全美研究团队名人堂欢迎弗兰çois Trahan

Françoistrahan.knows numbers: Raised in Canada, the son of a father with a mathematics Ph.D. and a mother who was an accountant, math came easily to him. Trahan studied economics and econometrics at the University of Montreal and immersed himself in the mysteries of the business cycle at BCA Research in Montreal before heading to New York. This year Cornerstone Macro’s Trahan, 47, enters the All-America Research Team Hall of Fame after winning No. 1 in Portfolio Strategy for ten of the past 11 years. (He has also appeared on the team for Quantitative Strategy.) Despite his success, Trahan now recognizes the limitations of trying to quantify economic and market processes. “If I could have done it again, I would have wanted to know more about history and psychology — behavioral finance,” he says. “If you think about it, in every asset bubble the world has ever seen, the commonality is human beings and how people react to greed and irrationality. It’s not just numbers.”

随着他的无耻眼镜和悄然精确的言论，这只是一丝加拿大口音，Trahan出现了无情的理性男人的缩影。但他的职业生涯塑造了经验，陈述，努力，以及许多同事的努力。BCA是一种形成性步骤。“现实是，学术界并没有真正争取对宏观的理解，因为它涉及金融市场，所以BCA是一个很棒的经历，”他说。“我在那里工作时有三名老板;其中两位是我的基石的客户，并将第三头来到加拿大银行 - 加拿大的珍妮特Yellen，斯蒂芬波利。“

对于Trahan，纽约意味着在市场上深沉。他在贝尔斯德斯Cos度过了四年。作为首席投资策略家 - 他于2004年首次出现了研究队，同时在2007年初在2007年初留下，在该公司在次级抵押贷款危机中崩溃之前。他跳到了国际战略和投资集团（ISI），一家研究店经营艾德曼, an All-America Research Team Hall of Famer who was No. 1 in Economics for 35 consecutive years, to serve as an investment strategist for what he calls the best macro team on Wall Street. In 2010 he left to partner with former Bear colleague Edward Wolfe at Wolfe Research (then Wolfe Trahan & Co.), and in 2013 he co-founded Cornerstone Macro withNancy Lazar(who in 2015 broke Hyman’s first-team streak), Andy Laperriere and Roberto Perli.

By then Trahan had begun to think more seriously about the end of the Great Moderation — that 40-year period defined by relatively moderate booms and busts. As the investment world struggled to negotiate the volatility and disruption of the postcrisis years, Trahan increasingly began to write and talk about a new era in which many of the old rules, reinforced by the Great Moderation, no longer applied. In 2011 he wrote, with Katherine Krantz,The Era of Uncertainty: Global Investment Strategies for Inflation, Deflation, and the Middle Ground。“The end of the Great Moderation led to an era of boom and bust,” Trahan said in a 2014 interview. “It will completely change the investment process. Everything you’ve learned about investing is going to fail.” In a recent e-mail to亚博赞助欧冠他宣称，“过去不再是未来最好的蓝图。”

Trahan不是Permabear。虽然他在次贷危机前做了关于住房问题的警告，但他的一些最着名的电话是为了留下来投资，甚至现在他断言股票市场将在2016年底完成罚款。

在他的职业生涯中，Trahan已经设法与其中一些最伟大的思想合作，在广阔的市场和经济中称为宏观的经济。特别是，当他第一次去那里时，他赞扬了在Isi存在的大学氛围。后来，他承认，该公司增长了更大，并将其重点从宏观转移到基本分析 - 他离开的一个因素。ISI于2014年与Evercore合并，但旧ISI仍然是理想的高级研究公司的Trahan的Troogstone。“我认为我们的52名员工中有29名在基石在Isi度过了一部分的一部分，”他说。“基本上，我们创造了像伊迪的东西。”作为基石的管理合作伙伴，Trahan承认日常管理需要时间和精力，但他很快就借助他的团队，让他管理和继续他的获胜研究。“到目前为止，这么好，”他说。

艾德曼， Evercore ISI	36	Dennis Leibowitz, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp.	25	Stephen Girsky, 摩根士丹利	23	杰罗姆Gitt， Merrill Lynch	22
Michael Armellino, Goldman, Sachs & Co.	21	乔尔价格 Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp.	20	杰克萨尔茨曼， Goldman, Sachs & Co.	20	Joseph Ellis， Goldman, Sachs & Co.	19
Mark Schoenebaum, Evercore ISI	18	Richard Sherlund, 高盛＆Co.	17	George Staphos, 美国银行Merrill Lynch	17	威廉杨， Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp.	17
罗伯特法尔， Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith	16	Patricia McConnell, Bear, Stearns & Co.	16	大卫罗索， Evercore ISI	16	Kenneth Abramowitz, 伯恩斯坦	15
Robert Cornell, 雷曼兄弟兄弟	15	Emanuel Goldman, 潘恩韦伯	15	A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, 伯恩斯坦	15	Meredith Adler, 巴克莱	14
Jessica Reif Cohen, Merrill Lynch	14	Ehud Gelblum 摩根士丹利	14	托马斯·汉利， UBS Securities	14	杰里格罗罗茨， Merrill Lynch	14
Andrew Lazar, 巴克莱	14	李塞勒， Bear, Stearns & Co.	14	Andrew Steinerman, J.P. Morgan	14	Steven Fleishman, Wolfe Research	13
巴里好， 摩根士丹利	13	杰弗里克莱恩， Kidder, Peabody & Co.	13	Michael Weinstein, J.P. Morgan	13	David Adelman， 摩根士丹利	12
Harvey Heinbach, Merrill Lynch	12	约翰·赫琳贡， Credit Suisse First Boston	12	科特拉尼尔， Credit Suisse First Boston	12	Steven Milunovich， Merrill Lynch	12
John Tumazos， Prudential Equity Group	12	Gary Yablon, Credit Suisse First Boston	12	Ivy Zelman, Zelman＆Associates.	12	Joseph Bellace， Merrill Lynch	11
Jeffrey deGraaf, 文艺复兴宏观研究	11	Elaine Garzarelli， 雷曼兄弟兄弟	11	Jonathan Goldfarb， Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith	11	Joseph Greff, J.P. Morgan	11
B.亚历山大亨德森, 花旗集团(Citigroup) /所罗门 Smith Barney	11	杰伊·梅特策， Goldman, Sachs & Co.	11	约翰罗斯， Schroder Wertheim＆Co.	11	杰弗里·斯普圭， 花旗	11
Cai von Rumohr, Cowen and Co.	11	理查德伯尔尼斯坦， Merrill Lynch	10	欧内斯特刘， Goldman, Sachs & Co.	10	约翰麦林， 摩根士丹利	10
J. Kendrick Noble Jr.， 潘恩韦伯 Mitchell Hutchins.	10	Katharine Plourde, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp.	10	William Siedenburg, 史密斯巴尼，哈里斯奥普姆＆Co。	10	Françoistrahan., Cornerstone Macro	10
哈罗德Vogel， Merrill Lynch	10