对保护主义的焦虑投下了一个超越国际货币基金组织会议

In its latestWorld Economic Outlook, published twice a year, the International Monetary Fund reiterated its earlier forecast for 3.1 percent GDP growth this year, following a downgrade in July.

这几天似乎是在国际货币基金组织在国际货币基金组织乐观的过程中。实际上，焦虑渗透在华盛顿的国际货币基金组织/世界银行年度会议上周几乎是明显的。What’s driving the persistent feeling of gloom: a global populist backlash that has stoked resentment against Wall Street and the big banks since the global financial crisis, propelling fringe candidates to the front of the world political stage and ultimately breaking apart the European Union, according to numerous global financial leaders who attended the summit.

会议 - 自以来的第一个BREXIT公民投票，当U.K.投票离开欧盟时 - 在几乎每个地区提高政治风险和不确定性的时候。持续低位甚至世界各地的负利率，结合低迷和不平衡的GDP增长和收入不平等上涨，在觉得他们被遗弃的工人身上创造了一种酝酿的怨恨globalization。

Now that resentment appears to be boiling over. In a series of speeches and comments to the press during the meetings, IMF managing directorChristine Lagarde警告说，由美国总统候选人唐纳德特朗普的发达国家，最着名的竞争，由发达国家匍匐匍匐，对贸易和经济增长产生了真正的威胁。

其他人呼吁她的担忧。“越来越多，人们不相信他们的精英，”德国财政部长沃尔夫冈·斯卡瓦尔在小组讨论中表示。“他们不相信他们的经济领导者，他们不相信他们的政治领导人。”

对世界的投资银行家来说尤其如此。也许唯一统一美国两个主要政党的唯一遵循华尔街的怀疑，在2008年全球金融崩溃后达到了发烧沥青。最近的丑闻 - 其中Wells Fargowas ordered to pay $185 million in fines after news broke that employees had been collecting fees on accounts opened without customers’ knowledge or consent — only fueled the fire.

While the Brexit vote and Trump’s rise are the starkest manifestations of the populist groundswell, political risk isn’t constrained to the U.K. and the U.S., as the rise of Marine Le Pen in France and the anti-capitalist rhetoric of the Five Star party in Italy show.

周六，国际货币基金组织的指导委员会呼吁成员国的政策制定者在可能的情况下使用所有工具 - 低利率，结构改革和财政刺激尽可能促进增长，以达到世界最贫困的人。全球银行家参加聚会签署了这种方法。

Few know the problem as well as the government-owned State Bank of India, which has been drafted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a critical role in his financial inclusion agenda. The country’s largest lender created a mobile banking platform geared toward the country’s poorest citizens that has already opened over 5 million accounts, according to Sujit Kumar Varma, SBI’s chief general manager for the international banking group.

In June the government gave SBI the greenlight to merge with five associate banks, bringing its market share in India to about 25 percent, up from 17 to 18 percent. Yet Varma says that, like other leaders in attendance, he is also wary of how political uncertainty and protectionist policies in the Western world could affect India and global growth prospects.

“我们不能继续在这种不确定性环境中，”Varma告诉亚博赞助欧冠。“这对任何人都不好。”

To that end, he says, the bank will not be aggressive in expanding its international loan book (and it also has to resolve gross non-performing assets of about 5 percent of total loans). “We’ll grow very cautiously,” he says, adding that SBI is waiting to see how Brexit unfolds.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, wars in Yemen, Syria and Iraq are sapping resources, while Gulf countries are scrambling to diversify their economies after the price of crude oil nosedived by more than half since its peak in the summer of 2014.

Riad Salameh, governor of Lebanon’s central bank, Banque du Liban, insists Lebanon’s economy remains resilient, with growth between 1.5 and 2 percent this year despite political turmoil that’s left the country without a head of state since 2014. Still, that’s far below the 8 to 9 percent annual growth rate the country enjoyed before 2011. And Lebanon now has to contend with growing pains from absorbing over a million refugees from its war-torn neighbor Syria.

“What Lebanon needs is political stability,” Salameh tells亚博赞助欧冠, arguing that any good news or clarity from the political sphere would bolster confidence from investors. “Until then the central bank is filling the gap.”

Indonesia offers a glimmer of hope. The island nation, which will be hosting the 2018 annual meetings in Bali, had its name plastered on booths all over the IMF headquarters and brought an Indonesian dance troupe to perform on Saturday.

9月下旬，印度尼西亚银行印度尼西亚央行，将其基准率降至5％的基准率，以提高国内需求。

“We see there is still room for accommodation in central bank policy,” Perry Warjiyo, deputy governor of Bank Indonesia, tells亚博赞助欧冠。Nevertheless, there’s a long road ahead. A strong dollar, matched with China devaluing the yuan, has put pressure on emerging-markets economies that rely on cheap exports and high commodity prices.

But it’s not keeping Warjiyo up at night. “We’ve been building layers of cushion against external shocks,” he says, sounding a rare note of calm at the summit.