Municipal Bonds Show Strength as Recovery Continues

虽然Puerto Rico’s default分析师说，占领美国市政债券市场的新闻，整体画面，整体画面非常明亮，正如大多数其他公共实体都在做得很好，谢谢。

Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory, shares little in common with other municipalities. “There are 60,000 municipal issuers, and only a dozen or two are having problems,” says Joseph Rosenblum, director of municipal credit research for AllianceBernstein in New York. “Most municipalities are doing what they are supposed to do: paying their obligations and continuing to move forward.”

In fact, the Barclays Municipal Bond index returned 3.08 percent year-to-date through May 17, and 6.52 percent for the 12 months through May 17. The Barclays U.S. Treasury index returned 3.41 percent and 3.6 percent during those periods. And analysts say munis’ strength is likely to continue.

As for Puerto Rico, it began defaulting on a portion of its $70 billion debt earlier this year, and concern is growing that it won’t be able to make $2 billion in principal and interest payments due July 1. As distressing as that is, Puerto Rico’s problems have been known for some time. “You could see it ten years ago,” says Timothy McGregor, director of municipal fixed income at Northern Trust in Chicago.

Because of its status as a territory of the U.S., it’s overseen by the U.S. Congress. “It’s simply its own creature,” says Phil Fischer, head of municipal research and global indexes for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “It tried to lever its way out of recession, and now Congress is trying to figure out what to do.” Republican and Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives agreed on legislation Wednesday that would create a control board to help manage Puerto Rico’s debt and oversee its restructuring.

Meanwhile, states and cities are working their way out of budget problems that developed during the Great Recession, which began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. State tax revenue climbed 6 percent last year, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Total net tax-supported debt for states was virtually unchanged last year at $512.5 billion, down from its 2013 peak of $516 billion, Moody’s estimates. Energy-producing states face budget problems in the wake of oil’s steep price drop. “But I think they will get through them,” Fischer says

A bigger threat for states and cities is ballooningpension和卫生保健退休人员的付款。但国家和地方政府正在努力减少义务。随着伊利诺伊州的显着例外，法院普遍批准了修订，允许各国和城市减少未来退休人员的养老金，但不适合已经退休的人。

“The vast majority of bonds are in very good shape,” Fischer says. “Ratings on states are all very high.” Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s rate every state but Illinois and New Jersey at least double-A.

So it’s no surprise that demand has been strong for munis. Open-end muni mutual funds and exchange-traded funds saw an inflow of $22 billion in the first four months of the year, a record high for the period, according to Morningstar. The Barclays Muni index yielded 1.75 percent May 17, and that’s before the tax exemption generally available for individual U.S. investors.

Meanwhile, new customers are snapping up munis. “A significant amount of traditional buyers, probably 20 to 25 percent, has been replaced by hedge funds,” AllianceBernstein’s Rosenblum says. Traditional buyers are mutual funds and retail investors. Insurance companies, banks, taxable bond funds and international investors are diving into munis too.

分析师表示，世界各地的低利率正在将这些球员推向蒙斯斯。“纽约布莱克布莱克市政债券负责人Peter Hayes说，”持续的屈服。““Munis可能在绝对基础上看起来很丰富，但相对基础是有吸引力的。”巴克莱门尼指数产量为1.75％，几乎与10年的国债收益率为1.76％。“菲舍尔说，”就外国投资者而言，市政债券是专制的。““他们是多元化的好运。”他说，在穆斯蒂斯的外国利益可能会从应税问题蔓延到税收豁免。

When it comes to specific credits, Rosenblum likes a number of munis from California. The state’s school districts benefit from voter approval of a property tax to support their debt, he says. And the state’s economic growth has been strong, though there are signs of a slowdown. Most local governments are highly rated. AllianceBernstein also hold bonds of some publicly owned utilities around the country, including some in California.

鉴于Muni Market的基本面的强大基础知识，它有更多的房间上升，大多数分析师都同意。“市场上的电源与国家和地方政府想要发布的电源有关，”北方信托麦格雷戈说。