Core Values, Polar Views of China’s Foreign Investor Channels

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By Eric Johnson

It may be too simplistic to use the “bull and bear” analogy to describe the complex international sentiments toward the main channels through which non-Chinese institutions are accessing China’s US$6.5 trillion equities market.

然而，最近的投资者活动指出了合格的外国机构投资者（QFII）和人民币合格的外国机构投资者（RQFII）方案的相反方法，截至7月1日给予了数百家公司，以便投入1570亿美元。亚博赞助欧冠

Each approach – one cautious, the other brimming with enthusiasm – reflects a mutual confirmation of the intrinsic value of Chinese equities, fixed-income products and, increasingly, bonds in a huge investment arena that’s still labeled “emerging” and yet is very much in the global market forefront, given China’s clout as the world’s second-largest economy with a securities market boasting the world’s second-largest market capitalization.

No doubt most of the programs’ participating investors would agree with Rodney Comegys, Asia Pacific head of investments for Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd., who attributes his firm’s recent decision to join RQFII for the first time to the importance of China as “one of the world’s key emerging economies.” Regulators awarded the firm a US$4.5 billion investment quota in January.

“我们参与该计划的支持得到支持，即股票可以在更多公司之间提供传播风险的多样化好处，因此将为投资者提供重大价值，其中包括个人长期，”Comegys告诉机构投资者。

外国投资流入计划是2月和6月宣布的一系列金融市场改革措施的核心，其中QFII参与者的投资上限为50亿美元，从以前的10亿美元和6月份提高了50亿美元granting of a roughly US$38 billion RQFII quota to U.S. firms that hold Chinese currency.

看号角
What could be called a bear-like investor response to RQFII and QFII is in fact a bow to the yellow lights flashing as China’s economy continues a seven-year-old, government-managed deceleration, the market digests a recent decision by stock indexer MSCI to delay inclusion of China’s A shares in the firm’s Emerging Markets Index, and the investment community recovers from sell-offs that rocked the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in June and August, 2015, as well as last January.

投资者in the cautious camp also appear to be giving the Chinese government more time to advance a financial markets liberalization campaign that, according to some analysts, eventually may fully open China’s equity and bond environment to overseas investors.

The liberalization effort is working hand-in-glove with internationalization of the yuan, also called the renminbi, which last year was accepted into the elite club of Special Drawing Right currencies alongside the U.S. dollar, euro, yen and pound maintained by the International Monetary Fund.

QFII和RQFII监督员（安全）的投资公司申请和新的RQFII配额的投资公司申请和新的RQFII配额的奖项是最重要的一项谨慎的显着放缓。2016年上半年仅颁发了14项新配额，而2015年全年61人则为61，截至7月1日将总配额水平带到760亿美元。

Among the most recent qualifiers were PIMCO Asia Pte Ltd., which secured a quota of US$270 million; CF Financial Markets (UK) Ltd., which got permission to invest up to US$150 million; and AXA Investment Managers Paris, awarded a US$510 million quota.

同时，在QFII方面，2016年前六个月的36个新配额反映了比2015年的计划参与的一条快速节奏，当时安全批准的65家公司的配额。完全配额现已推出810亿美元，从2014年初的500亿美元起。

But an increase in quota awards is nothing new, as the field has been growing wider every year, jumping to last year’s level from 56 in 2014 and 36 quotas in 2013. Moreover, many of the latest quotas were new awards for long-time participants such as divisions of UBS, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley. Hong Kong-domiciled mainland asset managers such as E Fund Management (Hong Kong), China Asset Management (Hong Kong) and Bosera Asset Management (International) Co. Ltd. also upped their quotas.

Ten of this year’s first-half quotas were handed out on the last day of the second quarter, including a US$1.29 billion award for UBS AG, a US$338 million quota for Morgan Stanley Investment, a US$650 million investment level for Merrill Lynch International and a US$350 million quota for KB Asset Management Co. Ltd.

有点看跌情绪也反映了中国金融市场的更广泛的开放。自2013年以来，作为政府金融市场自由化的一部分，QFII和RQFII计划已被另一扇门与称为上海 - 香港股票联系计划的另一扇门相辅相成，这让非中国交易于上海证券交易所内地人扮演香港证券交易所。

连接计划的“净买”每日A股投资限额为19.5亿美元 - 理论上可能已经通过QFII或RQFII进入中国的资金，如果不是连接计划。合格的内地人每天都可以在港股投资15.8亿美元。

斗篷
所以谁对QFII和RQFII看涨了？在这家营地内包括在2007年和2015 - 2016年中国股市最严重的股票上，许多资产管理人员是一年的资产管理人员，其中许多人呼吸了中国股市最糟糕的股票。QFII于2003年推出和2011年的RQFII。

在截至6月29日通过RQFII授予的168条配额，只有一个 - CIFM资产管理（香港）有限公司，允许投资12200万美元 - 自该计划的成立以来一直存在。但是自2010年以来，273个配额中有20个的公司已经参加了QFII。

自2004年以来，加拿大的大华证券资本市场和电力公司每次都有5000万美元的配额，而2006年以来，该公司的野村证券有限公司和高盛股份有限公司已被允许投资3.5亿美元分别为3亿美元。

The two-thumbs-up for QFII-RQFII crowd also includes many asset managers who’ve applauded the government’s gradual relaxing of foreign investor access restrictions. Their patience was rewarded with several major reform steps in the first half of this year.

“QFII-RQFII计划在过去几个月里有意义的调整”这使得计划“更方便和有吸引力”，Citic Securities Co的​​QFII / RQFII业务负责人（Jiachun）Chen表示。有限公司，通过子公司持有210万美元的RQFII配额。该公司还通过香港联盟公司拥有3亿美元的QFII配额。

“我个人希望政府继续改革和改进QFII-RQFII计划作为中国资本市场开放过程的重要组成部分，”陈说。

QFII was initially crafted as a foreigner-friendly way to enhance the A shares market without forsaking the Chinese government’s tight foreign currency exchange controls. Participants include asset managers, insurance companies, banks and pension funds. Each participant designates a Chinese custodian bank to handle its securities business and works with Chinese brokers as well as foreign and-or Chinese advisers.

RQFII的作用是绰号“小QFII”的仅限于遣返离岸人民币回到内地并进入投资目标，这为大部分都是股票。该计划最初为港币提供的回家，后来向其他国家扩大到与新加坡，韩国，法国，德国和英国等人民币。

The United States joined the yuan clearing club in June and was subsequently granted a 250 billion yuan (roughly US$38 billion) RQFII quota, thus giving U.S. firms a means to invest Chinese currency on the mainland. Under the agreement signed by China’s central bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, the United States will become the second-largest RQFII base after Hong Kong. China also agreed to designate yuan clearing banks in the United States.

The U.S.-China agreement came on the heels of deep adjustments to the QFII-RQFII schemes in order to facilitate the gradual, now 12-year-old process of opening China’s financial markets, as well as the Beijing government’s ongoing push to elevate the yuan to the status of a truly global currency.

在2月份的监管机构在安全的资金流动限制，监管机构向QFII参与者担任安全锁定期，以常用的外国投资者对中国的金钱流动限制进行诉讼，削减了三个月的QFII参与者的强制性锁定期。前一期是一年。

安全还宣布，它将“不再界定单个机构的投资配额的统一上限，并与其资产或管理资产的规模成比例分配投资配额（基本配额）。”

Ongoing Reform
但大多数资产管理人员都从中国的改革中更多。MSCI等机构也间接鼓励中国加快自由化。实际上，MSCI考虑了一个不可接受的限制性投资者环境是中国未能赢得新兴市场指数的地方的主要原因，令人沮丧的政府官员将被游涉公司的证券公司。

Many foreign asset managers can’t wait for the day when regulators ease a rule that prevents a QFII participant from moving more than 20 percent of its assets out of China in a single month. SAFE’s February announcement emphasized that this rule, as well as a requirement that all money be moved in “batches or installments,” remains in force.

基于上海的中国市场咨询Z-Ben Advisors的分析师Neil Flynn表示，他预计中国监管机构继续调整“推动MSCI包容并鼓励外汇（外汇）流入......”

如果您查看最近的入境进入改革，中国正在走向配额，限制轻微的环境，“Flynn说，据最近对银行间债券市场和深圳香港股票推出的预期推出的例子连接计划以建立上海香港计划的成功。政府表示，该计划于今年推出深圳市港联系，可能是第三季度迟到。未来的联系计划可以将新加坡股市链接到大陆交易所。

今年2月,中央银行nnounced the lifting of all investment limits by foreign central banks and similar institutions participating in the Chinese interbank foreign exchange and bond markets, thus offering no-quota access to interbank bonds. The only stipulation is that foreign banks and institutions register every investment; interbank foreign exchange market deals are registered with the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, and bond investments are tallied by the central bank.

“China encouraged institutional investors to invest in its interbank bond market as a means of financial opening up,” according to a Shenzhen Stock Exchange statement. The central bank “PBOC will introduce more QFII (participants) to the interbank bond market with streamlined regulations and no quota restrictions.”

While large-cap, A share equities are currently the chief target for most QFII and RQFII investors, government reforms could generate more interest in the bond market in the months and years to come.

近年来中国公司曾在债务问题上加强了债券问题，以管理债务而不诉诸股票市场上的筹款。债券也受到地方政府的欢迎，近年来，由于国家的房地产市场疲软，我们试图通过向开发商销售土地来筹集资金。

At the same time, though, the widening of access channels such as the Shanghai- and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock market schemes, together with the lingering gap between what foreign investors want and regulators are willing to give has raised questions among bulls and bears alike.

Flynn表示，他的问题是“QFII和RQFII的长期活力在他们当前的状态下，”在他看来“他们需要适应或死亡”。

然而，中国监管机构对“限制性环境的未来调整比立即逐步，”Flynn说。“我们的长期观点是，QFII和RQFII之间的选择与未来的机构投资者之间无关紧要，因为哪些方案将成为”后台处理的技术性，使投资组合管理人员可以自由地进行中国，不受限亚博赞助欧冠制通过配额。“

Vanguard的Comegys指出，对于中国和“所有新兴市场，贸易访问可以随着时间的推移而变化。目前，我们还可以通过其他课程（如上海 - 香港）股票连接等股份获得股票。“

Clearly, there’s no definitive consensus about a future path for QFII and RQFII. Market forecasting in emerging China has never been an exact science, of course, as even the most reasonable predictions can be blown away by a flash of volatility – a fact underscored by dramatic stock market selloffs over the past year.

But unlike other major economies, every China market forecaster starts from the same reference point. That’s because every prediction must in some way revolve around the directives and official comments expressed by the nation’s financial system gatekeepers at SAFE, the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and similar agencies.

引发了吸引预测的最新评论之一是安全管理员潘公兵，他作为中央银行的副省长，同时在3月与Blackstone Group LP总裁Hamilton“Tony”詹姆斯和欧洲尼机构投资者CEO Andrew Rashbass的议长。亚博赞助欧冠

根据泛评论的官方摘要，中国“不会因为之前的资本控制而诉诸”，但将重点关注“风险预防”和“大力推广贸易和投资促进”。

“展望未来，”潘说，“中国将重点推进结构改革，特别是供应方结构改革，更好地平衡经济增长，结构调整和防范风险。”目标将是“可持续和稳定的经济发展”。

虽然潘没有提及投资流入，但他的卓越总理李克强告诉6月27日的经济论坛，政府将“向外国企业提供更多的投资机会，并培养更公平，更透明和可预测的投资环境。”

在天津的一年一度的夏季达沃斯论坛上发言，李先生“深化金融体系改革，加快了现代金融监管制度的改善，提高了金融服务效率支持真实经济。”总理还呼吁世界各大经济体“坚定地推进贸易和投资自由化和促进”，以“建立更公平，更公平和开放的国际经济体制”。

“我个人希望政府继续改革和改善QFII-RQFII计划作为中国资本市场开放过程的重要组成部分。”
Fred (Jiachun) Chen, executive director and head of QFII/RQFII Business, CITIC Securities Co. Ltd.