Dividend Stocks May Best Bonds

随着金融市场动荡和稳定的美联储政策推动债券收益率为记录低点，美国股息股票可能代表固定收入证券的有吸引力的替代品。

过去一年，市场已经反复翻滚，最近是回应的Brexit vote in the U.K.The economic and financial uncertainty surrounding these market stumbles has kept the Federal Reserve squeamish over raising interest rates. Given this backdrop, investors have been fleeing to quality — including to investment-grade U.S. bonds.

该飞行意味着较低的债券产量。虽然这些收益率落下，但股息支付一直在上升。标准普尔500指数的股票的支付在过去五年中升起了两位数的速率，因为公司资产负债表有所改善，活动家投资者推动了更大的资本回报。

As a result, the S&P 500 dividend yield, at 2.1 percent, has climbed above the ten-year Treasury yield, which recently fell below 1.4 percent, for the first time since the late 1950s, according to Deutsche Bank data. “That’s quite an event, bigger than people realize,” says Binky Chadha, the bank’s chief global strategist, in New York. “It tells you dividend equities are very cheap compared to government bonds.”

That makes a strong argument for dividend stocks. “A case can be made for investors with multiyear time horizons looking for a combination of growth and income to focus on a basket of high-quality dividend stocks, rather than high-quality bonds,” says Michael Sheldon, chief investment officer at Northstar Wealth Partners in West Hartford, Connecticut.

U.S. dividend-paying stocks look particularly attractive compared with foreign, developed-country bonds. Because of intensive central bank easing, more than $11.7 trillion of those securities carrynegative interest rates.

The global economic and financial-market turmoil of the past year illustrates the need for safe investments. “After Brexit, the search for income is more acute,” says Bill McMahon, chief investment officer for ThomasPartners, a subsidiary of Charles Schwab Corp., in Boston. “So people are scrambling to finance yield in the equity market, where historically they looked at bonds.” Dividend stocks have an advantage over bonds in that the former often appreciate in value over time, whereas the latter are redeemed at par upon maturity.

在选择股息股票时，投资者应寻找有投资级信用评级的公司，实质上的自由现金流量和股息支付比率和估值水平并不太高。目前，许多分析师认为技术部门对股息股票具有吸引力。“在20世纪90年代末，”股息“是技术公司的肮脏话语，”麦克马洪说。“但在过去的十年中，他们已经变成了坚实的股息付款人。”他指出，成熟的科技公司生成并持有很多现金。特别是，McMahon喜欢Microsoft Corp.和Texas Instruments。

Outside of tech, because of their weakness over the past year money-center bank stocks have compelling valuations and yields, McMahon says. He recommends JPMorgan Chase & Co. and威尔斯法尔戈＆Co.JPMorgan shares have dropped 9.3 percent in the past year and yield 3.1 percent. For Wells Fargo, shares have slipped 17.1 percent and yield 3.2 percent. The banks hold more capital than ever before, and very liquid balance sheets allow them to take advantage of dislocations in fixed-income markets, McMahon says.

Sheldon counsels caution on financial sector stocks, however. For one thing, the big banks face regulatory pressure, and low interest rates have been weighing on their profits. Yields may be attractive in some cases, but dividend growth rates aren’t as high as in other parts of the market, he points out.

Be wary of high-yield stocks, analysts caution. There’s a reason why the yield is high, and it’s often because the stock price has dropped in response to a company’s financial weakness.

丹·苏祖，美国美林州银行的高级美国股权战略家在纽约，警告反对透明度股票股票的过渡。“因为股息股票与利率相关，所以你正在积极下注率，”他说。“如果税率开始在某些时候开始，那可能是一个有意义的逆风。”与此同时，他说，股息股价股价非常昂贵。根据美国银行Merrill Lynch的说法，拉塞尔1000股股息付款人的前瞻性价格盈利比率为16.3，而平均返回1986年。

Nonetheless, dividend stocks are still cheap compared with government bonds, Chadha stresses. So is now a good time to buy the former rather than the latter? “I’d answer a resounding yes,” he says.

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