.3 percent in the first six months of the year. A growing senior population and an increase in spending on health care generally create a positive backdrop for health care REITs, Mui says. “We’re fans especially of medical office buildings and senior housing.” He likes all three of the major health care REITs: Ventas, HCP and Welltower.

So for income investors seeking a relatively safe way to earn a decent yield, REITs could be the answer.