第一季度被证明是市场的不确定和挥发性期。恐惧从中国的成长和随访商品出口新兴市场的烦恼减缓来关注美国的增长前景和未来道路的问题美联储货币政策。然而到本季度末,大部分市场恐惧都有减少,金融条件出现稳定。考虑到,在12月,美联储感觉经济条件的迅速转变是显着的,令人愉快的经济条件有权徒步旅行,结束零界限的历史性七年的政策率。
在许多方面,通货膨胀市场并不免于这种紊乱。事实上,1月的市场行动似乎有点让2008年让我们在Blackrock上让我们想起 - 至少在地面上。事实上,通货膨胀融合率在2月中旬达到了一个新的损失,但由于这些水平的近45个基点反弹了。
The first step toward stabilizing inflation markets was the announcement on February 3 from the U.S. Treasury that it would reduce the supply of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) by $6 billion in the first quarter of 2016. If that degree of reduced issuance were to be maintained through the rest of the year — as we anticipate it will be — it would amount to a 15 percent supply cut for the year. The Treasury move provided relief to an oversupplied asset class that struggled to match supply with demand as some institutional buyers pulled back from exposures to dollar-based assets. Overall, we expect to see net new issuance of TIPS decline this year, providing a supportive technical backdrop to the asset class (see chart 1). Of note, we believe the influence of supply cuts will not be felt evenly across the TIPS curve on a risk-adjusted basis, as it’s likely to hold greater significance for 30-year TIPS than for shorter-dated maturities, potentially providing a favorable boost to the long end of the inflation curve.
在过去的一年中,全球增长放缓,商品价格的急剧下降,发达市场的历史上低通胀率都结合起来促进对通货紧缩的恐惧。Recent data suggest these fears are unwarranted, however, at least in the U.S. More specifically, both the headline consumer price index and the core CPI measure, which excludes food and energy, have been on upward trajectories since the start of 2016. Part of the reason for this trend is that energy price declines in late 2014 are contributing to positive base effects today as they roll off from year-over-year data measures. Core inflation’s strength is also noteworthy. Core CPI increased at a 0.3 percent month-over-month rate in both January and February, bringing the year-over-year rate of growth to 2.3 percent, a level not seen since early 2012.
尽管联邦储备椅Janet Yellen似乎将这种紧致的通货膨胀率作为“暂时“在美联储3月16日的政策会议之后的新闻发布会上,我们看到通货膨胀的原因保持凝固。在Yellen的话语中,通货膨胀数据的一些组成部分“往往是相当不稳定的,对于随着时间的推移,对膨胀非常重要。”确实,近来历史上的价格增加了挥发性类别,如服装和酒店住宿,不太可能持续存在。尽管如此,我们发现通货膨胀令人鼓舞的加速度的广泛特征。如果我们查看CPI月度扩散指数(见图2),我们可以在整体通胀市场篮子的组件内辨别多种强度。此外,消费品,住所,医疗保健和娱乐等类别在历史上非常稳定,可能表现出持续的力量。最后,更严格的劳动力市场可能开始喂养价格通胀,我们认为在2016年将加强的趋势。
最近风险资产和油价的稳定也在考虑我们对更高通胀的期望。这一事实,结合CPI数据的实现上涨和较高级别的核心CPI,说服我们,提示应该继续加入兴趣。
最近几周通货膨胀估值的另一个关键驱动力是来自美联储和暗示中央银行可能愿意让通货膨胀率达到热门的越来越多的语言。当然,欧洲央行最近扩大了宽敞的政策,也是通货膨胀估值的一个因素。
问题是,在那里,在哪里,所有这些市场交叉流都在今天留下提示市场估值,特别是在通货膨胀市场表现中最近看到的最近的力量?在我们看来,有利的供应技术,CPI的比率较高,似乎有良好的美联储,因为有点意味着提示有更多的空间来运行。
尽管事实上,自2月中旬以来,五年的现货休息时间达到了大约45个基点,我们认为曲线上的Breakevens可以移动另外30个基点只是为了达到我们对公允价值的估计值。更重要的是,估值在通胀曲线和前向市场的较长末端看起来特别引人注目。尽管近期市场上看到了强劲的反弹,但宏观和政策环境意味着资产课程中有更多的价值。
Martin Hegarty是Lead Portfolio Manager,Gargi Chaudhuri是一个高级投资组合经理,通货膨胀联系的债券投资组合黑石在纽约的全球固定收入集团。
更多地获得更多固定收入。