Daily Agenda: Another Fed Day Dawns

市场焦急地等待着宣布美国联邦储备this afternoon that broad consensus suggests will produce no interest-rate hike. The suspense, however, is in what the Federal Open Market Committee will say about the future. The dollar rose against most primary currencies on expectations that the committee will assume a mildly hawkish tone. While many economists anticipate another hike in June as employment data continues to exhibit strength, concerns over volatility around the globe and fragility in some sectors, notably energy and industrials, suggest that the Fed may signal a moderation of the pace of tightening; futures markets for federal-funds rates are now pricing in only two increases for 2016. A slower path for rates seems plausible as core inflation appears to be manageable and regional Fed stress indices have receded to more relaxed levels in the past month.

Deutsche Borse and LSE to merge.On Wednesday, theLondon Stock Exchange Groupand Deutsche Borse announced an all-stock merger that will create the largest European securities market with a combined market capitalization exceeding $30 billion. The two exchanges, which publicly acknowledged that talks were under way in February, anticipate savings of $500 million annually through synergies. The transaction will result in a new entity in which LSE shareholders will hold a 45.6 percent stake. The Deutsche Borse traces its roots to the Frankfurt Exchange in the 16th century while the LSE grew from stockbrokers gathering at Jonathan’s Coffee House in London in the late 17th century.

杰弗里斯，摩根士丹利交易结果油漆grim图片。早期的信号是看不见的n主要华尔街银行的第一季度盈利推进。周二，杰弗里斯集团是莱乌达迪亚国家公司的子公司，宣布截至2月29日截至2月29日的财政季度的结果。虽然重点股权职位的标志市场下滑是收益短缺的主要驱动因素，但贸易和咨询收入下降近一半的人在2015年的同一季度。痛苦在股权和固定收入交易中延伸，传统上是公司最强的部门。另外，摩根士丹利在2015年过去三个月开始，第一季度的预期进入平台，令人失望的分析师正在寻求反弹。欧洲银行似乎与Deutsche Bank Co-Ceo John Cryan表示更糟糕的是，德国银行在2016年不太可能恢复盈利。

欧佩克宣布与非成员会面。周二Qatari Energy部长穆罕默德·本斯塔姆·萨萨州宣布成员Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countrieswould meet with major producers that are not members of the group in Doha on April 17 to discuss potential production cuts. The announcement follows comments by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak that Iran is likely to be exempted from any limits until it achieves higher output levels following the lifting of sanctions. Brent grade futures contracts for front-month delivery rose in trading in London on the new to levels above $39 per barrel.

Primaries provide victories for Clinton, Trump as Rubio drops out.希拉里克林顿赢得了周二举办的所有四个民主初学者，包括俄亥俄州和伊利诺伊州的热烈竞争比赛。Donald Trumpemerged victorious in three of the four Republican primaries, including the winner-take-all state of Florida, which provides the real estate developer with 99 delegates. After losing his home state, Florida Senator Marco Rubio announced that he has suspended his presidential campaign. Critically, Ohio Governor John Kasich prevailed in his state against Trump, another winner-take-all primary, potentially setting the stage for a contested GOP convention in Cleveland in June.

卢拉认为回报国家al office.Following criminal charges filed against him as part of the ongoing Petrobras corruption scandal, former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced that he is considering accepting a cabinet position in a return to politics that would represent a defense through offense by the embattled current administration of President Dilma Rouseff. Millions of Brazilians took to the streets in cities across the nation calling for the impeachment of Rousseff, who succeeded Lula. If Lula accepts the position, he will receive immunity from prosecution, sparking concern about political crises that could see further cuts in Brazil’s sovereign credit rating.

Portfolio Perspective: Long-Term Oil Fundamentals Remain Bullish but the Rebound May Not Last

在我们看来，对于粗原油的长期恢复仍然完好无损，鉴于生产下降，钻机数量的历史记者，不断增长的破产等所说的，这一最近的集会就像我们看到的头部假装一样很多去年时间。上周，石油的投机活动从12月低点开始，它最大为期两月，而在上周，它已经反弹甚至更高。布伦特的投机性定位是以来以来的最高水平以来，以来去年5月，只有在过去五年中的9％的时间才能高。在上周，布伦特原油的RSI也达到了超过的水平，自2014年6月以来第一次上涨70。

The IEA sees oil prices bottoming as demand stabilizes and supply declines, amid reports that sell-side brokers are capitulating on bearish views, and that Venezuela will be tendering for U.S. crude exports, all suggesting that the market is starting to turn (both fundamentally and psychologically). In addition, natural gas has stopped making new lows, while demand for gas from power generation has seen significant increases on a weather-adjusted basis and production is starting to decline. Looking forward, the supply/demand imbalance may quickly tighten as weather normalizes and supply falls. Also, note that pipelines continue to be delayed (a couple of examples include the Rover, Atlantic Sunrise and Constitution pipeline projects).

托德哈珀is a fund manager and senior research analyst for energy and commodities with Frost Investment Advisors in San Antonio, Texas.