2016 All-Asia Research Team: Economics, No. 3: Hong (Helen) Qiao & team

Hong (Helen) Qiao & team

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

First-place appearances: 3

Total appearances: 12

Team debut: 1998

In third place is Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which led this lineup the past three years. Its greater China and Asia ex-Japan economic research efforts are now overseen by newcomerHong (Helen) Qiao, whose predecessors — Hak Bin Chua and Ting Lu — have left the firm. The performance of Asian economies has been “uninspiring” in the first quarter of 2016, Qiao reports. “All have suffered from further deterioration in external demand and have had to rely on consumption for growth stabilization.” Even so, she and her eight-person squad do see some green shoots emerging from otherwise rocky soil. Government spending, particularly in China, “is translating into some visible improvement in infrastructure investment,” she explains, and “in the absence of unemployment pressure, retail sales in the region have held up much better than capital expenditures.” Although “the jury is still out on whether this ‘releveraging’ trend is sustainable,” she contends that “even a shallow recovery in industrial demand in China could lend support to regional growth stabilization” over the next 12 months. However, the nascent economic boomlet is endangered by interest rate hikes in the U.S., which could result in “dollar strengthening and capital outflows” from Asia, the researcher cautions, while “premature policy tightening” in China could further weaken that country’s already fragile property market and “pose potential risks to growth and market sentiment.” Qiao, 38, is “the first person I call when I want to know something about China’s economy,” one portfolio manager attests. “She and her team have done a good job of keeping us abreast of what is going on with China — in particular, they published a very good piece on nonperforming loans.” Before moving to BofA Merrill in October, she directed China coverage for Goldman Sachs (Asia) then Morgan Stanley, leading the latter firm’s crew to four straight appearances on this survey’s China roster, including second place in 2014 and 2015. This year she and David Cui co-pilot her new squad to No. 2 on that lineup. Previously, Qiao worked at the World Bank Group in Washington and for Lehman Brothers in Tokyo. She earned a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in California and holds a bachelor’s degree in international trade from Beijing’s Renmin University of China.