Daily Agenda: Oil Prices Continue to Weigh on Weak Economies

在周二的电视采访中，哈立德·阿尔法斯的能源部长表示，沙特阿拉伯王国将在阿尔及利亚的石油出口国领导人组织的非正式会议上避免产出。来自世界上最大的石油出口国的评论，该出口商在近乎历史悠久的水平惩罚北美竞争对手，为较弱的经济体提供了令人沮丧的能源价格。委内瑞拉总统Nicolas Maduro那desperate holding onto power after low oil prices cut support for social programs instituted by his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, began arresting opposition leaders on Tuesday ahead of a large protest planned for Thursday, according to local media reports. Meanwhile, the decision by the Kremlin to delay public floatation of Bashneft because of a stalling oil rally underscores Russia’s economic dependence on crude prices. Among the hardest hit of the oil-centric economies, Nigeria today reflected the pain when its National Bureau of Statistic revealed that gross domestic product fell by 2 percent in the second quarter. West Texas Intermediate-grade crude futures contracts for near-month delivery in New York traded as low as $46 ahead of the weekly inventory report by the Energy Information Administration, following last week’s surprising increase. For now, investors are left to ponder not only whether OPEC policymakers will find the political will to cap production, but also whether such a move will work in the face of a supply glut and weak demand.

Inflation remains muted in EU.周三，欧洲统计局发布的消费者 - 价格通货膨胀数据证实，共同货币区货物成本的增长在8月份制服。标题指数登记的成绩为0.2％，表现不佳的共识预测，核心价格与2015年同期的0.8％。周二公布的单一经济数据也很失望，德国价格仅限于收银机的德国价格本月每年0.3％。另外，8月份的标题失业率保持不变。

Rousseff面临最终投票。最终的国会投票在弹劾程序中反对巴西总统帝国卢旺赛德夫will be held today. To succeed, the motion will require a two-thirds majority in Brazil’s Senate and is widely expected to pass. If the impeachment is finalized, acting President Michel Temer will hold office until December 2018. Popular support for Rousseff fell sharply during the recent economic pullback, sparked by declining oil prices and the ongoing Petrobras scandal.

特朗普参观墨西哥。共和党总统候选人唐纳德特朗普今天宣布他将在概述移民政策的广泛致报则之前，他今天将向墨西哥飞往墨西哥的宣布。特朗普来自墨西哥官员的炎症陈述，包括在两个国家之间建立墙壁并获得墨西哥支付它的墙壁的呼吁。

加拿大GDP令人失望。Gross-domestic-product data released this morning by Statistics Canada was weaker than consensus forecasts at an annualized contraction of 1.6 percent for the second quarter. Canada experienced a major setback from wildfires and low oil revenues, which most economists view as temporary. June estimates were stronger than forecast at nearly 1 percent, suggesting that a rebound is likely.

投资组合视角：生活在低挥发性世界中

我们为股票的长期交易者和投资者提供的信息是并且一直保持一致：各种技术证据表明这是牛市。没有真正的理由害怕牛市的尽头。技术（价格 - 行动）考虑因素引领基础知识和经济数据，因此试图根据例如经济数据或更糟糕的是政治问题预测市场方向，注定要失败。我们能做的最好的是监测牛市的健康，此刻没有任何东西，这表明市场正在削弱或以任何方式生病。

We think it is important that longer-term investors are heavily positioned in equities, but doing so requires that we are aware of the challenges of this environment, and of some behavioral factors that can shape investors’ perspectives and errors.

每个人都知道胖尾和黑天鹅 - 最后一个金融危机耸人听闻地致力于这些条款足以让休闲评论者知道疯狂的事情发生。只有最愚蠢的分析师才会说“最近在标准普尔500指数中的这一举措只有每15万年只会发生一次”，因为每个人都知道天真风险管理数学的假设是不充分的。然而，大多数人都错过了另一教训。

如果我们想象一个正常的曲线，就可以获得胖尾，我们将更多的“重量”推到尾部。在睑作决（脂肪尾分布的技术名称）中，还有另一个后果 - 更多的重量也是围绕平均值的簇。如果我们正在考虑市场的分布，这意味着返回比我们预期的更极端和更无聊 - 而不是直觉可能会建议 - 虽然我们确实拥有其中一些“一亿次活动”，但更多的活动群集在中间的某个地方，有更多的活动变化很小。因此，我们可能会争辩说，低波动性只是统治市场行动的着名黑天鹅和脂肪尾的自然后果。

It is vitally important for investors to have a plan, and to stick to that plan when it is challenging. We do need to realize that our subjective evaluations of volatility are unreliable. For instance, many people might have felt that Friday’s decline from the day’s highs, nearly 30 handles, was an extreme move. In the big picture, this was nearly an average move for the S&P, but it felt very large relative to the tiny ranges we’ve seen in recent months.

Should the market decline further, investors are likely to have a very negative reaction. We will see people panic, hit stops, and dump investments with no real justification. Behaviorally, this is the type of action that will lay the seeds for a further rally. Understanding this can help us sidestep this risk and to avoid being one of the casualties of this challenging environment.

亚当·史蒂姆是纽约帕特斯福德的Waverly Advisors的首席投资官。