Six years after Abdulaziz Ibn Saud united most of the Arabian Peninsula and founded the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the country struck oil, in 1938. It proved to be a mixed blessing. Abundant and easily accessible crude reserves helped the nation develop rapidly and enabled the House of Saud to buy the loyalty of its subjects with generous welfare programs and cushy government jobs, but it also left the economy dependent on a single commodity.
过去两年的油价下跌已经暴露在以前只有什么脆弱性。经济已经减缓了近衰退水平，增长预计今年的增长率超过1％，而政府去年持续飙升至创纪录的3670亿美元（980亿美元），或者国内生产总值的15％。随着复苏伊朗弯曲其肌肉和伊斯兰国家在中东和北非威胁不稳定，沙特人会不起经济危机。
Now the government is making its boldest attempt ever to wean the kingdom off hydrocarbons. In April,副皇冠王子穆罕默德·宾萨克曼揭开了一个雄心勃勃的计划，称为愿景2030，削减政府支出，吸引外国和国内投资，将岩土化转变为多元化的私营部门驱动的经济体。倡议的核心是私有化沙特阿拉伯石油公司的5％股权，被称为沙特阿美公司，穆罕默德·普查希望将收取约1000亿美元。
利雅得的改革记录是差点，提高了穆罕默德王子可以实现他的愿景的疑虑。经过多年的探讨开放其资本市场，政府允许外国投资者去年直接购买塔德瓦尔的股票，因为基金经理的限制和对经济的担忧，才能获得最佳投资者的不受欢迎的反应。
A separate initiative to build four massive new economic cities, modeled on the rise of Dubai, has been slow to get off the ground because of budget cuts and lack of investor interest.
然而艾略特·赫托夫，伦敦的政策和研究负责人State Street Global Advisors“官方机构集团”，这次认为是不同的。“技术专家技能开始展示，因此政策辩论的质量更好，”Hentov说。“你可以质疑一些愿景的问题2030，但这是一个明显更复杂的政策方法。”
可以说，乐观的最佳理由是沙特人发现自己的困境。在过去的40年里，人口已经四倍，估计了3150万人，其中一半超过25岁。该人口统计可能是增长或社交粉末的发动机。Vision 2030旨在创造600万新工作，主要是私营部门，吸收新兴劳动力。沙特人传统上令人垂涎的公共部门工作 - 婚姻潜力的地位符号和决定因素 - 但那些很难随着低石油收入维持。
人们在愿景中股票2030的其他原因是该计划享有不确定的皇家支持。穆罕默德王子自从他的父亲王子萨尔曼·本·阿卜杜勒拉齐兹·安德拉兹·安德拉兹·阿布拉兹·阿布拉兹·阿兹·安德拉兹·阿布扎兹·阿布拉兹·阿德·阿布拉兹·斯坦克一切，“这位31岁的孩子拥有比皇冠穆罕默德·宾·纳耶夫，他的叔叔和第二次归功于王位，监督国防部和经济部门。勇敢的皇室并没有害怕弯曲他的肌肉。去年，他命令沙特军队在与Houthi Rebels的内战中介入邻近也门的政府。
To keep its economy afloat, the government has already siphoned more than $100 billion from reserves at theSaudi Arabian Monetary Agency为了支持预算，借入了1566亿瑞亚尔斯，在国内开始筹备筹备，这是一项最初的国际债券问题，这笔交易量超过10亿美元可能会在10月份赛中举行。当局还削减了补贴并起草了计划在2018年征收该国的第一个增值税。但这些是旨在减少赤字的停止措施，而不是增长战略。
穆罕默德王子的计划旨在将政府的非石油收入增加了2030年，达到1万亿riyals。（石油和天然气现已产生80％的国家收入。）它还旨在将私营部门的GDP份额从40％提升到65％，并将外国直接投资增加到5.7％的5.7％的人GDP的5.7％。妇女将占劳动力的30％，同比增长22％。
该计划的更雄心勃勃的目标之一是通过开设国家边界的穆斯林以朝圣者致敬的穆斯林和麦地那的穆斯林来吸引旅游业并吸引五次游客。
该计划还旨在生成new revenue by transforming an obscure state holding company, the Public Investment Fund, into a global investing powerhouse. PIF has focused largely on making domestic business loans since its creation in 1971, but the government intends to transfer to the fund its ownership of Saudi Aramco, which it contends is the world’s most valuable company.
Prince Mohammed’s plan to raise $100 billion in 2017 by floating up to 5 percent of Saudi Aramco would value the company at some $2 trillion. Many investors cast doubt on that valuation. Aramco has 18 times the oil reserves of ExxonMobil, the world’s most valuable oil company with a market capitalization of $362 billion, and pumped more than four times as much crude last year, at 10.2 million barrels a day, but it’s not clear that the company can generate the kind of returns that would earn it a lofty rating from investors. It does not publish any financial figures in its annual report. “We get a lot of questions on what we think Aramco is worth,” saysHedi Ben Mlouka, a Dubai-based emerging and frontier markets manager at Duet Group, a $5.1 billion London investment firm. “Nobody knows precisely; not even they do yet. It’s a very complex structure with a lot of businesses. It’s not just one company that is pumping oil and exporting it.”
穆罕默德王子的计划建议沙特人正在寻求模拟PIFTemasek, the sovereign fund Singapore has used to clean up its state-owned enterprises and channel profits into strategic industry sectors, says Edwin Truman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. An IPO of Saudi Aramco will require a level of transparency from the company and the government that has never been seen in Saudi politics, though, he cautions. “There will have to be a change in mindset in the people overseeing the entity,” says Truman. “They’ll have to be more accepting of a more formal and transparent structure, and that requires a cultural shift.”
PIF一直在重组，在很大程度上摆脱了公众眼睛，在yasiral rumayyan的领导下，当地投资银行沙特弗兰省首席执行官沙特·弗兰迪首席执行官，穆罕默德王子委任为其董事总经理。8月，Al Rumayyan加入了沙特阿美公司的董事会。
To help diversify the economy, PIF will try to generate investment income from other sectors. In June the fund grabbed headlines by making a $3.5 billion investment inUber Technologies. Although the San Francisco–based company’s ride-service app is popular in Saudi Arabia — especially among women, who are banned from driving — bankers see the purchase as a statement of intent to attract deal flow.
Meanwhile, some investors aren’t waiting on Vision 2030 to increase their exposure to the kingdom. They are being encouraged by the government, which next month will open the market wider by letting institutions with as little as $1 billion in assets buy stocks directly on the Tadawul, down from $5 billion currently.
“有些方法可以在沙特赚很多钱，但刚刚走过沙特市场是不够的，”本Mlouka说。Duet一直在该国投资七年，目前在那里分配了大约15％的投资组合。本Mlouka是沙特零售公司的粉丝，但由于政府的紧缩措施，他削减了对该部门的敞口。蝌蚪全股指数今年跌幅为12.9％。
Others remain optimistic on consumer plays. In May, Dubai-based private equity shopFAJR Capital.bought Cravia Group, a Dubai outfit that operates fast food franchises such as Cinnabon, Seattle’s Best Coffee and Five Guys in the Middle East and North Africa, and is looking to expand its presence in Saudi Arabia. “Our newly opened Five Guys store in Khobar broke the record for the highest opening-day sales in the burger chain’s global network — beating stores in London, Paris and New York,” says Iqbal Khan, Fajr’s CEO. “There’s consumption taking place despite talk of the downturn.”
私立教育可能是改革的胜利者。由于海湾的大多数居民是外籍人士，该区域具有强大的私立教育遗产。现在，由于预算更严格，往往将儿童送到高等教育的沙特人越来越越来越多地派出自己的后院学校。
医疗保健行业也有望增长。最近政府为外籍人士提供了健康保险保险，并提出了一个对沙特人做同样的建议。“保险的人池将急剧增加，通常私人医疗保健提供者受益于此，”Duet的Ben Mlouka说。在他投资组合的五家沙特公司中，两家在医疗保健部门，两个是健康保险公司。
最后，房地产投资者应该出现新的机会。大约45％的沙特家庭今天拥有家园，政府将提高到2020年的52％。为了解决房屋短缺，监管机构正在建立框架，以便房地产投资信托对交易所进行交易，使外国人能够轻松地给予外国人访问沙特住房市场的方式。
It’s a long way to 2030, but Fajr’s Khan is bullish about the potential the reform program offers to investors: “I think this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to benefit from the structural reforms that are taking place by making some successful and meaningful investments in Saudi Arabia.”
Follow Jess Delaney on Twitter at@jdelaney_NYC.