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By Richard Westlund
Commercial real estate has benefitted from the sustained global economic recovery, which has driven demand for office, industrial and retail properties. But is there still room for growth in the multifamily and regional mall sectors? Leading investment and advisory professionals say the answer is yes.
“我们在全球范围内深入投资所有主要的商业房地产行业，”董事总经理克里斯·麦克斯邦（Chris McGibbon），董事总经理，美国全球房地产，全球房地产全球房地产。“一般来说，我们远远超出了长期人口趋势的循环。”
One of the drivers of multifamily demand in the U.S. and Canada is the size of the Millennial generation as well as the inflow of immigrants from around the world, says Doug Poutasse, EVP and head of strategy at Bentall Kennedy, a Sun Life Investment Management Company. “Unlike the baby bust that followed the Baby Boom generation, there is no drop off in births this time. Therefore, we expect a continuous wave of potential renters going forward.”
Retail is also in high demand, adds Poutasse. “Millennials don’t want to live somewhere without take-out food in walking distance. So you need a mix of uses and public spaces, including regional malls.”
Noting that the multifamily market remains strong, Calvin Schnure, SVP, Research & Economic Analysis, National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT), says, “The retail sector is still recovering, but moving in the right direction.” In addition, the growth of ecommerce has increased the need for warehouse and distribution facilities, he adds.
Looking at the overall U.S. commercial real estate market, the FTSE NAREIT U.S. Real Estate Index rose 2.29 percent last year following a 27.15 percent rise in 2014. Last year’s performance surpassed the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and Russell 2000 Total Return Index, according to NAREIT research.
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| Chris McGibbon TIAA Global Real Estate |
克里斯西班牙 Cushman＆Wakefield. |
Multifamily: Demand far surpasses supply
While some investors are concerned about overbuilding in the multifamily market, the pace of new construction is well below demand, says Chris Spain, EVP, capital markets investment sales and acquisitions, Cushman & Wakefield in Atlanta.
“We are used to multifamily boom and bust cycles, but I believe we have a well-balanced market. Today, we have working families, Boomers and Millennials who choose to rent instead of own.”
In the Southeastern U.S., Spain has seen rental apartment values go up $50,000 to $60,000 a unit in the past three years, with a similar rise in rents. “Returns haven’t changed very much and the cap rate [the ratio of net operating income to asset value] for core product in the region remains around 4.5 percent.”
Nationwide, the value of U.S. apartment REITs has doubled in the past five years, reaching approximately $150 billion in 2015, according to NAREIT statistics.
“美国每年约有1250万新户组织形式。”Schnure说。“自金融危机以来，新建一年的新建筑一直处于50万台。这意味着如果您拥有现有建筑，您可以期待高占用，并收取良好的租金。“
Leading investment companies are deploying various strategies to capitalize on the strong multifamily market. “We have focused on urban locations and infill areas,” says Ric Clark, senior managing partner and chairman. Brookfield Property Group. Brookfield is developing Manhattan West, a 5.4 million-square-foot mixed-use project with 840 rental apartments, as well as another 700 units in Brooklyn.
“We are also acquiring older suburban properties and renovating them as a turnaround play,” adds Clark, noting that Brookfield’s portfolio includes about 40,000 apartment units. “With little new development in the works, we think the next several years look good.”
In contrast, TIAA Global Real Estate has focused on workforce housing that caters to middle-class renters, such as nurses, teachers, police officers and construction workers. “This segment of the market has strong fundamentals and continues to be underserved in terms of supply,” says James G. Martha, managing director, Global Real Estate.
“学生住房和高级住房是两个策略，这些策略补充了劳动力多摩性市场，玛莎补充道。“他们针对核心需求的不同人口段，在该部门中创造了多样化的机会。Bentall Kennedy正在开发在美国和加拿大创新市场的新租赁公寓，高薪职业和生活方式设施距离多梦群落仅有几步之遥。“旧金山是我们投资多方产品的创新市场，”艾米价格，Coo，Bentall Kennedy美国。“由于巨大的需求和供应限制，我们现在正在寻找具有非常引人注目的动态的奥克兰，包括前往旧金山市中心的12分钟的巴特。”
Looking to the future, Price says, “With multifamily, you need a long-term view of investing. It’s hard to develop or acquire properties with a short-term perspective.”
区域商场：分裂市场
在过去十年中，电子商务的增长对砂砾零售店产生了重大影响。“自2011年以来的总零售销售增长的一半以上的一半是电子商务，并且该分享继续上涨，”施圣尔说。“成功的零售商正在将他们的在线平台与商场商店作为展厅和购物场所集成 - 这是一个很大的调整。”
As in multifamily, demand is growing faster than supply with about 2 million square feet of new retail construction annually compared with 3 million square feet net absorption of retail space. Retail rent growth is rising gradually with a 2 percent increase in 2015, according to NAREIT.
Across the U.S., the regional mall market is divided between the “haves” and the “have-nots,” says McGibbon. “The A and AA credit malls that dominate their trade areas appear to be stronger than ever, while the B and C credit malls continue to struggle. An intelligent deployment of capital into an A or AA mall can deliver twice the return of an investment made in upgrading or renovating older retail centers.”
Mark Gilbert，EVP，Capital Markets零售业顾问，迈阿密的Cushman＆Wakefield，同意。“零售商密切关注每平方英尺的销售情况，”他说。“当他们有机会进入一个更好的商场时，他们很快就会搬到那里。”
在南佛罗里达州的密集城市市场中，开发商正在规划新的大规模项目，迎合游客以及当地居民。吉尔伯特指向Brickell City Center，迈阿密市中心附近的10亿美元的混合用途项目，作为这一趋势的一个例子。“随着办公室，多型，酒店和公寓组件，加上一个过境站，您无法为零售购物创造更好的环境，”他说。
其他投资机会包括通过额外的开发权利收购较小市场的现有商场，例如添加公寓或办公室，“Gilbert说。“这使得美国门户和沿海市场对零售商更具吸引力。
Looking beyond the U.S. retail market, McGibbon says, “We believe there is still good value in emerging global markets, although there are far more uncertainties than in the U.S. I believe the market often undervalues the premium needed for emerging market volatility, but if you can stand the ups and downs, there is good value there in the long run.”
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| Ric Clark 布鲁克菲尔德财产集团 |
Calvin Schnure National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) |
Doug Poutasse. Bentall肯尼迪 |