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全球金融社区如何应对大流行风险

银行,保险公司,发展金融机构等正在创造创新的融资工具,以减少流行病对发展中国家的影响。

Pandemics对人类生命的不可否认的造成损失。最近的爆发伊波拉病毒in West Africa and Zika virus infections in拉美加勒比地区的经济成本也很大。现在,发展贷方和私营部门正在合作,以帮助满足这些成本。

The 2014 Ebola pandemic highlighted the importance of harnessing the resources of the global financial community to address vulnerabilities to传染病威胁. More than 28,600 people were infected with Ebola worldwide and 11,300 died, primarily in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The disease overwhelmed the capacities of those poor countries and their weak public health systems. Fear of contracting the disease, which can cause organ failure and uncontrollable internal and external bleeding, frightened away international travelers, investors and businesspeople, compounding the costs. The World Bank estimates the Ebola outbreak reduced economic activity by more than $2.2 billion in the three most-affected countries in 2015 alone, and by an additional $500 million across the rest of Africa. The World Bank, the African Development Bank and others have mobilized more than $2 billion to support the recovery.

由于最近的Zika爆发,世界卫生组织预计最多400万人,因此将再次调查金融界。其中5分中只有1人出现症状,但后果可能对那些做的人来说可能是严重的。病毒与瘫痪症的瘫痪障碍综合征和出生缺陷相关联,如贫困母亲的婴儿微骨缺陷。截至周三,Zika病毒在38个国家活跃,主要是拉丁美洲和加勒比地区。世界银行今年的经济损失约为35亿美元,但如果国际反应缓慢,警告该数字可能会飙升。

迅速响应的好处 - 以及延迟成本 - 可以巨大:根据谁,控制2014年埃博拉大流行的成本从500万美元上升,一个月在第一次案件后,达到10亿美元,只有六个月之后。

除了为捐赠金钱,商品和服务捐赠给最糟糕的发展中国家的发展中国家 - 一般电气公司还向危机反应和国际商业机器公司捐赠了200万美元的捐赠软件,以帮助跟踪流行病 -私营部门公司are joining with development institutions to create innovative financing tools, and hoping to develop a new market for pandemic risk management.

2015年1月,渣打银行是第一个解决埃博拉疫情的国际银行之一。伦敦银行有120多年来的塞拉利昂经济,在2002年和2013年的内战结束之间的平均速度平均增长15.3%,但2014年的增长率降至4.6%埃博拉开始传播;2015年产出截止了23.9%,因为疫情袭击的完全爆裂。

去年标准的特许和CDC集团,U.K.政府的发展金融机构借了5000万美元到中等规模的企业,在埃博拉 - 受灾塞拉利昂生产食品,建材,卫生产品等商品。伦敦非洲公共部门和发展组织的公共部门和发展组织表示,资金注入缺乏营运资金,以协助运输和物流的援助机构进行交通和后勤。“在援助资金的潜在正乘数效应上,”经济被淘汰“,”他补充道。该银行正在寻求从经验中学习课程,并制定准备将这种战略扩展到未来的流行病。

“Private sector firms, from mobile phone operators to airlines to financial services firms, have a massive role to play in disease outbreak response,” says Peter Sands, a former Standard Chartered CEO who is a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government and chair of the Commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future, which was behind a January report on countering infectious disease crises. Dozens of firms worldwide formed theEbola Private Sector Mobilization Group在国内资源支持人道主义和医疗保健响应者,并确保受影响国家的长期社会和经济复兴。

世界银行(World Bank)正在开发一种流行病应急Financing (PEF) Facility with the WHO and in consultation with public and private sector partners. The insurance-based, fast-disbursing mechanism will provide early funds to governments and accredited international responders, such as U.N. agencies and other nongovernmental organizations, to restrict or mitigate the impact of a future public health emergency.

To construct the insurance products, the World Bank partnered with AIR Worldwide, a Boston-based risk-modeling firm with extensive pandemic data, to determine the odds and risks of a potential pandemic and determine the pricing of the products. The insurance will pay off when a country hits predetermined criteria — a certain number of deaths in a certain period of time on a trajectory that’s likely to cross borders, for example. “The PEF is meant to be, among other things, a seed for the construction of a pandemic risk management market in the private sector and in the insurance markets,” explains Susan McAdams, senior adviser for development finance at the World Bank in Washington. The bank will issue catastrophe bonds and insurance contracts for immediate use in the face of a potential pandemic. Such bonds will pay high coupons to investors in normal times, but if there’s a pandemic that meets the issue’s criteria in terms of disease-related deaths, investors will lose the principal, which will be used to finance the crisis response. The World Bank Group expects to launch the PEF later this year.

McAdams is hopeful the pandemic risk management field will develop in the next five years, though she admits there’s a perverse incentive structure. “If we are fortunate enough to not have a major, devastating pandemic, the market will be less interested because we humans tend to discount the longer-term possibility of catastrophic events,” she says. “If we are unfortunate enough that there continue to be rapid, challenging and frightening events, then I would think the market would develop quite quickly.”