While volatility has roiled markets across the globe, investment-grade U.S. corporates have given investors some shelter from the storm. “They have provided a really nice anchor of stable yield,” says Ryan Brist, head of global investment-grade credit at Western Asset Investment Management Co. in Pasadena, California. “It’s a bit of the sun, the moon and the stars,” he adds, that are aligning to favor quality-credit U.S. corporates. Brist points to increasingly负屈服on government bonds in Japan and Germanyas a force driving investors to higher U.S. yields. Plus, he says, U.S. corporate-yield spreads over U.S. Treasuries have risen this year to a level roughly 40 basis points higher than what it was for most of last year.
据杰弗里卡辛州董事总经理兼投资级信贷负责人兼任杰弗里卡苏托统一，在追求更好的养老金基金，该资金占据了世界上的7万亿美元，该资金占据了世界上的7万亿美元，正在寻求美国公司学分。BlackRock。“只要这种情况仍然存在，我认为将有潜在的需求。与美国故事还有潜在的根本舒适。“
我不仅仅是投资者n Japanese and German bonds making the move to U.S. corporates. It’s also cash investors and equity investors, according to Mark Kiesel, chief investment officer of global credit at Newport Beach, California–based太平洋投资管理有限公司Cash investors in Europe and Japan are facing the potential prospect that banks could charge them for deposits, Kiesel says.
On March 10 the European Central Bank set the amount it charges banks to hold cash overnight at -0.4 percent. In January the Bank of Japan introduced negative interest rates. Sweden and Switzerland also have negative rates. So far, banks have been reluctant to charge customers for deposits, except for a few very large depositors. “In any world where there is some inflation, cash is basically a negative-returning asset class,” says Kiesel. If depositors then also have to pay for banks to hold their deposits, it will make matters worse, and cash will lose money even on a nominal basis.
Equity investors, too, are facing a dilemma that might favor quality U.S. credits, “because monetary policy around the world is losing effectiveness at the same time nominal growth rates are slowing,” says Kiesel. That makes equity investing riskier and likely to see lower returns or even losses. Meanwhile high-grade U.S. corporates can offer equity-level 4 percent to 6 percent annual returns with less volatility than equities have, he contends.
Another driver of the trend originates from “a material divergence between some of the major corporate bond markets” that favors U.S. corporates, according Rick Rezek, the New York–based fund manager of U.S. credit for Schroders of London. U.S. investment-grade corporate yields are roughly 140 basis points higher than European yields, Rezek notes. “To be honest, we’ve seen steady flows into the U.S. corporate bond market coming out of the euro zone,” he says.
The contrast is starker in Japan, where investment-grade corporate bonds typically yield less than 25 basis points.
The size of the flows underscores the arguments from U.S. bond fund managers. In the fourth quarter of 2015, there was a net inflow of $12.7 billion from institutional investors into high-grade U.S. corporate bond funds, according to eVestment, a data company based in Marietta, Georgia. A $2.63 billion net inflow from Japan to the U.S. is the largest of any geographical region. Europe is the second largest, with $1.7 billion flowing into the U.S. Latin American ranks third, at $763 million.
仔细观点发现，根据积累，将五个大型资金达到138亿美元的净流量，将广泛的美国债券基金与净流出的市场纳入。该五个是Destra Flaherty＆Crumrine Cathable首选证券，佛陀美国公司信贷战略，PIMCO的投资级公司债券基金，Vanguard的中期投资级基金和西方资产管理的美国投资等级信贷。
Although PIMCO’s Kiesel thinks that a surge into U.S.-quality corporate credits will be “the big investment trend of 2016,” he notes that if there is a U.S. recession, if oil drops to $15 to $20 per barrel and stays there or if there’s a major geopolitical event, it could upend the trend. Indeed, some investors fear that widening spreads could be signaling a U.S. recession, says Bernie Scozzafava, vice president and portfolio manager at Eaton Vance Investment Managers in Boston. Investors also worry about the fallout of higher interest rates if and when the Federal Reserve raises rates again. Even though the U.S. is probably late in the credit cycle, Scozzafava believes positives currently outweigh negatives for corporates. “Despite those worries, we’re more constructive on the U.S. economy. We tend to view this now as more of an opportunity to add corporates,” he says.