缅甸的过渡需要来自华盛顿的帮助手

3月30日是缅甸的历史日期，标志着在56年内首先将权力转移到一个在自由和公平选举中选择的政府。由长期反对派领导的国家民主联盟（NLD）联盟Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, won a resounding victory in the November 2015 elections, capturing 77.1 percent of the vote and an overwhelming majority of the contested seats in the two-chamber parliament. But 25 percent of parliamentary seats are reserved for the armed forces, known as the Tatmadaw, which holds the keys to future constitutional reform.

到目前为止,如果信贷des, the transition from military government to quasi-military government to democratically elected government has progressed smoothly and peacefully. Although the constitution bars Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president because her sons, like her late husband, have British nationality, parliament earlier this month passed a bill to create the position of state counsellor, akin to prime minister, for her. The measure passed despite vociferous opposition from the military, with all military parliamentarians voting against the measure.

To govern effectively, the NLD will need the loyalty of the civil service and military. After 56 years of military and quasi-military rule, this may not come easily, but Aung San Suu Kyi has emphasized the NLD’s commitment not to seek retribution for past deeds by the military and its allies. Such a commitment is essential to implementing much-needed reforms and maintaining unity in a nation fractured by economic hardship and decades of civil strife between rival political factions and breakaway ethnic groups.

The public pins high hopes, and perhaps unrealistic expectations, on her and her team. Even without those, the new government faces massive challenges to improve the economy, modernize the country’s decayed infrastructure and reform Myanmar’s governance to a point at which the U.S. will lift its economic sanctions.

Robert S. Pé, a partner in the Hong Kong office of U.S. law firm Gibson Dunn and an adviser on legal affairs to Aung San Suu Kyi, believes the government will focus on improving the economy, infrastructure, health care and education and putting in place the necessary human capital to improve the rule of law, but he cautions that progress may come more slowly than some would like.

The NLD inherits a substantial budget deficit that limits its room for maneuvering.

缅甸拥有5400万人的人口和丰富的农业和矿产财富，尽管该国的基础设施，教育水平和治理较差，但仍提供了发展导向企业的巨大潜力。然而，华盛顿的制裁在很大程度上防止了美国和其他成员的经济合作与发展成员（经合组织）参与这些增长机会。

缅甸在2009年采取了更开放的政策以来，国际银行在采用更开放的政策之后大幅提升，但国际银行不会转移到该国的美元转移，以担心惩罚美国的惩罚。因此，现金是国王，在缅甸开展业务的公司必须在实际上携带美元进入该国。只接受清脆的新笔记。这些限制在竞争中，美国企业块infrastructure projects或投资缅甸。结果是，中国和印度是缅甸迅速发展经济的主要球员，而美国联盟和经合组织的其他国家正在失去。

If, as seems likely, Myanmar remains on track for continuing democratic reforms, improving human rights and rule of law, then isn’t it time to ease the blocks on interbank dollar transactions? The lifting of at least this part of the Myanmar sanctions would improve the business environment. After all, the U.S. trades with and allows interbank dollar transactions with countries that don’t have democratically elected governments and have worse human rights records than does Myanmar. The lifting of sanctions will require a lot of hard work to ensure that Myanmar’s recent bright start is followed with substantive, sustained and entrenched governance and compliance reforms.

In the meantime, companies doing or wanting to do business in Myanmar face considerable difficulties. Much of Myanmar’s economy is dominated by two armed forces–controlled conglomerates: Myanmar Economic Corp. and Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings. Although they are reforming themselves and recently committed to paying tax, they have a long way to go to meet international standards of governance.

新的民主党政府面临重大挑战，但最后，经过几十年的孤立和一些虚假的开始，缅甸可能是发展和繁荣的道路。成功的机会只休息，部分地掌握在人民，政府和军队的缅甸。该国的前景也涉及美国政府和其他海外决策者的手。他们有能力使缅甸能够充分利用国际信用和投资。

Julian Stargardt is CEO of Hong Kong–based Asia Pacific Strategic Consulting and a senior research associate with the University of Sussex’s Centre for World Environmental History.