北美铁路行业的大胆游戏于4月11日出现轨道，加拿大太平洋铁路退出其未经请求的$ 280亿美元的竞争对手诺福克南部公司。彭伯德·哈里森和活动家投资者威廉阿克曼，计划交易将是自2001年以来两级北美货运铁路的第一个合并。
但诺福克的管理和董事会，基于弗吉尼亚州的目标尚未谈谈。在三次拒绝和旨在通过股东投票迫使合并谈判的代理申请后，卡尔加里总部CP看到“目前没有明确的友好合并，”哈里森在一份声明中表示。
CP投资者对结果感到满意：公司的股票于4月15日在187.65澳元（145美元）上，今年上涨6.2％。政治家，铁路客户和工会反对这笔交易，这将减少七至六级的1级铁路的数量，担心失业损失和更高的货运费用。就其部分而言，CP向美国司法部提出来调查它所谓的反竞争努力，以阻止诺福克南方合并。
Harrison and CP board member Ackman, founder and CEO of hedge fund firm潘兴广场资本管理，有巨大的梦想为融合：大陆的第三大铁路，从温哥华延伸到迈阿密。为了实现东海岸野心，CP还可以吞下更大的竞争对手CSX公司，而是佛罗里达州的杰克逊维尔据报道，弗洛里达的公司估计了20亿美元的报价，使得这一前景不太可能。
在许多季度不受欢迎的合并中，北美铁路行业在交叉口发现自己，寻找新的增长引擎。商品溃败，特别是煤的陡峭衰退，深入切入交通量。但是铁路老板 - 和看涨投资者，包括亿万富翁Warren Buffett- 请参阅隧道末端的光。
For shareholders, who had been accustomed to steady growth before it ground to a halt in the first quarter of last year, the ride may continue to be bumpy. “After 15 years of relative outperformance, what we see now is a return to cyclicality with volumes but not pricing or margin improvement,” says Ken Hoexter, a New York–based transportation analyst at美国银行Merrill Lynch。
The glory days are over, Hoexter warns. The “new normal” for railroads means earnings-per-share growth “in low two digits to mid teens,” versus peak returns north of 25 percent between 2003 and 2014, he says.
Until last year railroad revenue kept climbing, propelled by strong global appetite for commodities, favorable pricing and leaps in efficiency. Then growth hit a major snag. Coal shipments, which accounted for 39 percent of all U.S. carloads and 18 percent of U.S. railroad profits in 2014, according to the Washington-based Association of American Railroads (AAR), went into sharp decline.
Factors ranging from tougher environmental rules for power plants to cheap shale gas and weak Chinese demand have hammered the coal business. U.S. production will shrink to 752.5 million metric tons this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts, a 31 percent drop from 2011. On April 13, St. Louis–based Peabody Energy Corp., the top American coal miner, filed for Chapter 11, joining fellow publicly traded giants such as Alpha Natural Resources and Arch Coal in bankruptcy protection.
铁路觉得捏。在第一季度，美国航空公司，美国航空公司的总卡载量下降了13.8％。煤炭出货量导致方式，下降32.5％;石油产品和矿石和金属分别下降了20.9％和9.8％。
“我们认为化石燃料可能已经死了，”哈里森是一个直接说话的田纳西州的三月在纽约J.P.摩根交通大会上表示。“过渡需要很长时间。”
Still, railroads are faring better than the commodities producers whose goods they haul. Last year CP’s adjusted diluted earnings per share climbed to a record C$10.10, a 19 percent increase over C$8.50 in 2014. Revenue also set a record, edging up to C$6.71 billion from C$6.62 billion in 2014. On April 15, CSX stock closed at $25.93, flat for the year and up 18 percent since May 2011. By contrast, the Market Vectors Coal ETF finished the day at $8.18, down some 80 percent during the same period.
作为货运列车进入陌生领域，将新的收入刺激增长和加息回归？在铁路运营中没有“基本，量子转移”，CP总裁和Coo Keith Creel告诉了亚博赞助欧冠，引用精确调度和单个跟踪，其中列车两种方式都有相同的轨道。
专家说，不同的货物将在五年内通过铁路旅行。“收入投资组合将剧烈不同，”预测CSX的CFO弗兰克卢格罗。铁路正在固定他们对多式联运业务的希望，卡车和火车在卡车现在占主导地位的路线上的整合。该计划是为了更快的列车，将替代煤炭和其他缓慢移动商品随时交付消费品。
From Montreal to Fort Worth, Texas, railroad executives are keeping their eyes on head count. “Labor is our largest cost,” Lonegro says. “In five to ten years, we’ll move to less labor intensity, from two to one person in a cab, and maybe in my lifetime to zero.” In Australia some trains already run by remote control, he notes.
在哈里森在2012年负责之前，在加拿大国家铁路有限公司七年后，CP为太少付出了太少，据克雷尔：“人们会有效地进入六个小时的工资。”在打出他们后，他们会去第二个工作岗位。地上？“我们不需要尽可能多的人，”克雷尔说。2015年，通往斯巴达操作率的途径 - 铁路行业的操作边际代理 - CP将其劳动力修剪12％，占地1,800名员工。哈里森认为，被称为无情的成本刀具，预计今年将削减另外1,000个工作岗位。
在一个由Facebook和iPhone分散注意力的世界中，货运火车的纯粹规模和力量仍然灵感敬畏。单个柴油机车可以体重高达200吨。在俄亥俄州北巴尔的摩，CSX西北俄亥俄州国际奥尔米多尔码头跨越500英亩，距离约35英里。终端每天组装33列车，使用七个巨大的起重机，可以抬起46吨。它只是CSX网络中的一个节点，用于近三分之二的美国人口和全国制造基地的60％。
“铁路进入你的血液，”CSX的Lonegro说，其公司在1930年开始运营的传奇巴尔的摩和俄亥俄州铁路的起源。
近200年的历史，以及在一个大陆的塑造方面的局面，有助于解释这种吸引力。“如果没有铁路，今天的美国将在所有概率与美国略有不同于美国的一百年前，”爱德华·亨格福德写道现代铁路。该地标历史于1911年出版，五年前，北美航线里程达到254,000。
For most of the 20th century, dozens of railroads crisscrossed North America. Class 1 operations had colorful nicknames describing their local provenance: The Boston & Maine was known as the Route of the Minute Man, the Nashville, Chattanooga and St. Louis was dubbed the Dixie Line, and the Western Pacific was called the Feather River Route. Burlington Northern’s moniker — the West’s First Mega Railroad — foreshadowed changes ahead.
1960年，北美是106级铁路，距离轨道不到160,000英里。1980年的滞销轨道法案松动的行业调节，触发了一股整合浪潮。2001年，当美国地面运输委员会开始需要融合以证明这笔交易的公司有七大北美铁路。此规则不受CP等播放器（如CP）未对STB进行正式合并应用程序。
自1999年以来，三一二点统治了北美的轨道，当时CSX和诺福克南部划分了综合铁路公司的资产，更好地称为康明，1974年制定的政府补贴的货运铁路。
密西西比河，CSX和诺福克南方的东部。在西方，两个竞争对手是奥马哈，内布拉斯加州的联盟太平洋铁路和BNSF铁路公司总部位于沃思堡和全资拥有伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司。CP and Montreal-based Canadian National span Canada and own some rail assets below the 49th parallel.
堪萨斯州南铁路公司是唯一抵御其他人的铁路;它的路线沿着美国的中心运行到墨西哥南部。所有轨道都通往芝加哥，大肩膀，当恶劣天气或能源暂停止血时，史诗火车绑定。
在时代的迹象中，火车运营商缺乏铁路码的空间，以存储已陷入废弃的所有资产。Miles of Miles Milhballed滚动股票和闲置机车揭示了一个在压力下的行业。爱荷华州太平洋持有人邀请争议数百个空的原油罐车在其在阿迪朗达克公园的铁路壁板上，是纽约州北斯特泰特的自然保护区。基于芝加哥的公司拥有其他几个此类存储地点，位于科罗拉多州沃尔诺贝格的地方。伊利诺伊州麋鹿格罗夫村;和加利福尼亚州沃森维尔。
与此同时，在货运铁路中购买，持有或销售股票的决定已达到交汇处。“他们有点高估了。在某些时候，人们预计将继续进入夕阳，“巴尔的摩的资产经理T. Rowe价格的交通分析师Andrew Davis说。“这是一种拐点，投资者试图弄清楚与他们有关。”
这种不确定性并没有害怕佩戴广场的Ackman和另外两家亿万富翁。从不介意BNSF的令人失望的一年，1995年伯灵顿北方与阿斯基森，Topeka和Santa Fe Railway以及Berkshire Hathaway组合的最大职位。第五级的收入1级铁路在2015年下降5％，达到219.7亿美元。
在他最新的年度股东的年度信函中，伯克希尔·海瑟韦董事长和首席执行官去年挑选了奥马哈的母公司最重要的发展：近60亿美元的BNSF资本支出。他写道，这笔款项是“遥远的美国铁路的记录，即我们的年度折旧费用近三倍。”“花钱很好。”
2009年，询问了他对77.4％购买剩余的77.4％的BNSF父母伯灵顿北方Santa Fe Corp.的动机，巴菲特犹豫不决。“这是美国经济未来的一贯赌注，”他说。“我喜欢那些赌注。”
Cascade Investment，Microsoft联合创始人的家庭投资办公室比尔盖茨, counts CN among its five largest stakes. Since Gates disclosed the investment in mid-2000, CN stock has risen 13-fold, closing at C$81.18 on April 15.
运费收入是俘获的衰退，即SAP对原材料的需求。铁路管理人员缺乏经济增长的任何权力，专注于他们可以调整的拨号：操作比率。70％的操作比率意味着铁路花费了70美分的每笔收入，并保持30美分;其他行业通常将其框架作为30％的营业率。“营业效率创造了容量，”CP的令人诗。
CN以来，由于上一十年来，自上届纪念日首席执行官哈里森推出了经营效率抽奖活动。在2015年第四季度，公司的经营比率低于60％，铁路相当于四分钟的英里。落后，CP从比例切断了470个基点，击中了2015年的61％，其最佳全年结果。2016年，它将比例低于59％。CSX结束2015年首次拥有低于70％以下的工作比率，甚至允许在多式联运体积中具有较窄的边距。
Compare these ratios to the 87.5 percent in 2004 at Union Pacific, North America’s biggest Class 1 railroad. Last year its operating ratio was a much trimmer 63.1 percent, and management plans to reach 60 percent by 2019. A stretch goal with no stated deadline, 55 percent “is a mindset as much as a financial metric to rally the organization forward,” CFO Robert Knight said at a Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. transportation conference in February.
CFO Lonegro解释说，在60年代中期铰链中实现了四倍的CSX策略，以便将该公司的铁路网络适应新的商业环境。另外三条腿：利用技术来最大限度地提高效率，提高对多式联运的投资并提供优质的服务。
现在,CP放弃了拟议的合并r, Norfolk Southern can roll out a strategy aimed at streamlining operations. It faces a longer climb than other railroads, with a 2015 operating ratio of 72.6 percent and headed the wrong way, up 374 basis points from 2014.
Chief executive James Squires took over a year ago with the bar set low. Norfolk Southern saw net income drop 22 percent last year, to $1.6 billion; at $5.10, earnings per share fell 20 percent. Squires, who was already president and now also serves as chairman, has promised an array of cost reductions and improved operational efficiencies that seek to lower the company’s operating ratio to 65 percent by 2020.
对于两名在铁路来到铁路时，这两个人认为，贝克曼和猎人哈里森不可能更加不同。
在20世纪60年代初的孟菲斯在孟菲斯的孟菲斯大学学习业务时，哈里森开始了他的铁路职业作为现有的劳动者，即现在已经存在的圣路易斯旧金山铁路。他向上工作了，上升到伯灵顿北部服务设计副总裁，1980年收购了Frisco。哈里森，71，从未害羞地挥舞着斧头。游说转向单轨导致与伯灵顿北首席执行官更加谨慎的伯灵顿北部的差异，1988年加大了哈里森。
他搬到了伊利诺伊州的中央，成为加拿大国家在1998年购买本公司前的总统兼首席执行官。他开始作为联合业务的合作社，他继续作为总统兼首席执行官，直到2009年退休。在CN，哈里森赢得了推动限制提高利润的声誉。他的签名移动：他称之为精确的铁路 - 更长，更快的列车，旨在为更少的服务提供更好的服务，并撕掉双轨以降低维护成本。
CP而不是保持平行轨道，而不是足够长的单个曲线，而且距离近2英里的火车。“你不需要100英里的双曲曲，”海湾战争退伍军人总裁和浣熊·克雷斯说，他离开军队为伯灵顿北部工作，哈里森注意到并推动了他。“想想你可以删除的所有基础架构。”在过去三年中，CP已经完成了65次阶层转换。
With a handpicked team that included Creel, Harrison battled costs into submission at CN. In 2002, calling him “a giant of railroading,” trade publication铁路时代他的一年中的铁袜者命名，他将在2015年再次获胜。
这种效率在2011年通过歌舞广场购买了14％的CP，纽约的纽约的纽约对冲基金公司的纽约奖金，而效率不会丢失。他打电话给哈里森，诱惑他退休。经过一场激烈的代理战斗，使得CP之前的争斗取代并看到Ackman坐在董事会席位，哈里森于2012年6月签署了总统兼首席执行官。
房地产金融家的儿子，Ackman，49，已经利用出生而赋予的优势。他在哈佛大学度过了大学几年，在那里他在2004年赢得了MBA，在播放了早期的投资业务之后推出了Pershing广场。
作为一个活动家，他的结果是混合的。Ackman的舞蹈广场控股，阿姆斯特丹上市的39亿美元封闭基金，于2015年损失了20.5％，截至4月中旬，今年下降了相同的金额。这种戏剧性的堕落在另一个加拿大商业中造成了很多糟糕的堕落广场，持有缬草制药国际举行的山峰广场首席执行官J. Michael Pearson将在美国证券交易委员会与其定价实践中的探索中离开。自从加入了基于魁北克的公司拉瓦尔的董事会以来已经加入了董事会。
有一段时间，CP遵循哈里森下的可预测脚本：连续的宿舍提供了每股记录收入和收益，以及萎缩的操作比率。2014年10月，公司的股价在241.67美元上涨，超过其哈里森负责时的价值三倍。但除了几个集会之外，3月份股票广场的股权为9.1％ - 自从以来一直在下降。
All of this may have put pressure on CP to pursue a union with Norfolk Southern. Given his recent losses, Ackman arguably had more riding on the deal than Harrison, who has claimed that a merger with CSX would suit him equally fine. “Look, if nothing happens, we’ve got a wonderful franchise here in Canada,” he said of the Norfolk Southern bid on a January earnings call. “We have not fallen in love with any deal.”
Through the 2008–’09 financial crisis and other rough patches during the past decade and a half, railroads have proven resilient. Cash flow easily financed operations, capital expenditures, debt service, dividends and buybacks (see table, page 33). Now, with U.S. unemployment falling, home prices approaching precrisis levels in some areas and a service economy fueling demand for intermodal transport, trains appear poised for another growth spurt. Railroads assert that the intermodal business will pick up the slack left by the commodities crash.
At CN, intermodal furnishes “the building blocks of all the initiatives that we have put together over the last five years,” president and CEO Claude Mongeau recently told analysts. The vision: freight cars filled with television sets, furniture and appliances getting to retailers and consumers in timely fashion. New rolling stock will cater to this rising demand, and updated rail yards will move intermodal goods with peak efficiency.
CSX, which reported moving 2.8 million intermodal loads in 2015, sees plenty of room for growth. In the eastern U.S., trucks now carry 9 million freight loads more than 550 miles, a distance that makes those shipments good candidates for conversion to intermodal. A modest share of this additional business would multiply volume and spread fixed costs across a wider base, lifting profits. CSX’s intermodal activity has doubled in the past ten years; it started from a low base, but that’s five times the expansion in truck freight, CFO Lonegro says.
Structural barriers could hamper intermodal progress. The average train speed of below 25 miles an hour, subject to innumerable crossings and local speed limits, poses a challenge to swift long-distance rail delivery. At such a crawl, trains can take two days to cover 1,000 miles, a distance that trucks travel in half the time and planes in much less for high-value cargo.
In some North American rail corridors, however, intermodal trains have gained traction, validating hopes for robust growth. Big changes won’t happen overnight. Managers who normally focus on the next quarter take a long view of intermodal, with Lonegro forecasting “a secular shift that will happen over time.”
Norfolk Southern chief marketing officer Alan Shaw is equally cautious. “Our customers are committed in the intermodal network to long-term growth, and they understand that we need to be able to invest in the network to accommodate the growth,” he said in January. “And so we’re taking a long-term view of this.”
As railroads vie for intermodal, the trucking industry faces its own struggles. Lower oil prices have helped trucks, which use roughly six times as much fuel as trains to carry a load the same distance. But the wear and tear from poorly kept highways has jacked up maintenance and replacement costs, and ubiquitous congestion slows trucks down. Worse still, driver turnover exceeds 75 percent a year.
“I heard that one trucking company actually has more employees attempting to recruit drivers than obtain sales,” says veteran rail consultant Charles Banks, president of R.L. Banks & Associates, an Arlington, Virginia–based firm that has advised global freight railroads since 1956. “If that doesn’t paint a picture then I don’t know what does.”
It’s too soon to predict an intermodal outcome. Large long-haul trucking companies can still fight for business even if it means trimmer profits, and coexistence is crucial, given that freight depends on trucks for short hauls between loading docks.
Capital expenditures divert 15 to 20 percent of railroad topline revenue, largely to maintain current assets. It’s a big chunk, but as a result, rail companies invested in track beds and modern facilities as taxpayer-supported highways deteriorated. With the exception of CN, capex may take a breather in 2016 to ease expected pressure on cash flow, a rich source of capital for dividends and stock buybacks.
If CP’s Harrison has his way, regulatory hurdles won’t stop the Class 1 railroad club from dwindling to six members or fewer. “M&A is going to happen, and it should happen,” he declared at the start of the year, when he had more cause for optimism. “It’s just a matter of time.” •